Should You Buy Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
57.470
1 Day change
0.05%
52 Week Range
86.880
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term investor. Even though the chart is currently bearish/oversold, the fundamental growth profile remains strong (25%+ revenue growth and faster earnings growth), Wall Street sentiment is overwhelmingly positive with price targets clustered around ~$76–$84 (well above $58), and near-term catalysts (S&P MidCap 400 inclusion + menu/mobile initiatives + next earnings) can support re-rating. For an impatient beginner long-term investor, this is a reasonable entry today rather than waiting for a perfect technical bottom.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish in the near term, but approaching an oversold/bounce zone:
- Moving averages: Bearish stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms a downtrend.
- Momentum: MACD histogram -0.594 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still present.
- RSI(6): ~27.36 indicates the stock is stretched to the downside (often precedes short-term rebounds even within a downtrend).
- Levels: Price $58.17 is sitting just above S1 support (~58.03). A clean break below suggests next support near S2 (~56.50). Resistance/pivot is ~60.50, then ~62.98.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Bottom line: technically weak but near support; acceptable long-term entry, with near-term chop risk between ~$56.5–$60.5.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is bullish/“risk-on”:
- Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.42; Volume PCR 0.38), showing call-heavy positioning.
- IV: 30D IV ~53% vs HV ~46% (options priced a bit rich vs realized), suggesting elevated event/expectation premium.
- Activity: Today’s volume is far below 30D average (~35%), so sentiment is positive but not driven by unusually heavy fresh flow right now.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
- Index catalyst: Dutch Bros is set to join the S&P MidCap 400 (effective Feb 2), which can bring incremental passive/index buying.
- Growth narrative reinforced in recent coverage: Citi initiated Buy ($82 PT) citing portability and multiple same-store-sales levers over 12–24 months.
- Operational catalysts highlighted by analysts: expanded food menu and mobile ordering are visible 2026 drivers.
- Next event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (after hours) is a near-term catalyst if comps/units remain strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term technical downtrend: momentum (MACD) is still deteriorating and moving averages are bearish.
- Margin pressure: latest quarter showed gross margin down ~350 bps YoY, implying cost/rent/inputs can weigh on profitability even with strong sales.
- Sector/backdrop: some analysts note a muted coffee-away-from-home market and broader restaurant sales challenges.
- No supporting “smart money” signal: hedge fund and insider trend data is neutral; no recent congress trading data available (no political confirmation signal).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $423.6M, +25.24% YoY (strong unit/traffic growth profile).
- Net income: $17.50M, +38.37% YoY (earnings growing faster than sales).
- EPS: $0.14, +27.27% YoY.
- Gross margin: 28.37%, down ~3.50 pts YoY (key watch item—growth is strong, but profitability per dollar of sales dipped).
Overall: strong top-line + solid earnings growth, with margin compression as the main blemish.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is decisively positive with rising/steady high price targets:
- Citi (2026-01-25) initiated Buy, PT $82.
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-20) Overweight, PT $82 (slightly trimmed from $84).
- Barclays (2026-01-07) Overweight, PT raised to $76.
- KeyBanc (2025-12-16) initiated Overweight, PT $77.
- RBC (2025-12-03/12-09) Outperform, PT raised/kept at $80; named a favorite.
- Mizuho (2025-12-04) Outperform, PT raised to $80.
- Outlier: Piper Sandler (2025-11-06) Neutral, PT $63.
Wall Street pros: long runway for unit growth, strong brand resonance (Gen Z), multiple SSS levers (food/mobile), potential margin expansion longer-term.
Wall Street cons: near-term margin/cost pressure and pockets of execution metrics (e.g., items like RLMs noted by Piper) that can be scrutinized.
Wall Street analysts forecast BROS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BROS is 76.64 USD with a low forecast of 63 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BROS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BROS is 76.64 USD with a low forecast of 63 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 57.440
Low
63
Averages
76.64
High
85
Current: 57.440
Low
63
Averages
76.64
High
85
Citi
initiated
$82
AI Analysis
2026-01-25
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$82
AI Analysis
2026-01-25
New
initiated
Reason
Citi initiated coverage of Dutch Bros with a Buy rating and $82 price target. The company has proven its portability across the U.S. and, beyond a multi-year "brand funnel" tailwind, other key same-store-sales levers are set to layer into the investment story in the coming 12-24 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Dutch Bros' on-trend concept is well positioned to win share despite the firm's muted view of the coffee-away-from-home market, the firm added.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$84 -> $82
2026-01-20
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$84 -> $82
2026-01-20
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Dutch Bros to $82 from $84 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of the firm's 2026 outlook note on its restaurants and foodservice distributors coverage.
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