Major Averages Rise Following Fed Meeting Minutes
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
The major averages finished broadly higher following the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, with earlier gains supported by optimism around corporate earnings, particularly in technology and select cyclical segments.According to the Fed minutes, several participants indicated that they would have "supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions," reflecting the possibility of "upward adjustments" in the federal funds rate. Additionally, Fed members said that cutting rates further could be "misinterpreted" as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective.Looking to commodities, gold was sharply higher, rebounding from yesterday's losses as the "safe haven" asset continues to have a tumultuous year. Oil was also sharply higher as well.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:Berkshire Hathawayin New York Timesand cut its stake in AmazonPalo Alto Networksreportedand cut its FY26 earnings outlookModernasaid the FDA willof its seasonal influenza vaccine submissionMSG Sportsisthat would separate its New York Knicks business from its New York Rangers businessmeeting show that participants see the possibility of a rate increase2. WALL STREET CALLS:Palantirto Outperform from Neutral at MizuhoBioAge Labsto Buy from Hold at JefferiesWorkdayto Market Perform at CitizensGenuine Partsto Hold from Buy at TruistWilliams TradingCrocsto Sell on eroding U.S. demand3. AROUND THE WEB:Microsoftpresident Brad Smith told CNBC that U.S. tech firms should "worry a little bit" about the subsidies their Chinese competitors receive from their government in the AI raceActivist investor Starboard Value is asking Riot Platformsto speed up its transition from Bitcoin miner to a data center company that could house hyperscaler tenants, Bloomberg saysJPMorgan Chaseintends to open over 160 branches in 30 states in 2026 as the company further invests in its brick-and-mortar network, FT reportsMicrosoftis on pace to invest $50B by the end of the decade to help AI expand to countries across the 'Global South,' specifically emerging or lower-income countries in the southern hemisphere, Reuters saysAT&Tis being sued by NYC pension funds for blocking a shareholder vote on workforce diversity disclosures, Reuters says4. MOVERS:Sabreincreases afterand naming Shawn Williams as Chief Commercial OfficerImmunitygains after the European Commissionfor AnktivaMister Car Washand Caesarshigher afterAxcelisfalls afterand providing guidance for Q1HF Sinclairlower afterand announcing the departure of CEO Tim Go5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:Insuletand provided guidance for FY26LCI Industries, with CEO Jason Lippert commenting, "We delivered a very strong 2025"Clean Harbors, with EPS and revenue beating consensusWingstopand provided guidance for FY26, with CEO Michael Skipworth commenting, "Our team continues to demonstrate operational excellence as we opened 493 net new restaurants and expanded into six new international markets"JLL, with EPS and revenue beating consensusINDEXES:The Dow rose 129.47, or 0.26%, to 49,662.66, the Nasdaq gained 175.25, or 0.78%, to 22,753.64, and the S&P 500 advanced 38.09, or 0.56%, to 6,881.31.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 422.790
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 422.790
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company. The Company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The Company’s segments include Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services. This segment primarily comprises: Office Commercial, Office Consumer, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business solutions. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of server products and cloud services, including Azure and other cloud services, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related Client Access Licenses (CALs), and Nuance and GitHub; and Enterprise Services, including enterprise support services, industry solutions and Nuance professional services. The More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows, Devices, Gaming, and search and news advertising.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Microsoft Stock Down 22% Faces Challenges Ahead of Earnings
- Cloud Backlog Concerns: Microsoft has a staggering $625 billion cloud order backlog, with $281 billion attributed to OpenAI, which has reduced its computing capacity spending forecast, leading to decreased market confidence in the backlog and potential revenue growth.
- Upcoming Earnings Report: Microsoft is set to release its fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings on April 29, with investors eager for updates on AI products like Copilot and the Azure cloud platform to assess market performance and growth potential.
- Copilot Adoption Surge: As of December 31, Copilot licenses sold for enterprise 365 reached 15 million, representing a modest 3.7% penetration but showing a robust 160% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Valuation Appeal: With a current P/E ratio of 26.4, below its five-year average of 32.9, Microsoft stock appears undervalued, and if the earnings report alleviates backlog concerns, the stock could rebound significantly, offering substantial returns for investors.
