Federal Reserve Policy Impacts Market Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 11 hours ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Fed Policy Impact: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated a potential interest rate hike to combat stubborn inflation, leading to a 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 on the first 'Fed day', reflecting investor anxiety over monetary policy.
- Market Recovery: Despite the sell-off, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% over a shortened four-session trading week, marking its 11th weekly gain in the past 12 weeks, demonstrating market resilience and a recovery in investor confidence.
- Chip Stocks Surge: Intel's stock jumped 10.6% on Thursday after Trump announced a partnership with Apple, bringing its weekly gain to 7.6%, while Nvidia and Broadcom also saw increases of 2.9% and 4.7%, highlighting the strength of the semiconductor sector.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: The signing of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a nearly 10% drop in crude oil prices this week, benefiting consumer banks like Capital One, which saw its stock rise, reflecting positive market sentiment towards lower oil prices.
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Analyst Views on ARM
Wall Street analysts forecast ARM stock price to fall
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 418.880
Low
120.00
Averages
160.58
High
201.00
Current: 418.880
Low
120.00
Averages
160.58
High
201.00
About ARM
Arm Holdings plc is a United Kingdom-based company. The Company is engaged in the design of central processing units (CPUs) and compute platforms for semiconductor chips. It develops and licenses CPU products and related technology. Its cloud and data center solutions include Arm AGI CPU and Arm Neoverse Compute Subsystems. The Arm Agentic Generalized Infrastructure (AGI) CPU is a production-ready system on a chip (SoC) for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, delivering compute at scale. The Arm Neoverse Compute Subsystems (CSS) are pre-validated, performance-optimized compute platforms designed to accelerate infrastructure silicon development. The Company's primary markets include smartphone applications, processors and other chips used in mobile phones, consumer electronics, networking equipment, cloud and data center servers, automotive applications, Internet of Things (loT) and other embedded computing devices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Federal Reserve Policy Impacts Market Performance
- Fed Policy Impact: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated a potential interest rate hike to combat stubborn inflation, leading to a 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 on the first 'Fed day', reflecting investor anxiety over monetary policy.
- Market Recovery: Despite the sell-off, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% over a shortened four-session trading week, marking its 11th weekly gain in the past 12 weeks, demonstrating market resilience and a recovery in investor confidence.
- Chip Stocks Surge: Intel's stock jumped 10.6% on Thursday after Trump announced a partnership with Apple, bringing its weekly gain to 7.6%, while Nvidia and Broadcom also saw increases of 2.9% and 4.7%, highlighting the strength of the semiconductor sector.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: The signing of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a nearly 10% drop in crude oil prices this week, benefiting consumer banks like Capital One, which saw its stock rise, reflecting positive market sentiment towards lower oil prices.
See More
US Stocks Rise on US-Iran Peace Deal Optimism
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.08%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.48% as optimism over the US-Iran peace deal eased inflation risks, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
- Chip Sector Surge: Intel's stock jumped over 10% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the iShares Semiconductor ETF to rise more than 7%, indicating strong momentum in the tech sector.
- Energy Stocks Weaken: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 3.5-month low, causing significant declines in energy stocks, with SLB, ConocoPhillips, and Halliburton dropping over 3%, highlighting concerns over energy price volatility.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market strength, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, surpassing expectations, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Nvidia Dominates AI Investment Landscape
- Shifting Capex Trends: By 2030, spending on AI chips and GPUs is expected to rise to 60% of total expenditures, indicating that Nvidia's central role in the AI market will be further solidified as data center infrastructure spending declines.
- Surging Market Demand: JPMorgan forecasts over $3 trillion in financing for AI chips and essential hardware components over the next five years, with silicon spending projected to increase from $340 billion in 2026 to $800 billion, reflecting strong demand for Nvidia's products.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue for the fiscal first quarter of 2024, an 85% increase year-over-year, highlighting the company's unique positioning at the center of the AI transition, with future GPU spending expected to drive further growth.
- Shipping Volume Expectations: JPMorgan anticipates Nvidia will ship 8.9 million GPUs this year, significantly outpacing Google's 4.5 million TPUs and Amazon's 1.9 million Inferenta and Trainium chips, showcasing its robust competitive edge in the AI hardware market.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Geopolitical Risks Ease
- Market Rebound: The signing of a preliminary deal by President Trump to end the US-Iran war has driven crude oil prices to a 3.5-month low, resulting in a broad market rally with the S&P 500 up 0.99% and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.16%, indicating a resurgence in risk appetite among investors.
- Chip Stocks Lead Gains: Intel shares surged 7% after Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, propelling the entire semiconductor sector higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising over 5%, reflecting strong investor confidence in tech stocks.
- Energy Stocks Under Pressure: Crude oil prices fell more than 3%, putting pressure on energy producers, with major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron experiencing declines, highlighting market concerns regarding the energy sector's outlook amid falling oil prices.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market resilience, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, exceeding expectations, further bolstering market optimism.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Chipmakers Lead Gains Amid Positive Economic News
- Market Rally: Following President Trump's signing of a preliminary US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the S&P 500 rose by 0.73%, the Dow Jones by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.62%, reflecting a risk-on sentiment in asset markets.
- Chipmaker Surge: Intel's stock jumped 8% after Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the semiconductor sector higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up over 4%.
- Supportive Economic Data: Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose by 10.7 to 10.3, exceeding expectations and bolstering market confidence.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: WTI crude oil prices dropped over 2% to a new 3.5-month low, potentially releasing over 100 oil-laden tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, which could increase market supply and influence future oil price trends.
See More
AMD vs. Arm: Competing in the AI CPU Market
- AMD's Market Performance: In Q1, AMD's revenue rose 38% year-over-year to $10.3 billion, with data center revenue jumping 57% to $5.8 billion, indicating strong demand for EPYC server CPUs, and the server CPU market is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, growing at over 35% annually.
