ConocoPhillips Earnings Miss Expectations, Stock Price Declines
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: Fool
- Revenue Decline: ConocoPhillips reported nearly $14.19 billion in total revenue for Q4 2025, down from $14.74 billion in the same quarter of 2024, indicating a weakening competitive position in the oil and gas market that may affect investor confidence going forward.
- Net Income Plummets: The company's non-GAAP net income fell to $1.3 billion ($1.02 per share), significantly missing analyst expectations of $1.18 per share, reflecting a sharp decline in profitability that could heighten shareholder concerns about future performance.
- Oil Price Impact: The earnings release coincided with a recent downturn in oil prices, dampening market sentiment and leading to a more than 2% drop in ConocoPhillips' stock price, highlighting the market's sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations in the energy sector.
- Production Growth: Although production rose to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 137,000 barrels year-over-year primarily due to the acquisition of Marathon Oil, this growth did little to alleviate market worries regarding the company's overall performance.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COP is 113.39 USD with a low forecast of 98.00 USD and a high forecast of 132.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 104.980
Low
98.00
Averages
113.39
High
132.00
Current: 104.980
Low
98.00
Averages
113.39
High
132.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ConocoPhillips Rated Among Best Long-Term Low-Risk Stocks
- Target Price Increase: Roth Capital raised ConocoPhillips' price target from $105 to $112 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting the company's stable fourth-quarter performance and unchanged 2026 capital spending plans amid progress on cost-cutting initiatives.
- Cost Reduction Strategy: ConocoPhillips plans to cut $1 billion in capital and operating costs in 2026, a proactive measure to address profit expectations falling short of Wall Street due to declining crude prices, showcasing the company's resilience in challenging market conditions.
- Production Growth Outlook: Roth Capital anticipates modest production growth for ConocoPhillips in 2027, with total volumes expected to rise by about 2% and oil production by around 1%, indicating the company's ability to maintain production levels while controlling costs.
- Asset Sales Progress: ConocoPhillips completed $3.2 billion in asset sales in 2025 and is on track to meet its $5 billion divestment goal by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing efforts to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
See More
Conoco Focuses on Legal Recovery Over Production in Venezuela
- Legal Recovery Priority: Conoco's CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that the company is focusing on recovering cash through legal means for expropriated assets rather than immediately resuming production in Venezuela, reflecting a cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Strategic Value of Citgo: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization despite ongoing appeals and licensing hurdles.
- Cautious Market Re-entry: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return to Venezuela would require stable policies and security, which are currently lacking, leading the company to adopt a patient strategy to avoid unnecessary risks.
- Investor Focus: Conoco is not relying on Venezuelan production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, potentially providing a cash return that does not depend on crude prices, which could be a rare upside for investors.
See More
ConocoPhillips Focuses on Debt Recovery Over Drilling in Venezuela
- Debt Recovery Priority: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that ConocoPhillips' current focus is on recovering owed funds from two judgments rather than increasing production, reflecting the company's cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Citgo's Potential Value: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization.
- Challenges of Returning to Venezuela: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return would require stable policies and good local relations, which are currently absent, showcasing the company's high vigilance towards risks.
- Strategic Significance for Investors: ConocoPhillips is not relying on Venezuelan oil production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, a strategy that could provide cash returns independent of crude price fluctuations.
See More
Energy Stocks Rise as NYSE Energy Sector Index Gains 1.7%
- Strong Performance in Energy Stocks: Late Friday afternoon, energy stocks saw a broad increase, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising by 1.7%, reflecting optimistic market expectations for a recovery in energy demand, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Market Sentiment Improves: As signs of global economic recovery become more apparent, investor confidence in the energy sector has strengthened, likely leading to increased capital inflows into this area and enhancing overall market performance.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts indicate that with the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, energy companies are expected to achieve profit growth in the coming quarters, further solidifying their importance in investment portfolios.
- Investor Focus Shifts: The rise in energy stocks has attracted investor attention, potentially leading to more capital flowing into the sector, which could drive capital expenditures and expansion plans for related firms.
See More
ConocoPhillips Earnings Call Highlights Steady Execution Amid Volatility
- Strong Financial Performance: ConocoPhillips reported robust performance in the second half of 2025, driven by well productivity and efficiency gains, with projections for low-single-digit growth in 2026 and over 5% reduction in capital expenditures.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Analysts noted that ConocoPhillips continues to provide substantial cash returns to shareholders amid a volatile macro environment, with management implementing 'self-help' measures to maintain cash flows, demonstrating resilience in a softer oil price context.
- Portfolio Optimization: The company is focused on differentiating its Lower 48 assets through capital efficiency and inventory durability, with analysts stating that this clear and effective messaging enhances its competitive position against peers.
- Venezuela Priorities: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized that the top priority in Venezuela is recovering billions owed from past nationalizations rather than drilling new wells or expanding operations, despite winning approximately $10 billion in arbitration awards, collection efforts remain challenging.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shows Strong Cash Flow Growth Ahead
- Strong Cash Flow Performance: ConocoPhillips reported $19.9 billion in cash from operating activities and $7.3 billion in free cash flow for 2025, demonstrating resilience amid declining oil prices and highlighting the company's robust financial health.