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- Intensifying Industry Competition: With AI-focused companies like Anthropic and OpenAI developing tools that require no human input for creative and marketing tasks, Adobe faces increasing competitive pressure, compelling it to accelerate its pace of technological innovation.
- Strategic Partnerships: Adobe is partnering with Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia to enhance the cross-platform application of its AI capabilities, ensuring it maintains a competitive edge in the market.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite these initiatives, Adobe's stock has fallen this year amid concerns that AI could disrupt software models faster than anticipated, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding its future performance.
See More
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- Growing AI Demand: Despite potential job cuts due to AI, Jha envisions that the emergence of more AI agents could increase software demand, as each agent would require access to software, thereby creating new revenue opportunities for companies.
- Sustained License Demand: Jha emphasizes that even if job numbers decline, the demand for per-seat licenses may persist, suggesting that software companies still have growth potential, particularly those offering services on a per-seat basis.
- Attractive Microsoft Valuation: With Microsoft's current price-to-earnings ratio at 26 times, down from nearly 40 last year, the stock's pullback has significantly enhanced its investment appeal, making it a compelling option for long-term investors to consider increasing their holdings.
See More
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- Software Demand Outlook: Microsoft executive Rajesh Jha believes that as AI agents proliferate, demand for software may actually increase despite potential job cuts, as each agent will require its own login credentials, creating more seat opportunities.
- Market Rebound Potential: Although the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has declined nearly 20% this year, Jha points out that demand for software licenses may remain strong, presenting attractive buying opportunities for investors amid the current market downturn.
- Microsoft Stock Valuation: Microsoft's stock is currently trading at 26 times its trailing earnings, a significant drop from nearly 40 times last year, making it a more compelling investment choice, especially in the context of bearish market sentiment.
- Importance of Investor Patience: While Microsoft did not make the Motley Fool's list of top stocks, for investors willing to be patient, the current market correction may offer opportunities for substantial returns in the future.
See More
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- Upcoming Earnings Report: Microsoft is set to release its fiscal Q3 results on April 29, with Morgan Stanley's analyst Keith Weiss suggesting that despite supply constraints and GPU allocation issues, the tech giant may look to 'take back the narrative,' indicating resilience in commercial demand.
- Revenue Growth Performance: Last quarter, Microsoft achieved mid-teens revenue growth with expanding operating margins, and forward indicators show a 110% YoY growth in recurring revenue (RPO) to approximately $625 billion, reflecting continued strength across its commercial portfolio.
- Azure Growth Potential: While Azure's growth is constrained by capacity availability rather than demand, analysts expect a growth rate around 39%, which would be seen as a positive sign, especially as Microsoft continues to invest aggressively in AI infrastructure.
- Copilot Product Outlook: With improvements in the Copilot product, Microsoft is likely to enhance market sentiment and further penetrate its broader installed base on top of the new 15 million paid Copilot seats from last quarter, driving ongoing business growth.
See More
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- Cloud Backlog Concerns: Microsoft has a staggering $625 billion cloud order backlog, with $281 billion attributed to OpenAI, which has reduced its computing capacity spending forecast, leading to decreased market confidence in the backlog and potential revenue growth.
- Upcoming Earnings Report: Microsoft is set to release its fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings on April 29, with investors eager for updates on AI products like Copilot and the Azure cloud platform to assess market performance and growth potential.
- Copilot Adoption Surge: As of December 31, Copilot licenses sold for enterprise 365 reached 15 million, representing a modest 3.7% penetration but showing a robust 160% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
- Valuation Appeal: With a current P/E ratio of 26.4, below its five-year average of 32.9, Microsoft stock appears undervalued, and if the earnings report alleviates backlog concerns, the stock could rebound significantly, offering substantial returns for investors.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge Impacts Markets: The S&P 500 index fell 0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.31%, and the Nasdaq 100 index declined 0.66% as WTI crude oil prices surged over 5%, indicating market sensitivity to rising energy costs amid doubts about peace talks regarding the Iran war.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised market concerns, especially following U.S. Navy actions against Iranian tankers, which could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, further increasing market uncertainty.
