McDonald's Profit Model and Future Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy MCD?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Franchise Model: McDonald's primarily generates revenue from franchise fees, rent, and royalties, with approximately 95% of its locations operating as franchises, creating an asset-light business model that drives high return on invested capital and enhances profitability.
- Expansion Plans: Last year, McDonald's opened 2,275 new locations and plans to open 2,600 more by 2026, aiming to reach approximately 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027, which will further increase market share and profitability.
- Sales Growth Performance: In the fourth quarter of 2025, McDonald's reported a 5.7% comparable sales growth driven by increased guest counts, demonstrating its appeal as a cost leader during economic downturns.
- Dividend Growth Potential: Known for nearly five decades of uninterrupted annual dividend increases, McDonald's stock may not make investors rich overnight, but its long-term investment potential remains strong, reflecting its stable business model and market position.
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Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 306.260
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 306.260
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment comprises markets or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment comprises development licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Market Competition: McDonald's has confirmed the rollout of handcrafted sodas and refreshers next month, with flavored energy drinks to follow in summer, posing a potential threat to Dutch Bros, which has built its reputation on creative beverages popular among younger consumers.
- Dutch Bros' Growth Journey: Founded 34 years ago, Dutch Bros now operates over 1,000 locations across nearly half of U.S. states, with coffee accounting for about 50% of sales and its proprietary Blue Rebel energy drinks making up 25%, showcasing its strong growth potential in the beverage market.
- McDonald's Market Strategy: McDonald's previously launched the CosMc's concept in Illinois focusing on artisan beverages, and although it closed some locations early on, its strategy to test premium drinks nationwide indicates a serious commitment to the beverage market, which could further impact Dutch Bros' market share.
- Dutch Bros Financial Performance: Despite a generally positive market, Dutch Bros' stock has declined 6% this week, reflecting investor concerns about future growth under pressure from larger competitors like McDonald's, even as it reported a 29% revenue increase and a 7.7% rise in same-store sales in its latest quarter.
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- Retail Price Increase: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the retail price of ground beef for hamburgers rose to approximately $6.70 per pound in March, a 12% increase from the previous year, directly impacting consumer plans for summer barbecues.
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- Increased Economic Risks: This tariff threat not only poses operational challenges for global retail giants like Nike but also raises investor concerns about the economic repercussions of the ongoing Middle East conflict, adding layers of uncertainty to the market.
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- Increased Market Competition: McDonald's has confirmed the rollout of handcrafted sodas and refreshers next month, with flavored energy drinks to follow in summer, posing a potential threat to Dutch Bros, which has built its reputation on creative beverages popular among younger consumers.
- Dutch Bros' Growth Journey: Founded 34 years ago, Dutch Bros now operates over 1,000 locations across nearly half of U.S. states, with coffee accounting for about 50% of sales and its proprietary Blue Rebel energy drinks making up 25%, showcasing its strong growth potential in the beverage market.
- McDonald's Market Strategy: McDonald's previously launched the CosMc's concept in Illinois focusing on artisan beverages, and although it closed some locations early on, its strategy to test premium drinks nationwide indicates a serious commitment to the beverage market, which could further impact Dutch Bros' market share.
- Dutch Bros Financial Performance: Despite a generally positive market, Dutch Bros' stock has declined 6% this week, reflecting investor concerns about future growth under pressure from larger competitors like McDonald's, even as it reported a 29% revenue increase and a 7.7% rise in same-store sales in its latest quarter.
See More
Beef Prices Hit All-Time Highs Amid Supply Constraints
- Futures Price Surge: On Tuesday, live cattle futures at the CME Group settled at $2.51 per pound, marking the highest price on record since the 1960s, driven by rising ranching costs and herd reductions, with prices increasing over 25% in the past year.
- Slaughter Volume Decline: Barclays estimates that cattle slaughter is expected to fall to 2.2 million head in March, down from 2.5 million a year earlier, resulting in a 300,000-pound drop in beef production to 1.9 million pounds, exacerbating supply constraints in the market.
- Retail Price Increase: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average retail price of ground beef for hamburgers reached approximately $6.70 per pound in March, reflecting a 12% increase from the same month last year, leading to higher costs for consumers planning summer barbecues.
- Financial Strain on Farmers: A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation revealed that nearly 60% of U.S. farmers reported worsening financial conditions, with many unable to afford the necessary fertilizer for their fields, highlighting the broader impact of rising agricultural production costs on farmers.
See More
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- Beef Price Surge: Live cattle futures reached $2.51 per pound on Tuesday, marking the highest price since the 1960s according to FactSet, driven by rising ranching costs and herd reductions, indicating a significant supply constraint.
- Slaughter Volume Decline: Cattle slaughter is expected to drop to 2.2 million head in March from 2.5 million a year earlier, with Barclays estimating a 300,000-pound decrease in beef production to 1.9 million pounds, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in the market.
- Retail Price Increase: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the retail price of ground beef for hamburgers rose to approximately $6.70 per pound in March, a 12% increase from the previous year, directly impacting consumer plans for summer barbecues.
- Financial Strain on Farmers: A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation revealed that nearly 60% of U.S. farmers reported worsening financial conditions, with many unable to afford the necessary fertilizers, highlighting the broader inflationary pressures affecting agricultural production.
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- High Volume Put Option: Among KLA's options, the $1350 strike put option stands out with 2,001 contracts traded today, equating to approximately 200,100 shares, reflecting investor expectations of a potential decline in the stock's value.
- Uber Options Activity: Uber Technologies Inc (Ticker: UBER) experienced an options trading volume of 83,842 contracts today, representing around 8.4 million shares, or about 55.8% of its average daily trading volume of 15 million shares over the past month, showcasing strong investor interest in its market performance.
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- White House Publicity Effect: Trump's ordering of McDonald's through DoorDash at the White House garnered media attention, yet it failed to significantly boost DoorDash's stock price, with McDonald's shares falling nearly 0.4% post-event, indicating a complex market reaction.
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- Increased Economic Risks: This tariff threat not only poses operational challenges for global retail giants like Nike but also raises investor concerns about the economic repercussions of the ongoing Middle East conflict, adding layers of uncertainty to the market.
- Market Reaction: Although Trump labeled the underlying reports as potentially 'fake news', the market's reaction indicates a heightened sensitivity among investors regarding future trade relations, which could lead to increased volatility in stock prices.
- Geopolitical Implications: Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East, Trump's tariff threat introduces new risks to the global economy, potentially affecting U.S.-China diplomatic relations and their competitiveness in international markets.
See More
