Honeywell's Underperformance Affects Dow Jones Index
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy HON?
Source: Fool
- Dow Component Changes: Honeywell replaced Raytheon Technologies in the Dow on August 31, 2020, but has only delivered a 56.2% total return since then, significantly lagging behind RTX's 231.1%, indicating its failure to meet market expectations.
- Unfulfilled Innovation Potential: Although Honeywell was viewed as a diversified and innovative industrial giant in 2020, its persistent underperformance in earnings and free cash flow growth, partly due to supply chain and inflationary pressures, has hindered its ability to capitalize on its strengths.
- Spinoff Plans Generate Interest: In November 2024, activist investor Elliott Investment Management amassed a position exceeding $5 billion, prompting Honeywell to consider a breakup; the successful spinoff of Solstice Advanced Materials in October 2025, which saw a 79.4% gain, highlights the potential for growth through such restructuring.
- Future Outlook and Market Reaction: Honeywell plans to spin off its aerospace division on June 29, 2024, with the remaining business focusing on industrial and building automation, and the market anticipates that this structural adjustment could enhance its standing in the Dow, reflecting a broader preference for focused companies.
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Analyst Views on HON
Wall Street analysts forecast HON stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 217.720
Low
195.00
Averages
235.07
High
262.00
Current: 217.720
Low
195.00
Averages
235.07
High
262.00
About HON
Honeywell International Inc. is an integrated operating company serving a range of industries and geographies around the world, with a portfolio that is underpinned by its Honeywell Accelerator operating system and Honeywell Forge platform. The Company provides actionable solutions for aerospace, building automation, industrial automation, process automation, and process technology. The Company supplies products, software, and services for aircrafts that it sells to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and other customers in a variety of end markets. The Company’s portfolio of solutions and services is used in buildings worldwide for fire prevention, controls, access and security. Its offerings serve as the fundamental building blocks of industrial automation. Its sensor technologies and value-added smart edge devices offer connectivity across a variety of sensing and measurement applications. The Company offers a comprehensive portfolio of end-to-end process automation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Quantinuum's IPO Marks a Pivotal Moment in Quantum Computing
- Company Background: Quantinuum was formed in 2021 through the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum Computing, with major backing from Honeywell and blue-chip investors like Nvidia and JPMorgan, highlighting its strong support in the quantum computing sector.
- Technological Edge: Utilizing trapped-ion quantum computers, Quantinuum employs lasers to suspend individual atoms, yielding qubits with exceptionally high fidelity and long coherence times, and this full-stack approach enhances error correction compared to Rigetti Computing's superconducting qubits.
- Financial Performance: In 2025, Quantinuum generated $30.9 million in revenue, a 35% year-over-year increase, yet net losses widened to $192.6 million, reflecting substantial investments in R&D and marketing, indicating that commercialized quantum AI solutions are still in development.
- IPO Outlook: Market speculation suggests Quantinuum's IPO could value the company near $20 billion, double its $10 billion valuation from a September 2025 funding round, and despite its poor financial profile, the IPO could serve as a catalyst for the entire quantum ecosystem.
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Honeywell's Underperformance Affects Dow Jones Index
- Dow Component Changes: Honeywell replaced Raytheon Technologies in the Dow on August 31, 2020, but has only delivered a 56.2% total return since then, significantly lagging behind RTX's 231.1%, indicating its failure to meet market expectations.
- Unfulfilled Innovation Potential: Although Honeywell was viewed as a diversified and innovative industrial giant in 2020, its persistent underperformance in earnings and free cash flow growth, partly due to supply chain and inflationary pressures, has hindered its ability to capitalize on its strengths.
- Spinoff Plans Generate Interest: In November 2024, activist investor Elliott Investment Management amassed a position exceeding $5 billion, prompting Honeywell to consider a breakup; the successful spinoff of Solstice Advanced Materials in October 2025, which saw a 79.4% gain, highlights the potential for growth through such restructuring.
- Future Outlook and Market Reaction: Honeywell plans to spin off its aerospace division on June 29, 2024, with the remaining business focusing on industrial and building automation, and the market anticipates that this structural adjustment could enhance its standing in the Dow, reflecting a broader preference for focused companies.
See More
U.S. Defense Budget Soars, Benefiting Defense Stocks
- Defense Budget Surge: The U.S. defense budget surpassed $1 trillion in 2023, with projections of reaching $1.5 trillion in 2024, reflecting a strong focus on modernization and military rebuilding, which is expected to drive up related defense stocks.
- RTX's Market Position: As one of the world's largest aerospace and defense companies, RTX is well-positioned to benefit from the $24.4 billion 'Golden Dome' initiative by providing layered defense solutions, thereby solidifying its market position amid rising defense budgets.
