Comparative Analysis of ConocoPhillips and Diamondback Energy
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: Fool
- Cash Flow Growth Potential: ConocoPhillips, with production averaging over 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, expects to generate an additional $1 billion in annual free cash flow by 2028, reaching a $4 billion inflection point in 2029, indicating strong growth potential to support dividend increases.
- Diversified Investment Strategy: ConocoPhillips engages in diversified investments across the U.S. and globally, including LNG and the Willow oil project in Alaska, balancing short-term and long-term investments, which enhances its market competitiveness and risk resilience.
- Flexibility of Diamondback Energy: Operating exclusively in the Permian Basin, Diamondback Energy produces around 920,000 BOE/d and generates over $6.1 billion in annual free cash flow, allowing it to adjust capital spending flexibly in response to oil price fluctuations.
- Market Environment Impact: Currently in a
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 110.830
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 110.830
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Comparative Analysis of ConocoPhillips and Diamondback Energy
- Cash Flow Growth Potential: ConocoPhillips, with production averaging over 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, expects to generate an additional $1 billion in annual free cash flow by 2028, reaching a $4 billion inflection point in 2029, indicating strong growth potential to support dividend increases.
- Diversified Investment Strategy: ConocoPhillips engages in diversified investments across the U.S. and globally, including LNG and the Willow oil project in Alaska, balancing short-term and long-term investments, which enhances its market competitiveness and risk resilience.
- Flexibility of Diamondback Energy: Operating exclusively in the Permian Basin, Diamondback Energy produces around 920,000 BOE/d and generates over $6.1 billion in annual free cash flow, allowing it to adjust capital spending flexibly in response to oil price fluctuations.
- Market Environment Impact: Currently in a
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- Impact of U.S. Policy: Following the U.S. military's detention of Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3, investors believe that major oil companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil may gain special access to Venezuela's 19.4 billion barrels of oil reserves, potentially driving oil prices higher and enhancing their market positions.
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ConocoPhillips Plans to Restart Three Norwegian Oil Fields
- Investment Scale: ConocoPhillips and its partners submitted plans to the Norwegian government to invest NOK 20 billion (approximately $2.1 billion) to restart production at three oil fields in the Greater Ekofisk area by the end of 2028, reflecting the company's confidence in the future oil and gas market.
- Development Details: The development will comprise 11 wells and four subsea templates tied back to the Ekofisk complex via a shared multiphase pipeline, with Albuskjell featuring two subsea templates and six wells, while Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma will each have one subsea template with three and two associated wells, respectively, aimed at enhancing overall capacity.
- Resource Potential: ConocoPhillips estimates that the Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk, and Tommeliten Gamma fields still hold 90 million to 120 million barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas and condensate, indicating significant development potential that is expected to generate substantial revenue for the company.
- Production Expectations: First gas is anticipated in Q4 2028, with peak production estimated at 36,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day, which, if regulatory approval is obtained, will further strengthen the company's competitive position in the Norwegian market.
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U.S. Energy Secretary Visits Venezuela Amid Oil Revenue Changes
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Comparative Analysis of ConocoPhillips and Diamondback Energy
- Cash Flow Growth Potential: ConocoPhillips, with production averaging over 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, expects to generate an additional $1 billion in annual free cash flow by 2028, reaching a $4 billion inflection point in 2029, indicating strong growth potential to support dividend increases.
- Diversified Investment Strategy: ConocoPhillips engages in diversified investments across the U.S. and globally, including LNG and the Willow oil project in Alaska, balancing short-term and long-term investments, which enhances its market competitiveness and risk resilience.
- Flexibility of Diamondback Energy: Operating exclusively in the Permian Basin, Diamondback Energy produces around 920,000 BOE/d and generates over $6.1 billion in annual free cash flow, allowing it to adjust capital spending flexibly in response to oil price fluctuations.