- Significant Cost Savings: The successful integration of Marathon Oil led to over $1 billion in annual cost savings, with an additional $1 billion expected by the end of 2023, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency.
- Expansion Investment Plans: The company invested $12.6 billion in global oil and gas operations, including LNG export projects and the Willow oil project in Alaska, which is projected to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow by 2028, indicating strong growth potential.
- Ongoing Shareholder Returns: ConocoPhillips raised its dividend by 8% last year and returned $9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, with expectations of continued growth in free cash flow to enhance shareholder returns, solidifying its position as a top oil stock.
See More
ConocoPhillips Rated Among Best Long-Term Low-Risk Stocks
- Target Price Increase: Roth Capital raised ConocoPhillips' price target from $105 to $112 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting the company's stable fourth-quarter performance and unchanged 2026 capital spending plans amid progress on cost-cutting initiatives.
- Cost Reduction Strategy: ConocoPhillips plans to cut $1 billion in capital and operating costs in 2026, a proactive measure to address profit expectations falling short of Wall Street due to declining crude prices, showcasing the company's resilience in challenging market conditions.
- Production Growth Outlook: Roth Capital anticipates modest production growth for ConocoPhillips in 2027, with total volumes expected to rise by about 2% and oil production by around 1%, indicating the company's ability to maintain production levels while controlling costs.
- Asset Sales Progress: ConocoPhillips completed $3.2 billion in asset sales in 2025 and is on track to meet its $5 billion divestment goal by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing efforts to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
See More
Conoco Focuses on Legal Recovery Over Production in Venezuela
- Legal Recovery Priority: Conoco's CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that the company is focusing on recovering cash through legal means for expropriated assets rather than immediately resuming production in Venezuela, reflecting a cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Strategic Value of Citgo: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization despite ongoing appeals and licensing hurdles.
- Cautious Market Re-entry: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return to Venezuela would require stable policies and security, which are currently lacking, leading the company to adopt a patient strategy to avoid unnecessary risks.
- Investor Focus: Conoco is not relying on Venezuelan production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, potentially providing a cash return that does not depend on crude prices, which could be a rare upside for investors.
See More
ConocoPhillips Focuses on Debt Recovery Over Drilling in Venezuela
- Debt Recovery Priority: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that ConocoPhillips' current focus is on recovering owed funds from two judgments rather than increasing production, reflecting the company's cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Citgo's Potential Value: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization.
- Challenges of Returning to Venezuela: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return would require stable policies and good local relations, which are currently absent, showcasing the company's high vigilance towards risks.
- Strategic Significance for Investors: ConocoPhillips is not relying on Venezuelan oil production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, a strategy that could provide cash returns independent of crude price fluctuations.
See More
Energy Stocks Rise as NYSE Energy Sector Index Gains 1.7%
- Strong Performance in Energy Stocks: Late Friday afternoon, energy stocks saw a broad increase, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising by 1.7%, reflecting optimistic market expectations for a recovery in energy demand, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Market Sentiment Improves: As signs of global economic recovery become more apparent, investor confidence in the energy sector has strengthened, likely leading to increased capital inflows into this area and enhancing overall market performance.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts indicate that with the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, energy companies are expected to achieve profit growth in the coming quarters, further solidifying their importance in investment portfolios.
- Investor Focus Shifts: The rise in energy stocks has attracted investor attention, potentially leading to more capital flowing into the sector, which could drive capital expenditures and expansion plans for related firms.
See More
ConocoPhillips Earnings Call Highlights Steady Execution Amid Volatility
- Strong Financial Performance: ConocoPhillips reported robust performance in the second half of 2025, driven by well productivity and efficiency gains, with projections for low-single-digit growth in 2026 and over 5% reduction in capital expenditures.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Analysts noted that ConocoPhillips continues to provide substantial cash returns to shareholders amid a volatile macro environment, with management implementing 'self-help' measures to maintain cash flows, demonstrating resilience in a softer oil price context.
- Portfolio Optimization: The company is focused on differentiating its Lower 48 assets through capital efficiency and inventory durability, with analysts stating that this clear and effective messaging enhances its competitive position against peers.
- Venezuela Priorities: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized that the top priority in Venezuela is recovering billions owed from past nationalizations rather than drilling new wells or expanding operations, despite winning approximately $10 billion in arbitration awards, collection efforts remain challenging.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shows Strong Cash Flow Growth Ahead
- Strong Cash Flow Performance: ConocoPhillips reported $19.9 billion in cash from operating activities and $7.3 billion in free cash flow for 2025, demonstrating resilience amid declining oil prices and highlighting the company's robust financial health.
- Significant Cost Savings: The successful integration of Marathon Oil led to over $1 billion in annual cost savings, with an additional $1 billion expected by the end of 2023, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency.
- Expansion Investment Plans: The company invested $12.6 billion in global oil and gas operations, including LNG export projects and the Willow oil project in Alaska, which is projected to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow by 2028, indicating strong growth potential.
- Ongoing Shareholder Returns: ConocoPhillips raised its dividend by 8% last year and returned $9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, with expectations of continued growth in free cash flow to enhance shareholder returns, solidifying its position as a top oil stock.
See More
