Dutch Bros vs. Starbucks: The Coffee Market Showdown
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Dutch Bros Expansion Plan: Dutch Bros aims to open 2,029 locations by 2029, a 78% increase from 1,136 in 2025, while expanding its total addressable market to 7,000 stores, indicating strong growth potential that is expected to significantly boost future revenues.
- Sustained Sales Growth: With 19 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth, Dutch Bros' CEO emphasizes the company's solid fundamentals, which will lay a strong foundation for future profitability and market competitiveness.
- Starbucks' Turnaround Efforts: After six consecutive quarters of same-store sales declines, Starbucks finally reversed this trend in Q4 2025, with management focusing on renovations and an upgraded rewards program to attract consumers, showcasing the brand's resilience and adaptability in the market.
- Investor Confidence: Despite Starbucks' high stock price with a forward P/E ratio of 40.8, Wall Street remains optimistic, projecting a 67% increase in earnings per share from fiscal 2025 to 2028, which supports its long-term investment value amidst competitive pressures.
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Analyst Views on BROS
Wall Street analysts forecast BROS stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 56.560
Low
70.00
Averages
78.80
High
85.00
Current: 56.560
Low
70.00
Averages
78.80
High
85.00
About BROS
Dutch Bros Inc. is an operator and franchiser of drive-thru shops, which is focused on serving hand-crafted beverages. The Company sells a range of customizable hot, iced and blended beverages. Coffee-based beverages include handcraft espresso shots for both hot and cold custom classic and signature coffee beverages. It also sells proprietary coffee-based Freeze blended beverages and cold brew. Its Private Reserve coffee is a 100% Arabica three-bean blend, roasted by the Company in Grants Pass, Oregon or Melissa, Texas facilities. The Company has two segments: Company-operated shops, and Franchising and other. The Company-operated shops segment includes retail coffee shop sales to end consumers. The Franchising and other segment includes bean and product sales to franchise partners and includes the initial franchise fees, royalties, and marketing fees. It has approximately 1,101 shops, of which over 779 are operated by the Company and 322 are franchised, across 26 states.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Starbucks Sees Growth in Afternoon Traffic as Part of Turnaround Strategy
- Afternoon Traffic Growth: Starbucks reports a significant increase in customer visits after 2 PM, particularly between 3 PM and 5 PM, which injects confidence into the company's turnaround strategy as it seeks to drive consistent traffic beyond the morning rush.
- Sales Surge: Data indicates that sales after 11 AM are projected to reach $11 billion in fiscal year 2025, showcasing the untapped potential of the afternoon sales window for the company.
- Innovation Driving Sales: The Refreshers beverage line has become Starbucks' second-best-selling category after espresso, contributing to afternoon sales growth and highlighting the company's success in beverage innovation.
- Intensifying Market Competition: With competitors like Dutch Bros and Dunkin' ramping up their afternoon marketing efforts, Starbucks' strategy for this time frame becomes crucial, as TD Cowen analysts expect new menu items and digital boards to further enhance traffic growth.
See More
Starbucks Sees Significant Growth in Afternoon Traffic
- Afternoon Traffic Surge: Internal data from February 15 to May 16 indicates that Starbucks is experiencing rapid growth in customer visits after 2 p.m., particularly between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., highlighting the company's potential to attract repeat customers.
- Strong Beverage Sales: The Refreshers platform has become Starbucks' second-best-selling beverage category after espresso, driving sales growth during the afternoon and expected to enhance customer loyalty further.
- Strategic Turnaround Success: CEO Brian Niccol emphasizes that the afternoon period represents a key growth opportunity in the company's turnaround strategy, as Starbucks aims for more consistent traffic beyond the morning rush, with recent quarterly earnings exceeding expectations and shares up 21% year-to-date.
- Intensifying Competition: With rivals like Dutch Bros and Dunkin' launching new beverages for the afternoon window, TD Cowen analysts suggest that Starbucks must leverage menu innovation and digital marketing to attract more customers and maintain top-of-mind awareness during coffee breaks.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Growth Stocks Amid Bull Market
- Amazon's Market Leadership: Amazon has become the largest company in the world by sales, with a 12% year-over-year increase in online store sales and a 14% rise in third-party sales in Q1 2023, showcasing its strong competitive edge and sustained growth potential.
- Dutch Bros' Innovative Expansion: Dutch Bros is leading in beverage innovation, achieving a 31% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, and plans to expand its store count from 1,177 to 2,029 by 2029, demonstrating its commitment to rapid growth.
