Exxon, Chevron Could Be Wall Street's Best-Kept Secrets This Quarter
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 30 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Oil Sector Earnings Surprise: As market attention is on Big Tech and the Federal Reserve, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to report strong earnings this week, with rising crude prices and positive EPS revisions indicating a potential shift in the oil sector's performance.
Analyst Optimism: Goldman Sachs analysts express bullish sentiments for both companies, highlighting Exxon's upstream strength and Chevron's growth projects and recent acquisition of Hess Corp., despite their stock performances lagging behind the broader market.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy CVX?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 188.770
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 188.770
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Buffett Bets Big on Global Energy Stock
- Increased Energy Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Chevron from 122 million shares to 130 million shares last quarter, raising its portfolio weight to 7.24%, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Performance Returns: Chevron achieved record oil and gas production last year, returning $26 billion to shareholders, an 18% increase year-over-year, despite its stock price rising only 1.5% in 2025, reflecting the pressure of low oil prices on profitability.
- Market Environment Analysis: Although Chevron's production and efficiency gains are significant, the company's profitability is impacted by oil prices remaining below $70 per barrel, with a break-even point around $50 per barrel, suggesting that even small price increases could substantially enhance profits.
- Geopolitical Impact: With rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to rise, and Buffett and his team are optimistic about Chevron's future performance, believing that in a recovering price environment, the stock could see significant upside.
See More
Impact of Soaring Oil Prices on the Market
- Market Pullback: The S&P 500 has recently dropped to a three-month low, giving back all its gains for 2026, primarily influenced by rising crude oil prices due to the war with Iran, indicating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Surging Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices have skyrocketed nearly 30% this year to around $75 per barrel, driven by Iran's attempts to halt oil flow from the Middle East, which could tighten global supplies and further elevate prices.
- U.S. Response Measures: The U.S. government is working to ensure oil continues to flow by providing insurance and considering Navy escorts; if successful, this could stabilize prices and prevent them from soaring above $100 per barrel, alleviating market pressure.
- Investment Recommendations: Given the uncertain oil market, investors should focus on safe oil stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron, both of which are expected to maintain growth even if oil prices cool off, demonstrating strong financial resilience.
See More
Cuba Faces Economic Crisis Amid External Pressures
- Economic Crisis Intensifies: Since January, the U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on Cuba, leading to the island facing its biggest economic test since the Soviet Union's collapse, with 32 Cuban soldiers killed in conflicts in Venezuela exacerbating domestic unrest.
- Increased External Threats: President Trump has labeled the Cuban government as an 'unusual and extraordinary threat' and pledged tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, further isolating the nation on the international stage and increasing pressure.
- Humanitarian Crisis Warning: The United Nations has warned of a potential humanitarian 'collapse' in Cuba due to dwindling oil supplies, prompting the government to implement measures to protect essential services and ration fuel for key sectors, highlighting the severity of the economic situation.
- Signs of Diplomatic Negotiation: Despite the tense situation, experts suggest that negotiations may be underway between the U.S. and Cuban governments regarding economic reforms, with President Miguel Díaz-Canel prioritizing economic improvement, indicating Cuba's efforts to adapt to changing geopolitical contexts.
See More
Berkshire Hathaway Resumes Share Buyback Program Under New CEO
- Share Buyback Resumption: Berkshire Hathaway has resumed its share buyback program for the first time since 2024, with CEO Abel committing to use his full salary for stock purchases annually, demonstrating confidence in the company's intrinsic value.
- Personal Investment Demonstration: Abel's personal purchase of $15 million in stock increases his stake in the company, addressing investor concerns about his alignment with Buffett's legacy and enhancing market confidence.
- Leadership Transition Communication: Abel emphasized the importance of communication with Buffett to reassure shareholders during the leadership transition, thereby strengthening trust in the new management.
- Financial Performance Pressure: Despite reporting a nearly 30% decline in operating earnings for Q4, primarily due to weakness in the insurance sector, the stock rose 1% following the announcement, indicating a positive market reaction to the buyback news.
See More
Iran War Sparks Oil Price Surge, Influencing Fed Policy
- Oil Price Surge Impacting Inflation: The Iran war has caused Brent crude prices to spike from approximately $72.50 to over $82, which is expected to add upward pressure on core inflation, potentially leading the Fed to pause its rate cuts and complicating economic recovery efforts.
- New Fed Chair Nomination: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with Warsh advocating for interest rates below 3.5%, indicating a strong preference for lower rates that could significantly influence future monetary policy directions.
- Divergence in Fed Opinions: Some Fed voting members express concerns about the economic impact of the Iran situation, particularly regarding rising oil prices, highlighting a clear divergence from Warsh's views and complicating the policy-making process.
- Warsh's Inflation Theory: Warsh posits that inflation primarily stems from excessive government spending and money printing, planning to lower long-term rates by reducing the Fed's financial assets, although modest oil price fluctuations may not significantly impact his theory, potentially posing challenges during his confirmation process.
See More
U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Amid Oil Supply Concerns
- Rising Treasury Yields: As of 2:47 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.12%, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield also rose over 4 basis points to 4.758%, indicating market caution regarding economic outlook.
- Oil Price Risk Management: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government will implement measures to support oil trade in the Gulf, as the ongoing war threatens supply and could elevate prices, which will have significant implications for related industries.
- Strait Security Assurance: President Trump declared that the U.S. would provide risk insurance and escorts for tankers in the Persian Gulf to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for about one-fifth of global crude shipments, highlighting the U.S.'s pivotal role in maintaining global energy supply chains.
