Middle East Conflict Drives Up Energy Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 8 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy CVX?
Source: Fool
- Energy Companies Benefit: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets, driving up oil and gas prices, with companies like Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, and Chevron expected to see sustained benefits and enhanced profitability through 2026.
- Diamondback Growth Potential: Diamondback Energy anticipates a 9% increase in oil production per share in 2025, followed by another 4% in 2026, and with rising West Texas Intermediate prices, its robust production capabilities are set to drive significant earnings growth.
- Devon Acquisition Impact: Devon Energy plans to complete its acquisition of Coterra Energy in Q2 2026; although the deal was struck before the dramatic price increases, it is expected to positively influence 2026 performance, enhancing market expectations.
- Chevron's Stability: Chevron operates across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, which may limit its upside during price surges, yet its 3.3% dividend yield and consistent dividend growth make it an attractive choice for long-term investors.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 206.900
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 206.900
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Chevron Positioned to Profit from Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have soared past $100 a barrel, reaching their highest level since 2022, with further increases expected, benefiting energy stocks like Chevron, which is well-positioned to capitalize on high oil prices.
- Cash Flow Growth: Chevron anticipates generating $10 billion in incremental free cash flow in 2023, assuming an average oil price of $70 per barrel, while the Hess merger will contribute an additional $2.5 billion, totaling $12.5 billion in cash flow that will significantly enhance the company's financial health.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Last year, Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, and it is expected to continue raising dividends this year while repurchasing shares within its $10 billion to $20 billion target range, further enhancing shareholder value.
- Market Advantage: Chevron's massive global scale and low-cost resources allow it to reap substantial benefits from rising energy prices, with every $1 change in oil prices impacting its annual earnings and cash flow by $600 million, demonstrating its strong resilience against future market fluctuations.
See More
Chevron's Acquisition of Hess Boosts Cash Flow Significantly
- Impact of Hess Acquisition: Chevron's completion of the Hess acquisition in 2025 is expected to add $2.5 billion annually to its cash flow, further solidifying its market position in a high oil price environment.
- Free Cash Flow Expectations: The company anticipates generating $10 billion in incremental free cash flow in 2026, assuming Brent oil averages $70 per barrel, which will significantly enhance its financial health.
- Earnings Sensitivity to Oil Prices: A $1 change in Brent oil prices will increase Chevron's annual earnings and cash flow by $600 million, while a $1 change in LNG prices will add $150 million, demonstrating its high sensitivity to energy price fluctuations.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders last year through dividends and stock buybacks, and it is expected to continue repurchasing shares within its $10 billion to $20 billion annual target range, further boosting shareholder confidence.
See More
Trump Threatens Hard Hits on Iran in Coming Weeks
- Market Reaction: Trump's national address threatening to hit Iran 'extremely hard' led to a significant drop in Asian stocks, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 4.37%, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
- Rising Treasury Yields: Following the speech, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed 6 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting a sell-off in the bond market that could impact future borrowing costs.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures surged 5.37% to $106.59 per barrel, highlighting market concerns over potential disruptions in energy supply, exacerbated by Trump's statements about escalating tensions.
- Currency Market Fluctuations: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.37% to 100.02, while the Japanese yen and South Korean won weakened by 0.38% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating increased confidence in U.S. economic policy amidst regional uncertainties.
See More
Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
- Oil Price Surge: Oil prices surged as President Trump warned of further military action against Iran in the next two to three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising 4.1% to $104.21 per barrel and Brent crude futures increasing 5% to $106.42 per barrel, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Shipping Resumption: The Liberia-flagged crude oil tanker Shenlong Suezmax successfully docked at Mumbai Port after navigating the high-risk Strait of Hormuz, indicating a recovery in tanker movements amidst escalating West Asia conflict, potentially alleviating market concerns over supply disruptions.
- Trump's Hardline Stance: Trump stated in a national address that the U.S. would
See More
U.S. Markets Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Situation
- Market Optimism: All three major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.72% and 1.16%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 224.23 points or 0.48%, reflecting heightened investor optimism regarding a potential end to the U.S.-Iran war.