- Market Environment Impact: Currently in a
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Energy Stocks Unexpectedly Surge, Market Outlook Optimistic
- Oil Price Recovery: As of February 2026, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices have rebounded to $57 per barrel, down $15 from early 2025, indicating renewed investor interest in energy stocks amidst a backdrop of previously declining oil prices.
- Energy Sector Leadership: The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has surged 23% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 2% increase, reflecting a resurgence of investor confidence in the energy sector and suggesting potential future investment opportunities.
- Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy: U.S. military actions in Venezuela have sparked optimistic expectations for major oil companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil, which may gain access to the world's largest oil reserves, further driving their stock prices higher.
- Shift in Investor Sentiment: As interest in AI-related stocks wanes, investors are turning to energy stocks as a reliable long-term investment choice, although the market must remain cautious of potential geopolitical risks.
See More
Energy Stocks Surge Driven by U.S. Policy and AI Fatigue
- Energy Stock Surge: As of February 11, 2026, the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has risen 23% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's less than 2% increase, indicating strong investor confidence in the energy sector.
- Impact of U.S. Policy: Following the U.S. military's detention of Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3, investors believe that major oil companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil may gain special access to Venezuela's 19.4 billion barrels of oil reserves, potentially driving oil prices higher and enhancing their market positions.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: With rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, particularly the deployment of a carrier group in the region, the market anticipates that any conflict could lead to a temporary spike in global oil prices, further stimulating energy stock performance.
- Shift to Energy Investments: Amidst fatigue in AI-related stocks, some investors are reallocating funds to energy stocks, viewing them as a more reliable long-term investment, although experts caution that restoring Venezuela's oil sector will require years and substantial capital.
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- Financial Strain on Universities: Universities are facing increased financial pressure due to rising costs.
- Impact of Federal Funding Cuts: President Donald Trump's initiatives to reduce federal funding are affecting many educational institutions.
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ConocoPhillips Plans to Restart Three Norwegian Oil Fields
- Investment Scale: ConocoPhillips and its partners submitted plans to the Norwegian government to invest NOK 20 billion (approximately $2.1 billion) to restart production at three oil fields in the Greater Ekofisk area by the end of 2028, reflecting the company's confidence in the future oil and gas market.
- Development Details: The development will comprise 11 wells and four subsea templates tied back to the Ekofisk complex via a shared multiphase pipeline, with Albuskjell featuring two subsea templates and six wells, while Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma will each have one subsea template with three and two associated wells, respectively, aimed at enhancing overall capacity.
- Resource Potential: ConocoPhillips estimates that the Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk, and Tommeliten Gamma fields still hold 90 million to 120 million barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas and condensate, indicating significant development potential that is expected to generate substantial revenue for the company.
- Production Expectations: First gas is anticipated in Q4 2028, with peak production estimated at 36,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day, which, if regulatory approval is obtained, will further strengthen the company's competitive position in the Norwegian market.
See More
U.S. Energy Secretary Visits Venezuela Amid Oil Revenue Changes
- Revenue Account Change: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that Venezuelan oil revenues will no longer be deposited in a Qatar account but will instead go to the U.S. Treasury, aiming to enhance fund transparency and reduce creditor claim risks.
- Surge in Oil Sales Revenue: Wright revealed that Venezuelan oil sales revenue has now topped $1 billion, with an expected additional $5 billion in crude sales through short-term agreements in the coming months, indicating strong U.S. interest and intent to rebuild Venezuela's oil market.
- Political Recognition Complexity: Although the U.S. does not officially recognize the government led by Delcy Rodríguez, Wright indicated that elections and a transition of power may occur during Trump's term, which will influence the U.S.'s ultimate recognition of the Venezuelan government.
- Debt Risk Management: Wright noted that the initial $500 million from oil sales was deposited in Qatar to prevent creditors from freezing the funds, reflecting the immense pressure Venezuela faces in repaying tens of billions in sovereign debt and nationalizing assets.
See More