- Economic Data Focus: Investors are closely monitoring weekly jobless claims data due Thursday and looking forward to February's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, as these figures will provide crucial insights into the health of the economy.
See More
Buffett Bets Big on Global Energy Stock
- Increased Energy Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Chevron from 122 million shares to 130 million shares last quarter, raising its portfolio weight to 7.24%, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Performance Returns: Chevron achieved record oil and gas production last year, returning $26 billion to shareholders, an 18% increase year-over-year, despite its stock price rising only 1.5% in 2025, reflecting the pressure of low oil prices on profitability.
- Market Environment Analysis: Although Chevron's production and efficiency gains are significant, the company's profitability is impacted by oil prices remaining below $70 per barrel, with a break-even point around $50 per barrel, suggesting that even small price increases could substantially enhance profits.
- Geopolitical Impact: With rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to rise, and Buffett and his team are optimistic about Chevron's future performance, believing that in a recovering price environment, the stock could see significant upside.
See More
Impact of Soaring Oil Prices on the Market
- Market Pullback: The S&P 500 has recently dropped to a three-month low, giving back all its gains for 2026, primarily influenced by rising crude oil prices due to the war with Iran, indicating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Surging Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices have skyrocketed nearly 30% this year to around $75 per barrel, driven by Iran's attempts to halt oil flow from the Middle East, which could tighten global supplies and further elevate prices.
- U.S. Response Measures: The U.S. government is working to ensure oil continues to flow by providing insurance and considering Navy escorts; if successful, this could stabilize prices and prevent them from soaring above $100 per barrel, alleviating market pressure.
- Investment Recommendations: Given the uncertain oil market, investors should focus on safe oil stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron, both of which are expected to maintain growth even if oil prices cool off, demonstrating strong financial resilience.
See More
Cuba Faces Economic Crisis Amid External Pressures
- Economic Crisis Intensifies: Since January, the U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on Cuba, leading to the island facing its biggest economic test since the Soviet Union's collapse, with 32 Cuban soldiers killed in conflicts in Venezuela exacerbating domestic unrest.
- Increased External Threats: President Trump has labeled the Cuban government as an 'unusual and extraordinary threat' and pledged tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, further isolating the nation on the international stage and increasing pressure.
- Humanitarian Crisis Warning: The United Nations has warned of a potential humanitarian 'collapse' in Cuba due to dwindling oil supplies, prompting the government to implement measures to protect essential services and ration fuel for key sectors, highlighting the severity of the economic situation.
- Signs of Diplomatic Negotiation: Despite the tense situation, experts suggest that negotiations may be underway between the U.S. and Cuban governments regarding economic reforms, with President Miguel Díaz-Canel prioritizing economic improvement, indicating Cuba's efforts to adapt to changing geopolitical contexts.
See More
Berkshire Hathaway Resumes Share Buyback Program Under New CEO
- Share Buyback Resumption: Berkshire Hathaway has resumed its share buyback program for the first time since 2024, with CEO Abel committing to use his full salary for stock purchases annually, demonstrating confidence in the company's intrinsic value.
- Personal Investment Demonstration: Abel's personal purchase of $15 million in stock increases his stake in the company, addressing investor concerns about his alignment with Buffett's legacy and enhancing market confidence.
- Leadership Transition Communication: Abel emphasized the importance of communication with Buffett to reassure shareholders during the leadership transition, thereby strengthening trust in the new management.
- Financial Performance Pressure: Despite reporting a nearly 30% decline in operating earnings for Q4, primarily due to weakness in the insurance sector, the stock rose 1% following the announcement, indicating a positive market reaction to the buyback news.
See More
Iran War Sparks Oil Price Surge, Influencing Fed Policy
- Oil Price Surge Impacting Inflation: The Iran war has caused Brent crude prices to spike from approximately $72.50 to over $82, which is expected to add upward pressure on core inflation, potentially leading the Fed to pause its rate cuts and complicating economic recovery efforts.
- New Fed Chair Nomination: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with Warsh advocating for interest rates below 3.5%, indicating a strong preference for lower rates that could significantly influence future monetary policy directions.
- Divergence in Fed Opinions: Some Fed voting members express concerns about the economic impact of the Iran situation, particularly regarding rising oil prices, highlighting a clear divergence from Warsh's views and complicating the policy-making process.
- Warsh's Inflation Theory: Warsh posits that inflation primarily stems from excessive government spending and money printing, planning to lower long-term rates by reducing the Fed's financial assets, although modest oil price fluctuations may not significantly impact his theory, potentially posing challenges during his confirmation process.
See More
U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Amid Oil Supply Concerns
- Rising Treasury Yields: As of 2:47 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.12%, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield also rose over 4 basis points to 4.758%, indicating market caution regarding economic outlook.
- Oil Price Risk Management: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government will implement measures to support oil trade in the Gulf, as the ongoing war threatens supply and could elevate prices, which will have significant implications for related industries.
- Strait Security Assurance: President Trump declared that the U.S. would provide risk insurance and escorts for tankers in the Persian Gulf to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for about one-fifth of global crude shipments, highlighting the U.S.'s pivotal role in maintaining global energy supply chains.
- Economic Data Focus: Investors are closely monitoring weekly jobless claims data due Thursday and looking forward to February's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, as these figures will provide crucial insights into the health of the economy.
See More