- MercadoLibre's Strong Growth: MercadoLibre is excelling in e-commerce and fintech in Latin America, with a 46% year-over-year sales increase in Q1, while active users and total payments rose by 29% and 55%, respectively, highlighting its first-mover advantage in digital transformation.
- AI-Driven AWS Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 28% year-over-year sales increase in Q1, driven by the rapid growth of its AI business, reflecting the company's agility in responding to technological innovation and market demand shifts.
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Dutch Bros: Significant Future Growth Potential
- Significant Revenue Growth: Dutch Bros has demonstrated impressive revenue growth since its IPO, with year-over-year increases of 28% in Q2 25, 25% in Q3 25, 29% in Q4 25, and 31% in Q1 26, showcasing strong performance driven by new store openings and comparable sales growth despite previous inflationary pressures.
- Ambitious Expansion Plans: Since going public in 2021, Dutch Bros has rapidly expanded from approximately 500 stores to 1,000, with plans to double again by 2029 to reach 2,029 stores, and aims to enter more states, ultimately targeting 7,000 stores, indicating robust market penetration potential.
- Improving Profitability: In the first quarter, Dutch Bros reported a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA and net income of $23.7 million, up from $22.5 million last year, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability that underpin its long-term success.
- Attractive Valuation: While Dutch Bros stock is not objectively cheap, trading at 83 times trailing-12-month earnings, it is near historical lows, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in its growth potential, making it an appealing opportunity for growth-focused investors.
See More
Investment Opportunities: MercadoLibre, Dutch Bros, and Walmart
- MercadoLibre Growth Potential: MercadoLibre continues to thrive in e-commerce and fintech across 18 Latin American countries, with a 38% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume in Q1, indicating significant opportunities in underpenetrated markets; despite a 38% drop in stock price over the past year, management remains confident in future investments.
- Dutch Bros Expansion Plans: Dutch Bros has grown from 500 to 1,177 coffee shops in five years, aiming for 2,029 by 2029; despite a 27% stock decline, its Q1 revenue surged 31% year-over-year, reflecting strong market demand and innovative strategies.
- Walmart E-commerce Surge: Walmart's e-commerce market share has risen from 6.7% in 2024 to 9.2% today, with global e-commerce sales increasing 24% year-over-year, positioning it as the second-largest e-commerce player after Amazon, showcasing its adaptability and growth potential in a changing retail landscape.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Walmart is expanding its revenue sources through advertising, streaming, and healthcare, earning the title of 'Dividend King' with 53 consecutive years of dividend increases, highlighting its appeal as a stable investment despite market uncertainties.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- SailPoint Coverage Initiation: Roth initiates coverage of SailPoint with a Buy rating and a price target of $19, highlighting its leadership in Identity Governance and Administration, which is expected to drive future growth potential.
- Brown & Brown Market Outperform: Citizens initiates coverage of Brown & Brown with a Market Outperform rating and a $70 price target, indicating significant upside potential driven by strong market demand and business outlook.
- Ameren Upgrade: JPMorgan upgrades Ameren from Neutral to Overweight, noting that the growing demand from data centers will enhance the company's earnings outlook, with a significant potential increase in EPS CAGR.
- FedEx Rating Reinstatement: Citi reinstates a Buy rating on FedEx with a target price of $443, citing the company's strong performance amid macroeconomic shifts, solid execution, and value unlock from recent spin-offs.
See More
Starbucks Sees Growth in Afternoon Traffic as Part of Turnaround Strategy
- Afternoon Traffic Growth: Starbucks reports a significant increase in customer visits after 2 PM, particularly between 3 PM and 5 PM, which injects confidence into the company's turnaround strategy as it seeks to drive consistent traffic beyond the morning rush.
- Sales Surge: Data indicates that sales after 11 AM are projected to reach $11 billion in fiscal year 2025, showcasing the untapped potential of the afternoon sales window for the company.
- Innovation Driving Sales: The Refreshers beverage line has become Starbucks' second-best-selling category after espresso, contributing to afternoon sales growth and highlighting the company's success in beverage innovation.
- Intensifying Market Competition: With competitors like Dutch Bros and Dunkin' ramping up their afternoon marketing efforts, Starbucks' strategy for this time frame becomes crucial, as TD Cowen analysts expect new menu items and digital boards to further enhance traffic growth.
See More
Starbucks Sees Significant Growth in Afternoon Traffic
- Afternoon Traffic Surge: Internal data from February 15 to May 16 indicates that Starbucks is experiencing rapid growth in customer visits after 2 p.m., particularly between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., highlighting the company's potential to attract repeat customers.
