European shares flat as defence gains combat tech losses By Reuters
European Market Overview: European shares remained flat, with the STOXX 600 index slightly up by 0.07%, as gains in defence stocks offset declines in technology stocks due to concerns over a U.S.-China technology war and new semiconductor restrictions.
Stock Movements: Defence stocks surged following discussions on increased German military spending, while technology stocks like STMicroelectronics and ASML fell; Unilever's shares dropped after CEO resignation news, whereas Thyssenkrupp rose ahead of a shareholder meeting related to its warship division spin-off.
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- Market Valuation Comparison: Despite recent market turbulence due to the Iran conflict, U.S. stock valuations remain historically high, with the average S&P 500 stock trading at nearly 23 times earnings, making it challenging for investors to find true bargains.
- Attractiveness of International Stocks: Currently, nearly all major international stock indices are trading at significant discounts compared to their U.S. counterparts; for instance, the MSCI EAFE index has a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 15 times and a dividend yield of 3.4%, compared to 1.5% for the S&P 500.
- ETF Investment Advantages: The Schwab International Equity ETF (SCHF), with an expense ratio as low as 0.03%, tracks mid- and large-cap stocks from developed countries, holding approximately 1,500 stocks with the largest accounting for only 1.64%, providing investors with excellent diversification opportunities.
- Risk and Reward: While investing in international stocks carries currency and geopolitical risks, the risk-reward dynamics of the Schwab International Equity ETF appear particularly attractive in the current high-valuation market, especially considering the relative undervaluation of international stocks.

- Valuation Comparison: International stocks are currently trading at significantly lower valuations compared to the U.S. market, with the MSCI EAFE index at just over 15 times earnings, while the S&P 500 averages nearly 23 times, making it challenging for investors to find attractive opportunities.
- ETF Investment Opportunity: The Schwab International Equity ETF (SCHF) offers a diversified investment in nearly 1,500 stocks at an extremely low expense ratio of 0.03%, with a dividend yield exceeding 3.2%, making it an appealing choice for income-focused investors.
- Market Performance Shift: After underperforming for nearly a decade, international stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by over 10 percentage points in 2025 and continue to show strong performance in 2026, indicating a potential recovery in the international market.
- Risk and Reward Dynamics: While investing in international stocks carries currency and geopolitical risks, the risk-reward dynamics of the Schwab International Equity ETF appear particularly attractive in the current expensive market, making it suitable for value-seeking investors.
Market Reaction: Semiconductor stocks experienced a significant decline early Thursday.
Underlying Factors: The drop is attributed to factors related to oil prices and interest rates, rather than Nvidia, AI, or hyperscaler spending.
- Oil Price Surge Impacts Market: WTI crude oil prices surged over 9% today following Iraq's suspension of oil terminal activities due to Iranian attacks on tankers, leading the S&P 500 to drop 1.22%, the Dow Jones by 1.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.46%, indicating market sensitivity to rising energy costs.
- Bank Stocks Under Pressure: Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC capped withdrawals from their private credit funds amid investor redemption demands exceeding fund limits, causing both Morgan Stanley and KKR to decline over 4%, reflecting growing concerns about credit quality in the market.
- Mixed Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 1,000 to 213,000, indicating labor market strength, while January housing starts unexpectedly rose 7.2% to 1.487 million, despite building permits dropping 5.4% to 1.376 million, suggesting potential slowdowns in future construction activity.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Despite market volatility, over 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 74% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, providing some support to the market, although overall sentiment remains pressured by rising oil prices.
- Surge in Oil Prices: Following an attack by Iran on two tankers, Iraq has suspended oil terminal activities, causing WTI crude prices to rise over 8% today, which could exacerbate global economic uncertainty and lead to increased inflation, impacting consumer spending.
- Global Supply Constraints: The IEA reported that the conflict with Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, with an expected reduction of 8 million barrels per day this month, indicating a significant impact on global markets and forcing producers to cut output.
- Mixed US Economic Data: While initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, indicating labor market strength, building permits unexpectedly dropped to a five-month low, suggesting a potential slowdown in future construction activity, which could affect economic growth expectations.
- Market Reactions: Airline and chip stocks are broadly down due to rising oil prices, with companies like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Lam Research seeing declines of over 3%, reflecting market concerns about the impact of high oil prices on corporate earnings.
- Crude Oil Reserves Release: Reports indicate a government plan for a record release of crude oil reserves, which is expected to alleviate market supply constraints and could lead to a short-term drop in oil prices, positively impacting related industries.
- Futures Market Reaction: Following this news, futures prices rose, with market participants becoming more optimistic about future oil price trends, potentially stimulating investor interest in energy-related assets.
- Oracle Earnings Surge: Oracle's stock jumped significantly after its earnings report, reflecting strong performance in cloud computing and software services, further solidifying its leadership position in the tech industry.
- Improved Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment has been boosted by the crude reserves release and Oracle's strong performance, enhancing investor confidence and potentially driving more capital into the stock market, aiding economic recovery.