- Honeywell's Spin-off Strategy: Honeywell is undergoing a massive transformation by spinning off its aerospace segment into an independent company, which is expected to unlock value for investors, especially with a $500 million agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to boost production of critical components.
- Rocket Lab's Contract Wins: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million prime contract to design and manufacture 18 missile-defense satellites, showcasing its strong growth potential in the defense sector, while reporting $200 million in revenue for Q1, exceeding market expectations and enhancing its market appeal.
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Acceleration of eVTOL Aircraft Commercialization in 2026
- FAA Certification Progress: Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are accelerating the commercialization of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with Archer completing the third stage of the FAA's four-stage certification process, becoming the first U.S. eVTOL company to do so, while Joby has successfully flown its first FAA-conforming aircraft, marking its entry into the final stage, which lays the groundwork for future commercial operations.
- Operational Plans: Both companies expect to begin U.S. operations in 2026 under a White House program, which will bring them closer to putting paying passengers in the air; although both stocks are risky, this progress indicates growing market confidence in the eVTOL concept.
- Business Model Differences: Joby Aviation adopts a vertically integrated business model, planning to manufacture its own parts and operate its aircraft through an air-taxi service similar to Uber, which, while requiring higher upfront R&D investment, could lead to higher profit margins in the long run.
- Supply Chain Control: In contrast, Archer Aviation outsources many components to reputable suppliers like Molicel and Honeywell, a strategy that may accelerate short-term progress but reduces its control over the supply chain, potentially impacting its long-term competitiveness.
See More
Key Market Highlights for Today
- Cerebras IPO: Cerebras Systems successfully raised $5.5 billion in its IPO today, focusing on ultra-fast AI chip processing, with OpenAI committing to purchase its computing capacity, indicating strong market demand for efficient AI computing.
- Cisco's Strong Quarter: Cisco reported a blowout quarter with robust data center performance, sending shares up nearly 15% in premarket trading, reflecting massive demand for networking equipment and underscoring the ongoing growth in AI spending, enhancing the investment case for data center stocks.
- Dell Price Target Increase: Citi raised Dell's price target from $235 to $290 ahead of its earnings report, anticipating continued strong performance in the server market; despite rising memory costs, Dell's scale and pricing agility are expected to provide competitive advantages.
- Broadcom Price Target Boost: Wells Fargo increased Broadcom's price target from $430 to $545, significantly raising AI chip revenue forecasts, highlighting the underappreciated potential in its networking segment, which could drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Honeywell Gains from Global Tensions and AI Adoption Amid Business Split
- Business Split Plan: Honeywell plans to separate its automation and aerospace units in early 2025, a decision not driven by geopolitical factors, yet the escalation of global conflicts is expected to boost demand for defense-related products.
- Rising Defense Demand: CEO Vimal Kapur noted that the outbreak of the Iran conflict is increasing demand for defense products, contrasting with market expectations during the Ukraine war, highlighting potential growth opportunities for Honeywell in the defense sector.
- AI Driving Automation: Kapur mentioned that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence is reshaping expectations for the automation business, as companies increasingly rely on AI tools to extract efficiency gains from operational data, thereby creating value for customers.
- Clear Acquisition Targets: Honeywell's automation arm plans to actively seek acquisitions in the $2 billion to $3 billion range to support earnings growth while avoiding excessive risk, demonstrating the company's growth strategy post-restructuring.
See More
Quantinuum's IPO Marks a Pivotal Moment in Quantum Computing
- Company Background: Quantinuum was formed in 2021 through the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum Computing, with major backing from Honeywell and blue-chip investors like Nvidia and JPMorgan, highlighting its strong support in the quantum computing sector.
- Technological Edge: Utilizing trapped-ion quantum computers, Quantinuum employs lasers to suspend individual atoms, yielding qubits with exceptionally high fidelity and long coherence times, and this full-stack approach enhances error correction compared to Rigetti Computing's superconducting qubits.
- Financial Performance: In 2025, Quantinuum generated $30.9 million in revenue, a 35% year-over-year increase, yet net losses widened to $192.6 million, reflecting substantial investments in R&D and marketing, indicating that commercialized quantum AI solutions are still in development.
- IPO Outlook: Market speculation suggests Quantinuum's IPO could value the company near $20 billion, double its $10 billion valuation from a September 2025 funding round, and despite its poor financial profile, the IPO could serve as a catalyst for the entire quantum ecosystem.
See More
Honeywell's Underperformance Affects Dow Jones Index
- Dow Component Changes: Honeywell replaced Raytheon Technologies in the Dow on August 31, 2020, but has only delivered a 56.2% total return since then, significantly lagging behind RTX's 231.1%, indicating its failure to meet market expectations.
