ONEQ's Holdings May Offer 13% Profit Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 23 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CRTO?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Performance Analysis: The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) has an implied analyst target price of $101.09, indicating a potential upside of 13.05% from its current trading price of $89.42.
Notable Holdings with Upside: Key underlying holdings of ONEQ, such as TERRA INNOVATUM GLOBAL NV (NKLR), Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL), and Criteo S.A. (CRTO), show significant upside potential, with target prices suggesting increases of 135.22%, 90.79%, and 77.99% respectively.
Analyst Target Justification: The article raises questions about whether analysts' target prices are justified or overly optimistic, suggesting that high targets could lead to downgrades if they are based on outdated information.
Investor Research Recommendation: Investors are encouraged to conduct further research to assess the validity of analyst targets in light of recent company and industry developments.
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Analyst Views on CRTO
Wall Street analysts forecast CRTO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRTO is 35.00 USD with a low forecast of 25.00 USD and a high forecast of 42.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.510
Low
25.00
Averages
35.00
High
42.00
Current: 18.510
Low
25.00
Averages
35.00
High
42.00
About CRTO
Criteo SA is a France-based company specializing in digital performance marketing. Its solution consists of the Criteo Engine, the Company's data assets, access to inventory, and its advertiser and publisher platforms. The Criteo Engine consists of various machine learning algorithms, such as prediction, recommendation, bidding and creative algorithms and the global hardware and software infrastructure. The Criteo Engine delivers advertisements through multiple marketing channels and formats, including display advertising banners, native advertising banners and marketing messages delivered to opt-in e-mail addresses. Advertisements are delivered on all devices and screens, including Web browsers on desktops and laptops, mobile Web browsers on smart phones and tablets, as well as mobile applications. It operates in approximately 90 countries through a network of over 30 international offices located in Europe, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Criteo Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Financial Performance: Criteo reported $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025, with Contribution ex-TAC growing 3.5% to $1.2 billion, demonstrating robust execution underpinned by strong cash flow and a 35% adjusted EBITDA margin, despite challenges from Retail Media client scope reductions.
- Clear Strategic Priorities: CEO Komasinski emphasized the company's focus on agentic commerce, AI assistants, and Retail Media leadership, with the newly launched Agentic Commerce Recommendation Service showing a 60% uplift in product prioritization, which is expected to enhance customer conversion rates and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Cautious Future Outlook: CFO Glickman anticipates flat to 2% growth in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026, primarily impacted by a $75 million headwind from Retail Media client scope reductions, although excluding this, growth is expected to accelerate to high teens to 20%.
- Cash Flow and Buyback Plan: Criteo generated $134 million in free cash flow in Q4 2025, and the Board has authorized a stock buyback of up to $200 million, reflecting the company's balanced strategy between ongoing investments and shareholder returns.
See More
Criteo's Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Drop 8.9%
- Disappointing Earnings: Criteo reported fourth-quarter revenue of $541 million, a 2% decline year-over-year that fell short of Wall Street expectations, resulting in an 8.9% drop in premarket trading.
- Declining Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, down from $1.75 a year earlier and below analysts' estimates of $1.41, indicating a significant decline in the company's profitability.
- Retail Media Pressure: Retail media revenue decreased by 17% year-over-year due to scope changes with two clients, although performance media revenue saw a slight increase of 1%, highlighting ongoing challenges.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Criteo expects contribution ex-TAC growth for 2026 to range from flat to 2%, with first-quarter contributions projected to decline by 9% to 11% year-over-year, reflecting a cautious approach to future performance.
See More
Criteo Reports 2025 Financial Results and Share Buyback Plan
- Financial Overview: Criteo reported $1.945 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, yet a slight decline of 0.5% at constant currency, indicating intensified market competition that may impact future growth expectations.
- Net Income Fluctuation: The net income for 2025 reached $149 million, a 30% increase from 2024; however, Q4 net income dropped to $46 million, down 36% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in cost control and market conditions.
- Cash Flow and Buyback Plan: Criteo returned $152 million to shareholders through share repurchases in 2025 while maintaining strong cash flow, demonstrating confidence in future growth, and plans to increase the buyback authorization to $200 million to mitigate potential shareholder dilution.
- Strategic Restructuring and Legal Changes: The Board approved the transfer of the company's legal domicile from France to Luxembourg and plans for a direct listing in 2026, aimed at optimizing corporate structure and enhancing market competitiveness.
See More
Criteo S.A. Issues Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance
- Earnings Highlights: Criteo S.A. reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.30, with revenue at $541 million, reflecting a 2.2% year-over-year decline, indicating pressure in the competitive landscape.
- Future Outlook: The fiscal year 2026 guidance suggests contribution ex-TAC growth is expected to be flat to +2%, reflecting a cautious stance on future growth, while adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 32% and 34%.
- Q1 Expectations: For Q1 2026, contribution is anticipated to be between $245 million and $250 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 11% to 9%, indicating short-term challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: Despite Criteo's earnings beat, the market's muted response highlights investor concerns regarding the risks faced by the company and its low valuation, potentially presenting opportunities for contrarian investors.
See More
Criteo S.A. to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Criteo S.A. is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 11 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.41, reflecting a 19.4% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $328.9 million, down 40.5% year-over-year, indicating significant challenges ahead.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Criteo has consistently beaten EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, showcasing the company's financial stability despite the current adverse market conditions.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite Criteo's earnings beats, the market has reacted tepidly, reflecting investor caution regarding the company's future growth prospects, which may impact its stock performance.
