SPY Overview

Reider's Nomination Odds: Traders have raised the odds of Rick Reider receiving the nomination for the next Federal Reserve chair to 35%, with a 33.1% chance perceived by market users.

Trump's Support for Reider: President Donald Trump praised Reider as "very impressive" during a recent interview, indicating strong support for his potential nomination.

Candidates for Fed Chair: The leading candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position include Rick Reider, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.

Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF is currently bearish, despite gains in U.S. equities, with expectations for an announcement regarding the Fed chair pick by next week.

Consumer Spending and Personal Income: In November, consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.3%, matching the rise in personal income, which saw an absolute increase of $80 billion. Disposable personal income also rose by $63.7 billion during the same period.

PCE Index and Inflation Rates: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, recorded an annualized increase of 2.8% in November, with core PCE (excluding food and energy) also at 2.8%, reflecting a 0.2% rise from the previous month.

Jobless Claims Trends: Jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 200,000, which was lower than market expectations. The four-week moving average for jobless claims fell to its lowest level since the start of the past year, indicating a decrease in weekly volatility.

Market Reactions: U.S. equities gained in early trading, with the S&P 500 ETF up by 0.58%. However, retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF was described as "bearish," reflecting cautious investor sentiment despite the gains in the market.

Trump's Greenland Interest: President Trump emphasized Greenland's strategic location for missile defense systems, stating that the U.S. is negotiating total access to the territory without a deadline.

Golden Dome Defense System: The proposed Golden Dome is a multi-layer missile defense system designed to detect and destroy various types of missiles, including ballistic and hypersonic threats.

Technological Advancements: Trump noted that advancements in technology now allow for the implementation of the Golden Dome, a concept previously suggested by former President Reagan but not feasible at the time.

Market Reactions: On the day of Trump's statements, U.S. equities saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising significantly, reflecting positive market sentiment amidst ongoing discussions about defense and international relations.

U.S.-EU Trade Agreement Status: U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, emphasized ongoing efforts to advance a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, despite recent statements from EU lawmakers indicating that the agreement has been put on hold.

Impact of Trump's Greenland Remarks: The EU's decision to pause trade negotiations follows President Trump's controversial remarks about Greenland, which have raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. trade commitments.

Concerns Over U.S. Trade Reliability: EU Parliament's International Trade Committee head, Bernd Lange, expressed worries that the U.S. is weakening its trade ties with the EU, potentially affecting future cooperation.

Future Trade Discussions: Despite the current halt, Lutnick highlighted the importance of U.S.-EU cooperation and the groundwork being laid for future agreements, particularly regarding economic ties and cross-border commerce.

Supreme Court's Likely Decision: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to deny Donald Trump's request for the immediate firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

Context of the Request: Trump's request is part of ongoing legal and political maneuvers related to his influence over federal appointments.