- Strong Beverage Sales: The Refreshers platform has become Starbucks' second-best-selling beverage category after espresso, driving sales growth during the afternoon and expected to enhance customer loyalty further.
- Strategic Turnaround Success: CEO Brian Niccol emphasizes that the afternoon period represents a key growth opportunity in the company's turnaround strategy, as Starbucks aims for more consistent traffic beyond the morning rush, with recent quarterly earnings exceeding expectations and shares up 21% year-to-date.
- Intensifying Competition: With rivals like Dutch Bros and Dunkin' launching new beverages for the afternoon window, TD Cowen analysts suggest that Starbucks must leverage menu innovation and digital marketing to attract more customers and maintain top-of-mind awareness during coffee breaks.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Growth Stocks Amid Bull Market
- Amazon's Market Leadership: Amazon has become the largest company in the world by sales, with a 12% year-over-year increase in online store sales and a 14% rise in third-party sales in Q1 2023, showcasing its strong competitive edge and sustained growth potential.
- Dutch Bros' Innovative Expansion: Dutch Bros is leading in beverage innovation, achieving a 31% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, and plans to expand its store count from 1,177 to 2,029 by 2029, demonstrating its commitment to rapid growth.
- MercadoLibre's Strong Growth: MercadoLibre is excelling in e-commerce and fintech in Latin America, with a 46% year-over-year sales increase in Q1, while active users and total payments rose by 29% and 55%, respectively, highlighting its first-mover advantage in digital transformation.
- AI-Driven AWS Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 28% year-over-year sales increase in Q1, driven by the rapid growth of its AI business, reflecting the company's agility in responding to technological innovation and market demand shifts.
See More
Dutch Bros: Significant Future Growth Potential
- Significant Revenue Growth: Dutch Bros has demonstrated impressive revenue growth since its IPO, with year-over-year increases of 28% in Q2 25, 25% in Q3 25, 29% in Q4 25, and 31% in Q1 26, showcasing strong performance driven by new store openings and comparable sales growth despite previous inflationary pressures.
- Ambitious Expansion Plans: Since going public in 2021, Dutch Bros has rapidly expanded from approximately 500 stores to 1,000, with plans to double again by 2029 to reach 2,029 stores, and aims to enter more states, ultimately targeting 7,000 stores, indicating robust market penetration potential.
- Improving Profitability: In the first quarter, Dutch Bros reported a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA and net income of $23.7 million, up from $22.5 million last year, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability that underpin its long-term success.
- Attractive Valuation: While Dutch Bros stock is not objectively cheap, trading at 83 times trailing-12-month earnings, it is near historical lows, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in its growth potential, making it an appealing opportunity for growth-focused investors.
See More
Investment Opportunities: MercadoLibre, Dutch Bros, and Walmart
- MercadoLibre Growth Potential: MercadoLibre continues to thrive in e-commerce and fintech across 18 Latin American countries, with a 38% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume in Q1, indicating significant opportunities in underpenetrated markets; despite a 38% drop in stock price over the past year, management remains confident in future investments.
- Dutch Bros Expansion Plans: Dutch Bros has grown from 500 to 1,177 coffee shops in five years, aiming for 2,029 by 2029; despite a 27% stock decline, its Q1 revenue surged 31% year-over-year, reflecting strong market demand and innovative strategies.
- Walmart E-commerce Surge: Walmart's e-commerce market share has risen from 6.7% in 2024 to 9.2% today, with global e-commerce sales increasing 24% year-over-year, positioning it as the second-largest e-commerce player after Amazon, showcasing its adaptability and growth potential in a changing retail landscape.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Walmart is expanding its revenue sources through advertising, streaming, and healthcare, earning the title of 'Dividend King' with 53 consecutive years of dividend increases, highlighting its appeal as a stable investment despite market uncertainties.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- SailPoint Coverage Initiation: Roth initiates coverage of SailPoint with a Buy rating and a price target of $19, highlighting its leadership in Identity Governance and Administration, which is expected to drive future growth potential.
- Brown & Brown Market Outperform: Citizens initiates coverage of Brown & Brown with a Market Outperform rating and a $70 price target, indicating significant upside potential driven by strong market demand and business outlook.
- Ameren Upgrade: JPMorgan upgrades Ameren from Neutral to Overweight, noting that the growing demand from data centers will enhance the company's earnings outlook, with a significant potential increase in EPS CAGR.
- FedEx Rating Reinstatement: Citi reinstates a Buy rating on FedEx with a target price of $443, citing the company's strong performance amid macroeconomic shifts, solid execution, and value unlock from recent spin-offs.
See More
