Market Update: SpaceX IPO and Oil Price Fluctuations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 12 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: Stocks were mixed on Friday as investors weighed the possibility of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran against the backdrop of the upcoming SpaceX IPO, with Trump warning Iran to 'get their act together', yet the market remains optimistic about a potential agreement.
- SpaceX IPO Focus: Priced at $135 per share, SpaceX's IPO is expected to open around $165, with Jim Cramer noting strong demand and suggesting that the market may absorb this massive deal better than anticipated, advising investors to wait for a trading history before buying.
- Intel Stock Surge: Intel shares rose 5% on Friday, adding to a 9% gain on Thursday following a double upgrade from Bank of America analysts, with Jim calling Intel 'the greatest story right now' in semiconductors and projecting a 63% upside potential.
- Quick Stock Recap: Other stocks mentioned at the end of the video included Williams Sonoma, AMD, Arm, and Lennar, with Jim Cramer's charitable trust holding INTC, LIN, and NVDA, providing trade alerts to subscribers before executing trades.
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Analyst Views on SPCX
Wall Street analysts forecast SPCX stock price to rise
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Current: 149.470
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Current: 149.470
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About SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft. The Company's segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SpaceX Stock Falls Below Critical Support Line
- Technical Support Breach: SpaceX's stock has closed below the $150 'Genesis Line' for two consecutive trading sessions, indicating a critical technical juncture that could lead to a retest of the IPO price near $135.
- Market Behavior Pattern: According to The Chart Report, many high-profile IPOs often fall below their anchored volume-weighted average price shortly after listing, typically taking four to six weeks to build a base before reclaiming that level, similar to the patterns seen with Palantir and CoreWeave.
- Options Activity Signal: Heavy put option activity in SpaceX shares indicates protection rather than pessimism, as early venture capital investors with substantial gains are driving elevated put volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding future price movements.
- Nasdaq-100 Impact: The recent weakness following SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 illustrates traders adjusting positions ahead of an anticipated price increase that did not materialize, while future inclusion in the S&P 500 is expected to trigger a significantly larger market response.
See More
SpaceX to Acquire Anysphere for $60 Billion
- Acquisition Context: SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding platform Cursor, marking a significant pivot towards AI following its IPO, although the immediate impact on stock performance has been limited.
- Shareholder Impact: The acquisition will increase SpaceX's share count by approximately 3%, or 365.9 million shares, relative to its current diluted share count of 13.2 billion, indicating a relatively minor dilution for existing investors and showcasing the deal's financing rationale.
- Market Competition: Once the acquisition closes, SpaceX plans to integrate Cursor's AI coding tool into its xAI platform, which could enhance its competitiveness against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, although it still faces significant competitive pressures in the AI coding space.
- Future Outlook: While Cursor is currently unprofitable and expected to add to SpaceX's overall losses, the market remains optimistic about SpaceX's potential in the AI sector, with key projects like Starlink and Starship likely to have a more substantial impact on stock performance in the near term.
See More
Trump Declares End of Middle East Ceasefire Amid NATO Criticism
- Ceasefire Declared Over: Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran during the NATO summit, citing renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to fresh U.S. airstrikes, significantly destabilizing the Middle East situation.
- NATO Allies Criticized: Trump criticized NATO allies for insufficient defense spending, particularly targeting Spain with threats to cut off trade, which could strain U.S.-Spain relations and impact global trade dynamics.
- Market Reaction Notable: Trump's comments and U.S. military actions caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to drop, while Brent crude futures surged 5.43% to $78.19 per barrel, indicating the market's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions.
- Fed Policy Divergence: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve revealed internal divisions regarding future interest rates, with some officials suggesting easing inflation could lead to lower rates, while others anticipated the opposite, highlighting economic policy uncertainty.
See More
Oil Prices Surge Amid Tech Stock Volatility
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude futures surpassed $80 on Wednesday, primarily driven by U.S. military actions against Iran, with the energy sector being the top performer of the day, up 1.45%, indicating strong market reactions to energy demand.