- Advantages of EPYC Processors: AMD's 6th Gen EPYC processors are ramping up on TSMC's advanced 2-nanometer process, expected to meet the demand for high performance and low power consumption, particularly in AI data centers, positioning the company favorably in a rapidly growing market.
- Arm's Growth Potential: Arm's revenue for fiscal 2026 increased 23% year-over-year to $4.92 billion, primarily from licensing and royalty revenue, and as more cloud providers adopt Arm architecture, its market share is expected to further increase.
- Investment Choice Analysis: While both AMD and Arm offer investment opportunities in AI CPUs, AMD is more attractive due to its direct infrastructure exposure and lower execution risk, whereas Arm is suited for investors willing to pay a premium for a long-term platform story.
See More
Federal Reserve Policy Impacts Market Performance
- Fed Policy Impact: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated a potential interest rate hike to combat stubborn inflation, leading to a 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 on the first 'Fed day', reflecting investor anxiety over monetary policy.
- Market Recovery: Despite the sell-off, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% over a shortened four-session trading week, marking its 11th weekly gain in the past 12 weeks, demonstrating market resilience and a recovery in investor confidence.
- Chip Stocks Surge: Intel's stock jumped 10.6% on Thursday after Trump announced a partnership with Apple, bringing its weekly gain to 7.6%, while Nvidia and Broadcom also saw increases of 2.9% and 4.7%, highlighting the strength of the semiconductor sector.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: The signing of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a nearly 10% drop in crude oil prices this week, benefiting consumer banks like Capital One, which saw its stock rise, reflecting positive market sentiment towards lower oil prices.
See More
US Stocks Rise on US-Iran Peace Deal Optimism
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.08%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.48% as optimism over the US-Iran peace deal eased inflation risks, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
- Chip Sector Surge: Intel's stock jumped over 10% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the iShares Semiconductor ETF to rise more than 7%, indicating strong momentum in the tech sector.
- Energy Stocks Weaken: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 3.5-month low, causing significant declines in energy stocks, with SLB, ConocoPhillips, and Halliburton dropping over 3%, highlighting concerns over energy price volatility.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market strength, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, surpassing expectations, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Nvidia Dominates AI Investment Landscape
- Shifting Capex Trends: By 2030, spending on AI chips and GPUs is expected to rise to 60% of total expenditures, indicating that Nvidia's central role in the AI market will be further solidified as data center infrastructure spending declines.
- Surging Market Demand: JPMorgan forecasts over $3 trillion in financing for AI chips and essential hardware components over the next five years, with silicon spending projected to increase from $340 billion in 2026 to $800 billion, reflecting strong demand for Nvidia's products.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue for the fiscal first quarter of 2024, an 85% increase year-over-year, highlighting the company's unique positioning at the center of the AI transition, with future GPU spending expected to drive further growth.
- Shipping Volume Expectations: JPMorgan anticipates Nvidia will ship 8.9 million GPUs this year, significantly outpacing Google's 4.5 million TPUs and Amazon's 1.9 million Inferenta and Trainium chips, showcasing its robust competitive edge in the AI hardware market.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Geopolitical Risks Ease
- Market Rebound: The signing of a preliminary deal by President Trump to end the US-Iran war has driven crude oil prices to a 3.5-month low, resulting in a broad market rally with the S&P 500 up 0.99% and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.16%, indicating a resurgence in risk appetite among investors.
- Chip Stocks Lead Gains: Intel shares surged 7% after Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, propelling the entire semiconductor sector higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising over 5%, reflecting strong investor confidence in tech stocks.
- Energy Stocks Under Pressure: Crude oil prices fell more than 3%, putting pressure on energy producers, with major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron experiencing declines, highlighting market concerns regarding the energy sector's outlook amid falling oil prices.
- Supportive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, indicating labor market resilience, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, exceeding expectations, further bolstering market optimism.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Chipmakers Lead Gains Amid Positive Economic News
- Market Rally: Following President Trump's signing of a preliminary US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the S&P 500 rose by 0.73%, the Dow Jones by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.62%, reflecting a risk-on sentiment in asset markets.
- Chipmaker Surge: Intel's stock jumped 8% after Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically, leading the semiconductor sector higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up over 4%.
- Supportive Economic Data: Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000, close to the expected 225,000, while the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose by 10.7 to 10.3, exceeding expectations and bolstering market confidence.
- Oil Price Decline Impact: WTI crude oil prices dropped over 2% to a new 3.5-month low, potentially releasing over 100 oil-laden tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, which could increase market supply and influence future oil price trends.
See More
AMD vs. Arm: Competing in the AI CPU Market
- AMD's Market Performance: In Q1, AMD's revenue rose 38% year-over-year to $10.3 billion, with data center revenue jumping 57% to $5.8 billion, indicating strong demand for EPYC server CPUs, and the server CPU market is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, growing at over 35% annually.
- Advantages of EPYC Processors: AMD's 6th Gen EPYC processors are ramping up on TSMC's advanced 2-nanometer process, expected to meet the demand for high performance and low power consumption, particularly in AI data centers, positioning the company favorably in a rapidly growing market.
- Arm's Growth Potential: Arm's revenue for fiscal 2026 increased 23% year-over-year to $4.92 billion, primarily from licensing and royalty revenue, and as more cloud providers adopt Arm architecture, its market share is expected to further increase.
- Investment Choice Analysis: While both AMD and Arm offer investment opportunities in AI CPUs, AMD is more attractive due to its direct infrastructure exposure and lower execution risk, whereas Arm is suited for investors willing to pay a premium for a long-term platform story.
See More