- Unfulfilled Innovation Potential: Although Honeywell was viewed as a diversified and innovative industrial giant in 2020, its persistent underperformance in earnings and free cash flow growth, partly due to supply chain and inflationary pressures, has hindered its ability to capitalize on its strengths.
- Spinoff Plans Generate Interest: In November 2024, activist investor Elliott Investment Management amassed a position exceeding $5 billion, prompting Honeywell to consider a breakup; the successful spinoff of Solstice Advanced Materials in October 2025, which saw a 79.4% gain, highlights the potential for growth through such restructuring.
- Future Outlook and Market Reaction: Honeywell plans to spin off its aerospace division on June 29, 2024, with the remaining business focusing on industrial and building automation, and the market anticipates that this structural adjustment could enhance its standing in the Dow, reflecting a broader preference for focused companies.
See More
U.S. Defense Budget Soars, Benefiting Defense Stocks
- Defense Budget Surge: The U.S. defense budget surpassed $1 trillion in 2023, with projections of reaching $1.5 trillion in 2024, reflecting a strong focus on modernization and military rebuilding, which is expected to drive up related defense stocks.
- RTX's Market Position: As one of the world's largest aerospace and defense companies, RTX is well-positioned to benefit from the $24.4 billion 'Golden Dome' initiative by providing layered defense solutions, thereby solidifying its market position amid rising defense budgets.
- Honeywell's Spin-off Strategy: Honeywell is undergoing a massive transformation by spinning off its aerospace segment into an independent company, which is expected to unlock value for investors, especially with a $500 million agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to boost production of critical components.
- Rocket Lab's Contract Wins: Rocket Lab secured an $816 million prime contract to design and manufacture 18 missile-defense satellites, showcasing its strong growth potential in the defense sector, while reporting $200 million in revenue for Q1, exceeding market expectations and enhancing its market appeal.
See More
Acceleration of eVTOL Aircraft Commercialization in 2026
- FAA Certification Progress: Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are accelerating the commercialization of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with Archer completing the third stage of the FAA's four-stage certification process, becoming the first U.S. eVTOL company to do so, while Joby has successfully flown its first FAA-conforming aircraft, marking its entry into the final stage, which lays the groundwork for future commercial operations.
- Operational Plans: Both companies expect to begin U.S. operations in 2026 under a White House program, which will bring them closer to putting paying passengers in the air; although both stocks are risky, this progress indicates growing market confidence in the eVTOL concept.
- Business Model Differences: Joby Aviation adopts a vertically integrated business model, planning to manufacture its own parts and operate its aircraft through an air-taxi service similar to Uber, which, while requiring higher upfront R&D investment, could lead to higher profit margins in the long run.
- Supply Chain Control: In contrast, Archer Aviation outsources many components to reputable suppliers like Molicel and Honeywell, a strategy that may accelerate short-term progress but reduces its control over the supply chain, potentially impacting its long-term competitiveness.
See More
Key Market Highlights for Today
- Cerebras IPO: Cerebras Systems successfully raised $5.5 billion in its IPO today, focusing on ultra-fast AI chip processing, with OpenAI committing to purchase its computing capacity, indicating strong market demand for efficient AI computing.
- Cisco's Strong Quarter: Cisco reported a blowout quarter with robust data center performance, sending shares up nearly 15% in premarket trading, reflecting massive demand for networking equipment and underscoring the ongoing growth in AI spending, enhancing the investment case for data center stocks.
- Dell Price Target Increase: Citi raised Dell's price target from $235 to $290 ahead of its earnings report, anticipating continued strong performance in the server market; despite rising memory costs, Dell's scale and pricing agility are expected to provide competitive advantages.
- Broadcom Price Target Boost: Wells Fargo increased Broadcom's price target from $430 to $545, significantly raising AI chip revenue forecasts, highlighting the underappreciated potential in its networking segment, which could drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Honeywell Gains from Global Tensions and AI Adoption Amid Business Split
- Business Split Plan: Honeywell plans to separate its automation and aerospace units in early 2025, a decision not driven by geopolitical factors, yet the escalation of global conflicts is expected to boost demand for defense-related products.
- Rising Defense Demand: CEO Vimal Kapur noted that the outbreak of the Iran conflict is increasing demand for defense products, contrasting with market expectations during the Ukraine war, highlighting potential growth opportunities for Honeywell in the defense sector.
- AI Driving Automation: Kapur mentioned that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence is reshaping expectations for the automation business, as companies increasingly rely on AI tools to extract efficiency gains from operational data, thereby creating value for customers.
- Clear Acquisition Targets: Honeywell's automation arm plans to actively seek acquisitions in the $2 billion to $3 billion range to support earnings growth while avoiding excessive risk, demonstrating the company's growth strategy post-restructuring.
See More