- Tech Stock Volatility: Nvidia's stock is down 14% from its May high, while AMD, Applied Materials, and Micron Technology have seen declines of 11.5%, 22%, and 24% respectively, reflecting investor caution towards tech stocks that may influence future investment decisions.
- PepsiCo Earnings Preview: PepsiCo is set to report earnings on Thursday, with its stock down about 8% over the past three months and 17% from its 52-week high, which could affect market perceptions of its future growth potential.
- Blue Origin Funding: Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin secured a $4 billion investment from Coatue Management as part of a new $10 billion fundraising round, expected to value the company at $130 billion, showcasing the investment enthusiasm and growth potential in the space industry.
See More
Analysis of SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 Index Performance
- Forced Buying Effect: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 triggered billions in forced buying, yet the stock price fell about 6% within a day, indicating market skepticism about its high valuation.
- Market Reaction Analysis: While joining the Nasdaq-100 typically boosts stock demand, SpaceX's shares are trading below their IPO starting price, reflecting investor concerns over its future profitability, especially as the company remains unprofitable.
- Revenue vs. Loss Comparison: In 2025, SpaceX generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue, a 33% increase, but reported a net loss of $4.9 billion, highlighting potential financial risks behind its high market cap, necessitating cautious evaluation of its growth sustainability.
- Valuation Challenges: With a market cap of about $1.9 trillion, SpaceX's strong Starlink performance is overshadowed by a staggering 100 times sales valuation, meaning any operational missteps could lead to significant stock price fluctuations, prompting investors to monitor its profitability improvements closely.
See More
Flood of New Stock and Bond Issuance Threatens Bull Market
- Market Supply Pressure: Jim Cramer highlighted that the stock and bond markets are facing significant pressure from a flood of new issuances, including Alphabet's stock sale and SpaceX's $85 billion IPO, which could push demand to its limits and threaten the sustainability of the bull market.
- Rivian Discount Offering Warning: Cramer noted that Rivian's discounted stock offering suggests that the market may no longer be willing to absorb new equity at lofty valuations, raising concerns among investors about future issuances and increasing selling pressure in the market.
- Impact of SK Hynix Listing: Cramer expressed concerns over SK Hynix's planned $28 billion Nasdaq listing, suggesting that it may force institutions to sell existing holdings to make room, potentially exacerbating selling pressure elsewhere in the market.
- Fragile Balance of the Bull Market: Although the market has not yet reached a breaking point, Cramer warned that if new issuances continue at the current pace, the bull market could face severe oversupply risks, urging a pause in IPOs and secondary market activities to maintain market stability.
See More
SpaceX Stock Falls Below Critical Support Line
- Technical Support Breach: SpaceX's stock has closed below the $150 'Genesis Line' for two consecutive trading sessions, indicating a critical technical juncture that could lead to a retest of the IPO price near $135.
- Market Behavior Pattern: According to The Chart Report, many high-profile IPOs often fall below their anchored volume-weighted average price shortly after listing, typically taking four to six weeks to build a base before reclaiming that level, similar to the patterns seen with Palantir and CoreWeave.
- Options Activity Signal: Heavy put option activity in SpaceX shares indicates protection rather than pessimism, as early venture capital investors with substantial gains are driving elevated put volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding future price movements.
- Nasdaq-100 Impact: The recent weakness following SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 illustrates traders adjusting positions ahead of an anticipated price increase that did not materialize, while future inclusion in the S&P 500 is expected to trigger a significantly larger market response.
See More
SpaceX to Acquire Anysphere for $60 Billion
- Acquisition Context: SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the AI coding platform Cursor, marking a significant pivot towards AI following its IPO, although the immediate impact on stock performance has been limited.
- Shareholder Impact: The acquisition will increase SpaceX's share count by approximately 3%, or 365.9 million shares, relative to its current diluted share count of 13.2 billion, indicating a relatively minor dilution for existing investors and showcasing the deal's financing rationale.
