Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raises 2025 EPS Outlook Amid Downgrade by BNP Paribas

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

DLTR-2.84%

DG-1.78%

Source: stocktwits

Updated: 6d ago

0mins

Source: stocktwits

Weak Sales Environment: BNP Paribas downgraded Dollar Tree from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform', citing a more tepid sales environment due to intensified macroeconomic pressures, resulting in an approximately 8% decline in stock price over the past three sessions.
Earnings Outlook Raised: Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2025 earnings per share forecast to a range of $5.60 to $5.80, up from the previous estimate of $5.32 to $5.72, indicating the company's confidence in future profitability despite current challenges.
Sales Guidance Updated: The company projected net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion, with comparable sales growth of 5% to 5.5%, an improvement from earlier forecasts, reflecting a more optimistic view on market demand.
Market Sentiment Shift: Despite the stock's decline, retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', suggesting that investors remain cautiously optimistic about Dollar Tree's long-term prospects.

DLTR

$121.84+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on DLTR

Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLTR is 126.00 USD with a low forecast of 75.00 USD and a high forecast of 150.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

17 Analyst Rating

8 Buy

6 Hold

3 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 125.400

Low

75.00

Averages

126.00

High

150.00

Current: 125.400

Low

75.00

Averages

126.00

High

150.00

BNP Paribas

Neutral -> Underperform

downgrade

$118 -> $87

2026-01-21

Reason

BNP Paribas

Price Target

$118 -> $87

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

downgrade

Neutral -> Underperform

Reason

BNP Paribas earlier today downgraded Dollar Tree to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $87, down from $118. The firm sees a "more tepid" sales environment for the company after price increases lap and macro headwinds ramp. Dollar Tree's consumable units are falling and the benefits from its multi-price point strategy are waning, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BNP believes the company is also facing challenges from tax code changes, weight loss drug adoption, and agentic commerce. Dollar Tree in morning trading is down 2% to $130.87.

Truist

Scot Ciccarelli

Buy

maintain

$149 -> $156

2026-01-16

Reason

Truist

Scot Ciccarelli

Price Target

$149 -> $156

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli raised the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $156 from $149 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, despite concerns over softer traffic in Q3, Dollar Tree's sales trends have continued to exceed the firm's prior expectations for Q4, the firm added.

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Deutsche Bank

Hold

maintain

$126

2026-01-08

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Price Target

$126

2026-01-08

maintain

Hold

Reason

Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Dollar Tree with a Hold rating and $126 price target. The firm resumed coverage of the broadlines and food retailers. Deutsche expects 2026 to be another "mixed year," characterized by food disinflation, reduced government benefits, and consumers' value focus extending into the new year. The analyst says that while defensive sectors such as food retail could face a challenging setup, "there are tailwinds on the horizon," including a sizable stimulus in the first half of 2026.

Barclays

Seth Sigman

Overweight

maintain

$136 -> $149

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Seth Sigman

Price Target

$136 -> $149

2026-01-08

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Seth Sigman raised the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $149 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the broadlines, hardlines and food retail sector entering 2026. It sees improvements in discretionary goods demand with potential for a "modest bump" from consumer tax savings ahead and interest rate cuts.

About DLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc. is an operator of retail discount stores operating under the brand names of Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada. The Company operates approximately 9,000 stores and 18 distribution centers across 48 contiguous states and five Canadian provinces. The Dollar Tree segment operates a discount variety of stores offering merchandise at the opening price point. The Dollar Tree segment includes its operations under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. Its Dollar Tree Canada stores carry a range of products such as kitchen and dining, cleaning supplies, food and beverages, health and beauty, toys, party supplies, stationery, craft supplies, seasonal decor, and others. It also offers customers same-day local delivery. The Company also offers Dollar Tree Gift Cards and can be purchased in stores and online and redeemed in any one of its store locations.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.