M Stanley: ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK) Exceeds Full-Year Net Profit Forecast
Financial Performance: ZIJIN GOLD INTL announced a preliminary net profit for 2025 of US$1.5-1.6 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 212-233%, surpassing market expectations of US$1.35 billion.
Quarterly Growth: The implied profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between US$595-695 million, significantly higher than the US$385 million reported in Q3 2025, driven by the integration of the RG project and rising gold prices.
Gold Production: The company's gold output for 2025 is expected to reach 46.5 metric tons, an increase from 38.9 metric tons in 2024, aligning with management's forecast of approximately 47 metric tons.
Future Projections: For 2026, ZIJIN GOLD INTL has set a production target of 57 metric tons of gold, slightly above the market consensus of 56.7 metric tons.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 02259
About the author
UBS Maintains Buy Rating for ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK) as 2025 Profits Exceed Expectations
Company Performance: Zijin Gold International reported a 233% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, reaching $1.6 billion, exceeding market expectations by $300 million according to UBS.
Dividends and Payout Ratio: The company announced a full-year dividend per share of $1.5, with a payout ratio of below 32%, comparable to Zijin Mining's 31%.
Market Sentiment: Recent gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict and oil price fluctuations, which may negatively affect gold miners' market sentiment.
Analyst Outlook: UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold prices, suggesting that current share price weaknesses present a buying opportunity for gold miners, with a target price set at $297.
HSI Soars 385 Points at Midday, Driven by Chinese Insurers and Financials; POP MART Rises Over 5%
Market Performance: The HSI rose 1.5% to 26,945, with significant gains in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total half-day turnover reached $136.256 billion.
Insurance Sector Gains: Chinese insurers like CHINA LIFE and PING AN saw increases of 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively, following PING AN's stake increase in CHINA LIFE.
Financial Stocks Surge: Major financial stocks including HSBC and HKEX experienced gains between 2.6% and 3.0%, contributing to a positive market sentiment.
Consumer Stocks Rally: Companies like POP MART and CTG DUTY-FREE reported substantial increases, with POP MART noted for its potential upside based on investor positions and upcoming product designs.
ZIJIN MINING Drops 7% as Spot Gold Dips Below USD 4.5K
Gold and Silver Prices Decline: Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping to USD4,532.29, down 7.24%, while silver also decreased to USD75.97, down 11.1%, as institutional investors expressed caution about the short-term trends in precious metals.
Futures Market Movement: Gold futures for February delivery decreased by 3.6% to USD4,545, and silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.9% to USD77.03, indicating a continued downward trend in the market.
Impact on Hong Kong-listed Gold Miners: Hong Kong-listed gold mining companies experienced substantial losses, with ZIJIN MINING down 7.02%, ZIJIN GOLD INTL down 8.33%, and SD GOLD down 12.29%, reflecting the broader decline in precious metal prices.
Short Selling Activity: There was notable short selling activity among gold mining stocks, with significant amounts reported for various companies, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors in the sector.
HSI Drops 498 Points at Noon; Commodity Shares Tumble; CSPC Pharma Falls Over 12%
Market Reaction to Fed Chair Nominee: The DXY rose following President Trump's announcement of the Fed Chair nominee, while the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, with the HSI dropping 498 points or 1.8% by the morning session's close.
Gold and Mining Stocks Performance: Gold prices fell over 3%, leading to substantial losses in mining stocks such as SD GOLD and ZIJIN GOLD, which plunged 12.9% and 10% respectively, alongside other mining companies experiencing similar declines.
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments: CSPC PHARMA's stock plummeted 12.5% despite a partnership with AstraZeneca for drug development, which included an upfront payment exceeding HKD9.3 billion.
Corporate News and Market Rumors: The Panama Supreme Court ruled contracts for two local ports unconstitutional, negatively impacting CKH HOLDINGS, while rumors of a potential ownership change at NEW WORLD DEV led to a 3.7% increase in its stock price.
Net Inflow of HKD800.5M in Southbound Trading for TENCENT
Southbound Trading Inflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) and XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) saw significant Southbound Trading net inflows of HKD800.5 million and HKD643.1 million, respectively, while ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK), BABA-W (09988.HK), and SMIC (00981.HK) experienced notable outflows.
Short Selling Activity: TENCENT and XIAOMI had short selling amounts of $789.05 million and $1.09 billion, with respective ratios of 5.535% and 16.245%, indicating active trading interest in these stocks.
HSBC Research Increases Price Targets for Zijin Group, Anticipates Sustained High Copper and Gold Prices
Target Price Increases: HSBC Global Investment Research raised the target prices for ZIJIN MINING, ZIJIN GOLD INTL, and Zijin Mining, maintaining a Buy rating due to anticipated increases in gold and copper prices.
Copper Market Outlook: The broker expects copper prices to remain high through 2026, supported by a tight market, while geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening USD will bolster gold prices.
