Should You Buy ASML Holding NV (ASML) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
1422.920
1 Day change
-2.18%
52 Week Range
1493.470
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k. ASML just delivered a major demand/backlog surprise (record bookings) and announced a large multi-year buyback, which are strong long-duration drivers for a high-quality semiconductor equipment leader. Near-term momentum is very strong (pre-market +4.80%), so the entry is not “cheap,” but the fundamental catalysts and analyst upgrades support owning it now for a long-term plan.
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Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish and extended. Key signals:
- Momentum: MACD histogram +13.995 and expanding → strong upward momentum.
- Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 → bullish trend alignment.
- RSI(6): 84.609 → overbought/overextended after the earnings-driven pop.
- Levels: Pivot 1359.81. Prior resistance R1 1445.37 has been cleared (option dataset price ~1454.59) and pre-market (~1524.96) is above R2 1498.22, implying a breakout. If price pulls back, the first key area to watch is the 1445–1360 zone (former resistance/pivot region).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is slightly mixed:
- Positioning (Open Interest P/C = 1.1): more puts than calls outstanding → mildly defensive/hedged sentiment.
- Flow (Volume P/C = 0.91): slightly more calls traded than puts → modestly bullish near-term trading interest.
- Volatility: IV(30d) 42.22 vs historical vol 32.13, IV percentile 77.2 → options are priced expensively, consistent with elevated post-earnings uncertainty and strong demand for protection/speculation.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
1) Q4 (QDEC 2025) demand shock: net bookings reported at ~€13.2B (news also cites ~$15.8B bookings figure), far above expectations, and backlog rising to ~€38.8B.
2) AI/advanced node capex cycle: management commentary and market reaction frame orders as AI-driven, supporting multi-year tool demand.
3) Capital return: announced up to €12B share buyback program through 2028 plus planned dividend (€7.50/share for 2025), supportive for long-term holders.
4) Analyst momentum: multiple firms raised price targets recently (Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, Berenberg, Barclays), reinforcing Street confidence into 2026–2027.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Overbought technical condition: RSI is very high and the stock is trading above the listed R2 resistance level, which can invite short-term mean reversion.
2) Earnings quality/expectations risk: calendar data shows QDEC 2025 EPS 7.35 vs 9.01 estimate (miss). Even with strong bookings, EPS misses can keep volatility elevated.
3) Policy/geopolitics risk (implicit for ASML): export controls/China tool restrictions remain an overhang, even though some analysts argue China DUV revenue may not correct much.
4) Political/congress activity: in the last 90 days, congress members recorded 4 sells and 0 buys (median sale ~$0.8M), a cautious signal at the margin.
Financial Performance
Latest provided financial snapshot (2025/Q3):
- Revenue: 8.78B, +7.12% YoY (steady growth)
- Net income: 2.48B, +8.89% YoY
- EPS: 6.41, +10.71% YoY
- Gross margin: 51.63%, +1.63% YoY (margin expansion)
Latest quarter/event (QDEC 2025 earnings reported 2026-01-28 pre-market): news highlights strong revenue (~€9.72B / $11.40B) and exceptionally strong bookings/backlog, but the calendar line indicates an EPS miss versus estimates (7.35 vs 9.01). Overall: fundamentals look demand-led and improving (orders/backlog), while earnings precision vs expectations remains a near-term swing factor.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: clearly improving price targets and generally bullish stance, with one notable bearish dissent.
- Upgrades/raised PTs: Bernstein upgraded to Outperform and materially lifted PT; Citi, Morgan Stanley, Berenberg, Barclays all raised targets (several clustered around €1,200–€1,400; Bernstein $1,642). These moves were driven by expectations for a DRAM/AI-driven equipment upcycle and stronger EUV/DUV demand.
- Negative outlier: Santander downgraded to Underperform (EUR 940), arguing a more positive scenario is already priced in.
Wall Street pros: dominant lithography moat, accelerating AI/advanced-node demand, record bookings/backlog visibility, and major buyback support.
Wall Street cons: valuation/expectations look stretched after the run, earnings vs estimates can be volatile, and geopolitical/export-control uncertainty remains a structural headline risk.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASML is 1344 USD with a low forecast of 1140 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASML is 1344 USD with a low forecast of 1140 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1454.590
Low
1140
Averages
1344
High
1500
Current: 1454.590
Low
1140
Averages
1344
High
1500
Citi
Buy
upgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on ASML to EUR 1,600 from EUR 1,400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the earnings report. The firm says the company's record order intake and "strong" 2026 outlook are the "early signs of a strong upcycle."
Barclays
Simon Coles
Equal Weight
maintain
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Barclays
Simon Coles
Price Target
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Simon Coles raised the firm's price target on ASML to EUR 1,200 from EUR 960 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
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