- Earnings Season Continues: So far, 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beaten estimates, with Q1 earnings projected to rise 12% year-over-year; however, excluding the tech sector, the growth is only 3%, indicating signs of overall economic weakness.
- Airline Stocks Under Pressure: Airline and cruise line stocks are broadly down due to rising oil prices, with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings down over 5% and American Airlines Group down over 4%, reflecting the negative impact of high fuel costs on company profits.
See More
Adobe Launches AI Tools to Enhance Customer Interactions
- AI Tool Launch: Adobe has introduced CX Enterprise, aimed at automating digital marketing through AI agents from content development to client engagement, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing manual labor costs to adapt to a rapidly changing technological landscape.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: With AI-focused companies like Anthropic and OpenAI developing tools that require no human input for creative and marketing tasks, Adobe faces increasing competitive pressure, compelling it to accelerate its pace of technological innovation.
- Strategic Partnerships: Adobe is partnering with Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia to enhance the cross-platform application of its AI capabilities, ensuring it maintains a competitive edge in the market.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite these initiatives, Adobe's stock has fallen this year amid concerns that AI could disrupt software models faster than anticipated, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding its future performance.
See More
Microsoft Executive Sees Growth Opportunities Amid AI Concerns
- Market Overreaction: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has declined nearly 20% this year, indicating that investor pessimism towards software stocks may be exaggerated, as evidenced by Microsoft's 13% stock drop, yet executive Rajesh Jha believes this presents a great buying opportunity for patient investors.
- Growing AI Demand: Despite potential job cuts due to AI, Jha envisions that the emergence of more AI agents could increase software demand, as each agent would require access to software, thereby creating new revenue opportunities for companies.
- Sustained License Demand: Jha emphasizes that even if job numbers decline, the demand for per-seat licenses may persist, suggesting that software companies still have growth potential, particularly those offering services on a per-seat basis.
- Attractive Microsoft Valuation: With Microsoft's current price-to-earnings ratio at 26 times, down from nearly 40 last year, the stock's pullback has significantly enhanced its investment appeal, making it a compelling option for long-term investors to consider increasing their holdings.
See More
Microsoft Executive Optimistic About AI Impact
- Software Demand Outlook: Microsoft executive Rajesh Jha believes that as AI agents proliferate, demand for software may actually increase despite potential job cuts, as each agent will require its own login credentials, creating more seat opportunities.
- Market Rebound Potential: Although the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has declined nearly 20% this year, Jha points out that demand for software licenses may remain strong, presenting attractive buying opportunities for investors amid the current market downturn.
- Microsoft Stock Valuation: Microsoft's stock is currently trading at 26 times its trailing earnings, a significant drop from nearly 40 times last year, making it a more compelling investment choice, especially in the context of bearish market sentiment.
- Importance of Investor Patience: While Microsoft did not make the Motley Fool's list of top stocks, for investors willing to be patient, the current market correction may offer opportunities for substantial returns in the future.
See More
Microsoft Set to Report Q3 Results Amid Investor Caution
- Upcoming Earnings Report: Microsoft is set to release its fiscal Q3 results on April 29, with Morgan Stanley's analyst Keith Weiss suggesting that despite supply constraints and GPU allocation issues, the tech giant may look to 'take back the narrative,' indicating resilience in commercial demand.
- Revenue Growth Performance: Last quarter, Microsoft achieved mid-teens revenue growth with expanding operating margins, and forward indicators show a 110% YoY growth in recurring revenue (RPO) to approximately $625 billion, reflecting continued strength across its commercial portfolio.
- Azure Growth Potential: While Azure's growth is constrained by capacity availability rather than demand, analysts expect a growth rate around 39%, which would be seen as a positive sign, especially as Microsoft continues to invest aggressively in AI infrastructure.
- Copilot Product Outlook: With improvements in the Copilot product, Microsoft is likely to enhance market sentiment and further penetrate its broader installed base on top of the new 15 million paid Copilot seats from last quarter, driving ongoing business growth.
See More