ZIJIN GOLD INTL Acquisition: ZIJIN GOLD INTL's acquisition of Allied Gold, which includes three gold mines, is projected to increase its gold production CAGR to approximately 37% from 2025 to 2027, expanding its portfolio to 13 gold mines.
ZIJIN MINING Production Growth: The expansion of ZIJIN MINING's Julong Copper Mine is on track, with expected copper production rising from about 186,000 tons in 2025 to approximately 204,000 tons in 2026.
UBS Maintains Buy Rating for ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK) as 2025 Profits Exceed Expectations
Company Performance: Zijin Gold International reported a 233% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, reaching $1.6 billion, exceeding market expectations by $300 million according to UBS.
Dividends and Payout Ratio: The company announced a full-year dividend per share of $1.5, with a payout ratio of below 32%, comparable to Zijin Mining's 31%.
Market Sentiment: Recent gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict and oil price fluctuations, which may negatively affect gold miners' market sentiment.
Analyst Outlook: UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold prices, suggesting that current share price weaknesses present a buying opportunity for gold miners, with a target price set at $297.
HSI Soars 385 Points at Midday, Driven by Chinese Insurers and Financials; POP MART Rises Over 5%
Market Performance: The HSI rose 1.5% to 26,945, with significant gains in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total half-day turnover reached $136.256 billion.
Insurance Sector Gains: Chinese insurers like CHINA LIFE and PING AN saw increases of 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively, following PING AN's stake increase in CHINA LIFE.
Financial Stocks Surge: Major financial stocks including HSBC and HKEX experienced gains between 2.6% and 3.0%, contributing to a positive market sentiment.
Consumer Stocks Rally: Companies like POP MART and CTG DUTY-FREE reported substantial increases, with POP MART noted for its potential upside based on investor positions and upcoming product designs.
ZIJIN MINING Drops 7% as Spot Gold Dips Below USD 4.5K
Gold and Silver Prices Decline: Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping to USD4,532.29, down 7.24%, while silver also decreased to USD75.97, down 11.1%, as institutional investors expressed caution about the short-term trends in precious metals.
Futures Market Movement: Gold futures for February delivery decreased by 3.6% to USD4,545, and silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.9% to USD77.03, indicating a continued downward trend in the market.
Impact on Hong Kong-listed Gold Miners: Hong Kong-listed gold mining companies experienced substantial losses, with ZIJIN MINING down 7.02%, ZIJIN GOLD INTL down 8.33%, and SD GOLD down 12.29%, reflecting the broader decline in precious metal prices.
Short Selling Activity: There was notable short selling activity among gold mining stocks, with significant amounts reported for various companies, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors in the sector.
HSI Drops 498 Points at Noon; Commodity Shares Tumble; CSPC Pharma Falls Over 12%
Market Reaction to Fed Chair Nominee: The DXY rose following President Trump's announcement of the Fed Chair nominee, while the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, with the HSI dropping 498 points or 1.8% by the morning session's close.
Gold and Mining Stocks Performance: Gold prices fell over 3%, leading to substantial losses in mining stocks such as SD GOLD and ZIJIN GOLD, which plunged 12.9% and 10% respectively, alongside other mining companies experiencing similar declines.
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments: CSPC PHARMA's stock plummeted 12.5% despite a partnership with AstraZeneca for drug development, which included an upfront payment exceeding HKD9.3 billion.
Corporate News and Market Rumors: The Panama Supreme Court ruled contracts for two local ports unconstitutional, negatively impacting CKH HOLDINGS, while rumors of a potential ownership change at NEW WORLD DEV led to a 3.7% increase in its stock price.
Net Inflow of HKD800.5M in Southbound Trading for TENCENT
Southbound Trading Inflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) and XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) saw significant Southbound Trading net inflows of HKD800.5 million and HKD643.1 million, respectively, while ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK), BABA-W (09988.HK), and SMIC (00981.HK) experienced notable outflows.
Short Selling Activity: TENCENT and XIAOMI had short selling amounts of $789.05 million and $1.09 billion, with respective ratios of 5.535% and 16.245%, indicating active trading interest in these stocks.
HSBC Research Increases Price Targets for Zijin Group, Anticipates Sustained High Copper and Gold Prices
Target Price Increases: HSBC Global Investment Research raised the target prices for ZIJIN MINING, ZIJIN GOLD INTL, and Zijin Mining, maintaining a Buy rating due to anticipated increases in gold and copper prices.
Copper Market Outlook: The broker expects copper prices to remain high through 2026, supported by a tight market, while geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening USD will bolster gold prices.
ZIJIN GOLD INTL Acquisition: ZIJIN GOLD INTL's acquisition of Allied Gold, which includes three gold mines, is projected to increase its gold production CAGR to approximately 37% from 2025 to 2027, expanding its portfolio to 13 gold mines.
ZIJIN MINING Production Growth: The expansion of ZIJIN MINING's Julong Copper Mine is on track, with expected copper production rising from about 186,000 tons in 2025 to approximately 204,000 tons in 2026.