- Trump's Address Anticipation: President Trump is expected to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight to provide updates on the Iran ceasefire talks, with market participants closely monitoring the speech for potential impacts on stock prices.
- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
- Tech Company Developments: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, setting the stage for a record offering, following a significant funding round for OpenAI, indicating strong activity and investor confidence in the tech sector, which may drive related stock prices higher.
See More
Chevron Positioned to Profit from Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude oil prices have soared past $100 a barrel, reaching their highest level since 2022, with further increases expected, benefiting energy stocks like Chevron, which is well-positioned to capitalize on high oil prices.
- Cash Flow Growth: Chevron anticipates generating $10 billion in incremental free cash flow in 2023, assuming an average oil price of $70 per barrel, while the Hess merger will contribute an additional $2.5 billion, totaling $12.5 billion in cash flow that will significantly enhance the company's financial health.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Last year, Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, and it is expected to continue raising dividends this year while repurchasing shares within its $10 billion to $20 billion target range, further enhancing shareholder value.
- Market Advantage: Chevron's massive global scale and low-cost resources allow it to reap substantial benefits from rising energy prices, with every $1 change in oil prices impacting its annual earnings and cash flow by $600 million, demonstrating its strong resilience against future market fluctuations.
See More
Chevron's Acquisition of Hess Boosts Cash Flow Significantly
- Impact of Hess Acquisition: Chevron's completion of the Hess acquisition in 2025 is expected to add $2.5 billion annually to its cash flow, further solidifying its market position in a high oil price environment.
- Free Cash Flow Expectations: The company anticipates generating $10 billion in incremental free cash flow in 2026, assuming Brent oil averages $70 per barrel, which will significantly enhance its financial health.
- Earnings Sensitivity to Oil Prices: A $1 change in Brent oil prices will increase Chevron's annual earnings and cash flow by $600 million, while a $1 change in LNG prices will add $150 million, demonstrating its high sensitivity to energy price fluctuations.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders last year through dividends and stock buybacks, and it is expected to continue repurchasing shares within its $10 billion to $20 billion annual target range, further boosting shareholder confidence.
See More
Trump Threatens Hard Hits on Iran in Coming Weeks
- Market Reaction: Trump's national address threatening to hit Iran 'extremely hard' led to a significant drop in Asian stocks, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 4.37%, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
- Rising Treasury Yields: Following the speech, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed 6 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting a sell-off in the bond market that could impact future borrowing costs.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures surged 5.37% to $106.59 per barrel, highlighting market concerns over potential disruptions in energy supply, exacerbated by Trump's statements about escalating tensions.
- Currency Market Fluctuations: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.37% to 100.02, while the Japanese yen and South Korean won weakened by 0.38% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating increased confidence in U.S. economic policy amidst regional uncertainties.
See More
Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
- Oil Price Surge: Oil prices surged as President Trump warned of further military action against Iran in the next two to three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising 4.1% to $104.21 per barrel and Brent crude futures increasing 5% to $106.42 per barrel, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Shipping Resumption: The Liberia-flagged crude oil tanker Shenlong Suezmax successfully docked at Mumbai Port after navigating the high-risk Strait of Hormuz, indicating a recovery in tanker movements amidst escalating West Asia conflict, potentially alleviating market concerns over supply disruptions.
- Trump's Hardline Stance: Trump stated in a national address that the U.S. would
See More
U.S. Markets Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Situation
- Market Optimism: All three major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.72% and 1.16%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 224.23 points or 0.48%, reflecting heightened investor optimism regarding a potential end to the U.S.-Iran war.
- Trump's Address Anticipation: President Trump is expected to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight to provide updates on the Iran ceasefire talks, with market participants closely monitoring the speech for potential impacts on stock prices.
- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
- Tech Company Developments: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, setting the stage for a record offering, following a significant funding round for OpenAI, indicating strong activity and investor confidence in the tech sector, which may drive related stock prices higher.
See More