- Market Competition: Once the acquisition closes, SpaceX plans to integrate Cursor's AI coding tool into its xAI platform, which could enhance its competitiveness against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, although it still faces significant competitive pressures in the AI coding space.
- Future Outlook: While Cursor is currently unprofitable and expected to add to SpaceX's overall losses, the market remains optimistic about SpaceX's potential in the AI sector, with key projects like Starlink and Starship likely to have a more substantial impact on stock performance in the near term.
See More
Trump Declares End of Middle East Ceasefire Amid NATO Criticism
- Ceasefire Declared Over: Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran during the NATO summit, citing renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to fresh U.S. airstrikes, significantly destabilizing the Middle East situation.
- NATO Allies Criticized: Trump criticized NATO allies for insufficient defense spending, particularly targeting Spain with threats to cut off trade, which could strain U.S.-Spain relations and impact global trade dynamics.
- Market Reaction Notable: Trump's comments and U.S. military actions caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to drop, while Brent crude futures surged 5.43% to $78.19 per barrel, indicating the market's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions.
- Fed Policy Divergence: Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve revealed internal divisions regarding future interest rates, with some officials suggesting easing inflation could lead to lower rates, while others anticipated the opposite, highlighting economic policy uncertainty.
See More
Oil Prices Surge Amid Tech Stock Volatility
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude futures surpassed $80 on Wednesday, primarily driven by U.S. military actions against Iran, with the energy sector being the top performer of the day, up 1.45%, indicating strong market reactions to energy demand.
- Tech Stock Volatility: Nvidia's stock is down 14% from its May high, while AMD, Applied Materials, and Micron Technology have seen declines of 11.5%, 22%, and 24% respectively, reflecting investor caution towards tech stocks that may influence future investment decisions.
- PepsiCo Earnings Preview: PepsiCo is set to report earnings on Thursday, with its stock down about 8% over the past three months and 17% from its 52-week high, which could affect market perceptions of its future growth potential.
- Blue Origin Funding: Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin secured a $4 billion investment from Coatue Management as part of a new $10 billion fundraising round, expected to value the company at $130 billion, showcasing the investment enthusiasm and growth potential in the space industry.
See More
Analysis of SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 Index Performance
- Forced Buying Effect: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 triggered billions in forced buying, yet the stock price fell about 6% within a day, indicating market skepticism about its high valuation.
- Market Reaction Analysis: While joining the Nasdaq-100 typically boosts stock demand, SpaceX's shares are trading below their IPO starting price, reflecting investor concerns over its future profitability, especially as the company remains unprofitable.
- Revenue vs. Loss Comparison: In 2025, SpaceX generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue, a 33% increase, but reported a net loss of $4.9 billion, highlighting potential financial risks behind its high market cap, necessitating cautious evaluation of its growth sustainability.
- Valuation Challenges: With a market cap of about $1.9 trillion, SpaceX's strong Starlink performance is overshadowed by a staggering 100 times sales valuation, meaning any operational missteps could lead to significant stock price fluctuations, prompting investors to monitor its profitability improvements closely.
See More
Flood of New Stock and Bond Issuance Threatens Bull Market
- Market Supply Pressure: Jim Cramer highlighted that the stock and bond markets are facing significant pressure from a flood of new issuances, including Alphabet's stock sale and SpaceX's $85 billion IPO, which could push demand to its limits and threaten the sustainability of the bull market.
- Rivian Discount Offering Warning: Cramer noted that Rivian's discounted stock offering suggests that the market may no longer be willing to absorb new equity at lofty valuations, raising concerns among investors about future issuances and increasing selling pressure in the market.
- Impact of SK Hynix Listing: Cramer expressed concerns over SK Hynix's planned $28 billion Nasdaq listing, suggesting that it may force institutions to sell existing holdings to make room, potentially exacerbating selling pressure elsewhere in the market.
- Fragile Balance of the Bull Market: Although the market has not yet reached a breaking point, Cramer warned that if new issuances continue at the current pace, the bull market could face severe oversupply risks, urging a pause in IPOs and secondary market activities to maintain market stability.
See More
