Company Expects 5%-10% Growth in Conversion Revenue for 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 20 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy KALU?
For the full year 2026, the Company expects to improve Conversion Revenue by 5% to 10% and Adjusted EBITDA by 5% to 15% year-over-year, primarily due to strengthening operational performance with metal assumptions that are closely aligned with current market futures curves.
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Analyst Views on KALU
Wall Street analysts forecast KALU stock price to fall
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 139.380
Low
105.00
Averages
106.50
High
108.00
Current: 139.380
Low
105.00
Averages
106.50
High
108.00
About KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a producer of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products. The Company's fabricated aluminum mill products include flat-rolled (plate, sheet, and coil), extruded (rod, bar, hollows, and shapes), drawn (rod, bar, pipe, tube and wire) and certain cast aluminum products. Its business focuses on producing rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminum products used principally for aerospace and defense, aluminum beverage and food packaging, general engineering that includes consumer durables, electronics and products for electrical and machinery and equipment applications, and automotive products. It provides its products for a range of market applications, including aerospace and high strength (Aero/HS products); beverage and food packaging products (Packaging); general engineering (GE products); automotive (Automotive Extrusions); and other products. Its Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for many North American automotive applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Kaiser Aluminum Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Strong Outlook
- Consistent Performance Growth: Kaiser Aluminum achieved over 25% EBITDA growth in Q4 2025, with total net sales reaching $3.4 billion, reflecting the company's ability to exceed internal expectations amid favorable metal pricing and moderated startup costs, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns: The capital expenditures for 2025 amounted to $137 million, with approximately $51 million returned to shareholders through dividend payments, indicating a commitment to growth investments while prioritizing shareholder interests, which enhances market confidence.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The company projects a 5% to 10% increase in conversion revenue and a 5% to 15% rise in EBITDA for 2026, particularly in aerospace and packaging, where shipments are expected to grow by 10% to 15%, laying a solid foundation for future performance.
- Operational Efficiency Focus: Management emphasized a focus on operational leverage and cost control, and despite risks from metal price volatility, strong market demand and stable pricing strategies are expected to support future cash flow and profitability.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Reports Q4 Net Income of $28 Million
- Company Overview: Kaiser Aluminum reported a net income of USD 28 million for the fourth quarter.
- Financial Performance: The financial results indicate a positive performance for the company in the specified quarter.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Performance: Kaiser Aluminum reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.53, missing expectations by $0.03, indicating some pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved net sales of $929 million, a 21.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $19 million, demonstrating strong sales performance amid robust aluminum market demand.
- Market Reaction: Despite the EPS miss, the sales growth may attract investor attention, especially given the overall strong performance in the aluminum sector, potentially providing support for the stock price.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Kaiser Aluminum continues to be rated as a buy among analysts, reflecting optimism about its future growth potential despite the earnings pressure, indicating market confidence in its long-term strategy.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Anticipates 5% to 10% Increase in Conversion Revenue for Full Year 2026
- Company Overview: Kaiser Aluminum is focused on improving its conversion revenue.
- Financial Expectations: The company anticipates a revenue increase of 5% to 10% for the fully year 2026.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement: Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 18, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.56, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 372.7%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability that could positively impact stock prices.
- Strong Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $910 million, representing a 19.0% year-over-year growth, which highlights robust demand in the aluminum market and may further solidify the company's market position.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Kaiser Aluminum has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating a level of reliability in financial performance that enhances investor confidence.
- Recent Forecast Revisions: In the last three months, there have been two upward revisions for both EPS and revenue estimates, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance, which may attract more investor interest in Kaiser Aluminum's stock.
See More
Brightline Capital Management Acquires Kaiser Aluminum Shares
- New Investment Position: On February 13, 2026, Brightline Capital Management disclosed a new position by acquiring 168,000 shares of Kaiser Aluminum for approximately $19.30 million, indicating strong conviction in the stock's potential.
- Portfolio Impact: This acquisition positions Kaiser Aluminum to represent 7.8% of Brightline's reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting its significance in the portfolio and potentially influencing future investment strategies.
- Performance Highlights: Kaiser Aluminum reported net sales of $844 million and operating income of $49 million in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $81 million and a 23.2% margin, showcasing robust profitability.
- Market Outlook: Despite a dip in shipments, Kaiser Aluminum's profitability has improved due to favorable pricing and metal dynamics, suggesting that if margins normalize at higher levels, future earnings power could exceed expectations.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Strong Outlook
- Consistent Performance Growth: Kaiser Aluminum achieved over 25% EBITDA growth in Q4 2025, with total net sales reaching $3.4 billion, reflecting the company's ability to exceed internal expectations amid favorable metal pricing and moderated startup costs, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns: The capital expenditures for 2025 amounted to $137 million, with approximately $51 million returned to shareholders through dividend payments, indicating a commitment to growth investments while prioritizing shareholder interests, which enhances market confidence.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The company projects a 5% to 10% increase in conversion revenue and a 5% to 15% rise in EBITDA for 2026, particularly in aerospace and packaging, where shipments are expected to grow by 10% to 15%, laying a solid foundation for future performance.
- Operational Efficiency Focus: Management emphasized a focus on operational leverage and cost control, and despite risks from metal price volatility, strong market demand and stable pricing strategies are expected to support future cash flow and profitability.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Reports Q4 Net Income of $28 Million
- Company Overview: Kaiser Aluminum reported a net income of USD 28 million for the fourth quarter.
- Financial Performance: The financial results indicate a positive performance for the company in the specified quarter.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Performance: Kaiser Aluminum reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.53, missing expectations by $0.03, indicating some pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved net sales of $929 million, a 21.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $19 million, demonstrating strong sales performance amid robust aluminum market demand.
- Market Reaction: Despite the EPS miss, the sales growth may attract investor attention, especially given the overall strong performance in the aluminum sector, potentially providing support for the stock price.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Kaiser Aluminum continues to be rated as a buy among analysts, reflecting optimism about its future growth potential despite the earnings pressure, indicating market confidence in its long-term strategy.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Anticipates 5% to 10% Increase in Conversion Revenue for Full Year 2026
- Company Overview: Kaiser Aluminum is focused on improving its conversion revenue.
- Financial Expectations: The company anticipates a revenue increase of 5% to 10% for the fully year 2026.
See More
Kaiser Aluminum Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement: Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 18, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.56, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 372.7%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability that could positively impact stock prices.
- Strong Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $910 million, representing a 19.0% year-over-year growth, which highlights robust demand in the aluminum market and may further solidify the company's market position.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Kaiser Aluminum has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating a level of reliability in financial performance that enhances investor confidence.
- Recent Forecast Revisions: In the last three months, there have been two upward revisions for both EPS and revenue estimates, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance, which may attract more investor interest in Kaiser Aluminum's stock.
See More
Brightline Capital Management Acquires Kaiser Aluminum Shares
- New Investment Position: On February 13, 2026, Brightline Capital Management disclosed a new position by acquiring 168,000 shares of Kaiser Aluminum for approximately $19.30 million, indicating strong conviction in the stock's potential.
- Portfolio Impact: This acquisition positions Kaiser Aluminum to represent 7.8% of Brightline's reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting its significance in the portfolio and potentially influencing future investment strategies.
- Performance Highlights: Kaiser Aluminum reported net sales of $844 million and operating income of $49 million in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $81 million and a 23.2% margin, showcasing robust profitability.
- Market Outlook: Despite a dip in shipments, Kaiser Aluminum's profitability has improved due to favorable pricing and metal dynamics, suggesting that if margins normalize at higher levels, future earnings power could exceed expectations.
See More