- Investor Focus: Analysts note that despite risks from competitors like Amazon, Criteo's attractive multiples have drawn interest from some investors, potentially providing opportunities for a rebound in the future.
See More
Criteo (CRTO) to Announce Q4 and FY 2025 Results on February 11, 2026
- Earnings Announcement Date: Criteo S.A. will release its Q4 and FY 2025 financial results on February 11, 2026, providing investors with crucial financial data and business performance insights.
- Executive Conference Call: CEO Michael Komasinski and CFO Sarah Glickman will host a conference call at 8:00 AM ET to discuss the financial results, enhancing transparency and engaging with investors.
- Webcast Access: The conference call will be webcast live on Criteo's website, allowing investors to access real-time information and replay options, ensuring broad dissemination and accessibility of information.
- Business Platform Overview: Criteo, as a global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem, leverages AI-driven advertising technology to access over $1 trillion in annual commerce sales, showcasing its significant position and influence in the advertising industry.
See More
Criteo Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Financial Performance: Criteo reported $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025, with Contribution ex-TAC growing 3.5% to $1.2 billion, demonstrating robust execution underpinned by strong cash flow and a 35% adjusted EBITDA margin, despite challenges from Retail Media client scope reductions.
- Clear Strategic Priorities: CEO Komasinski emphasized the company's focus on agentic commerce, AI assistants, and Retail Media leadership, with the newly launched Agentic Commerce Recommendation Service showing a 60% uplift in product prioritization, which is expected to enhance customer conversion rates and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Cautious Future Outlook: CFO Glickman anticipates flat to 2% growth in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026, primarily impacted by a $75 million headwind from Retail Media client scope reductions, although excluding this, growth is expected to accelerate to high teens to 20%.
- Cash Flow and Buyback Plan: Criteo generated $134 million in free cash flow in Q4 2025, and the Board has authorized a stock buyback of up to $200 million, reflecting the company's balanced strategy between ongoing investments and shareholder returns.
See More
Criteo's Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Drop 8.9%
- Disappointing Earnings: Criteo reported fourth-quarter revenue of $541 million, a 2% decline year-over-year that fell short of Wall Street expectations, resulting in an 8.9% drop in premarket trading.
- Declining Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, down from $1.75 a year earlier and below analysts' estimates of $1.41, indicating a significant decline in the company's profitability.
- Retail Media Pressure: Retail media revenue decreased by 17% year-over-year due to scope changes with two clients, although performance media revenue saw a slight increase of 1%, highlighting ongoing challenges.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Criteo expects contribution ex-TAC growth for 2026 to range from flat to 2%, with first-quarter contributions projected to decline by 9% to 11% year-over-year, reflecting a cautious approach to future performance.
See More
Criteo Reports 2025 Financial Results and Share Buyback Plan
- Financial Overview: Criteo reported $1.945 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, yet a slight decline of 0.5% at constant currency, indicating intensified market competition that may impact future growth expectations.
- Net Income Fluctuation: The net income for 2025 reached $149 million, a 30% increase from 2024; however, Q4 net income dropped to $46 million, down 36% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in cost control and market conditions.
- Cash Flow and Buyback Plan: Criteo returned $152 million to shareholders through share repurchases in 2025 while maintaining strong cash flow, demonstrating confidence in future growth, and plans to increase the buyback authorization to $200 million to mitigate potential shareholder dilution.
- Strategic Restructuring and Legal Changes: The Board approved the transfer of the company's legal domicile from France to Luxembourg and plans for a direct listing in 2026, aimed at optimizing corporate structure and enhancing market competitiveness.
See More
Criteo S.A. Issues Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance
- Earnings Highlights: Criteo S.A. reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.30, with revenue at $541 million, reflecting a 2.2% year-over-year decline, indicating pressure in the competitive landscape.
- Future Outlook: The fiscal year 2026 guidance suggests contribution ex-TAC growth is expected to be flat to +2%, reflecting a cautious stance on future growth, while adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 32% and 34%.
- Q1 Expectations: For Q1 2026, contribution is anticipated to be between $245 million and $250 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 11% to 9%, indicating short-term challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: Despite Criteo's earnings beat, the market's muted response highlights investor concerns regarding the risks faced by the company and its low valuation, potentially presenting opportunities for contrarian investors.
See More
Criteo S.A. to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 11
- Earnings Announcement Date: Criteo S.A. is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 11 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.41, reflecting a 19.4% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $328.9 million, down 40.5% year-over-year, indicating significant challenges ahead.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Criteo has consistently beaten EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, showcasing the company's financial stability despite the current adverse market conditions.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite Criteo's earnings beats, the market has reacted tepidly, reflecting investor caution regarding the company's future growth prospects, which may impact its stock performance.
- Investor Focus: Analysts note that despite risks from competitors like Amazon, Criteo's attractive multiples have drawn interest from some investors, potentially providing opportunities for a rebound in the future.
See More
Criteo (CRTO) to Announce Q4 and FY 2025 Results on February 11, 2026
- Earnings Announcement Date: Criteo S.A. will release its Q4 and FY 2025 financial results on February 11, 2026, providing investors with crucial financial data and business performance insights.
- Executive Conference Call: CEO Michael Komasinski and CFO Sarah Glickman will host a conference call at 8:00 AM ET to discuss the financial results, enhancing transparency and engaging with investors.
- Webcast Access: The conference call will be webcast live on Criteo's website, allowing investors to access real-time information and replay options, ensuring broad dissemination and accessibility of information.
- Business Platform Overview: Criteo, as a global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem, leverages AI-driven advertising technology to access over $1 trillion in annual commerce sales, showcasing its significant position and influence in the advertising industry.
See More
