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HCI Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Hci Group Inc (HCI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
160.420
1 Day change
-1.06%
52 Week Range
210.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/06
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HCI Group Inc is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The company shows strong financial performance, positive hedge fund activity, and a share buyback program, which are favorable for long-term growth. Despite neutral technical indicators and no immediate trading signals, the overall sentiment and fundamentals support a buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is positive at 2.281, indicating bullish momentum, but it is contracting. RSI is neutral at 59.259, suggesting no overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are converging, indicating a lack of a strong directional trend. Key support and resistance levels are Pivot: 167.057, R1: 178.523, and S1: 155.592. The stock is trading near the pivot level, showing a balanced risk-reward ratio.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
8
Buy
2

Positive Catalysts

  • Hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions in HCI, with a 2084.66% increase in buying activity over the last quarter.

  • The company has authorized an $80 million share buyback program, which is likely to enhance shareholder value.

  • Record earnings for 2025, with pre-tax income of $429 million and a 4664.83% YoY increase in net income.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Insiders are neutral, with no significant trading activity in the last month.

  • Stock trend analysis suggests a 70% chance of minor declines in the short term (-1.56% in the next day, -0.71% in the next week, -2.83% in the next month).

Financial Performance

In 2025/Q4, HCI Group reported exceptional financial growth. Revenue increased by 220.01% YoY to $521.79 million, net income surged by 4664.83% YoY to $105.68 million, and EPS grew by 2535.48% YoY to 8.17. These figures indicate robust operational performance and profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

There is no specific data on analyst ratings or price target changes provided. However, the company's strong financial performance and share buyback program are likely to be viewed positively by analysts.

Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 162.140
sliders
Low
190
Averages
221.25
High
255
Current: 162.140
sliders
Low
190
Averages
221.25
High
255
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
As previously reported, Oppenheimer downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform. The firm notes that over the past two years, the stock is up 133% vs. the S&P's 51% and is up 59% year-to-date vs. S&P's 16%. While Oppenheimer's still holds the company and its management in high regard, it thinks certain key fundamentals have changed since its Outperform rating. Specifically, key legislative reforms initiated in 2023 have dramatically improved the Florida homeowners market, leading to a more competitive environment today, which limits organic growth opportunities over the next 18-24 months, while growth from Citizens depopulation has largely played out, all of which put more pressure on core margins.
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Price Target
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Michael Phillips downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform.
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