ETF Performance Analysis: The Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF (FNCL) has an implied analyst target price of $84.77, indicating a potential upside of 12.48% from its current trading price of $75.37.
Notable Holdings with Upside: Key underlying holdings such as Genworth Financial (GNW), Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB), and HCI Group Inc (HCI) show significant upside potential, with target prices exceeding their recent trading prices by 17.79%, 15.23%, and 14.09%, respectively.
Analyst Target Justification: The article raises questions about whether analysts' target prices are justified or overly optimistic, suggesting that high targets could lead to downgrades if they are based on outdated information.
Investor Research Importance: It emphasizes the need for further investor research to assess the validity of analyst targets in light of recent company and industry developments.
Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCI is 221.25 USD with a low forecast of 190.00 USD and a high forecast of 255.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCI is 221.25 USD with a low forecast of 190.00 USD and a high forecast of 255.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 170.100
Low
190.00
Averages
221.25
High
255.00
Current: 170.100
Low
190.00
Averages
221.25
High
255.00
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
As previously reported, Oppenheimer downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform. The firm notes that over the past two years, the stock is up 133% vs. the S&P's 51% and is up 59% year-to-date vs. S&P's 16%. While Oppenheimer's still holds the company and its management in high regard, it thinks certain key fundamentals have changed since its Outperform rating. Specifically, key legislative reforms initiated in 2023 have dramatically improved the Florida homeowners market, leading to a more competitive environment today, which limits organic growth opportunities over the next 18-24 months, while growth from Citizens depopulation has largely played out, all of which put more pressure on core margins.
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Price Target
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Michael Phillips downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform.
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Citizens JMP
Outperform
maintain
$225 -> $255
2025-11-10
Reason
Citizens JMP
Price Target
$225 -> $255
2025-11-10
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens JMP raised the firm's price target on HCI Group to $255 from $225 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. HCI Group posted a strong quarter, and as the business has scaled and profitability has improved, the volatility from storm activity has been substantially reduced, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the shares remain significantly undervalued.
Truist
Buy
maintain
$190 -> $234
2025-11-09
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$190 -> $234
2025-11-09
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on HCI Group (HCI) to $234 from $190 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's reported Q3 upside along with lower assumed losses, offset by slight dilution from the Exzeo (XZO) IPO, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About HCI
HCI Group, Inc. is a holding company engaged in property and casualty insurance, information technology services, insurance management, real estate and reinsurance. It operates through two operating units. The Company operates through five segments: insurance operations, Exzeo Group, reciprocal exchange operations, real estate operations, and corporate and other. Its insurance business includes property and casualty insurance division and reinsurance operations, excluding the insurance operations under reciprocal exchange operations. The Exzeo Group segment includes insurance solutions, information technology operations, and its management company’s activities. The reciprocal exchange segment represents the insurance operations of CORE and Tailrow, consolidated VIEs. The real estate operations segment includes companies engaged in operating commercial properties the Company owns for investment purposes or for use in its own operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
