Cocoa Prices Plummet, Impacting Food Giants' Margins
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 16 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy MDLZ?
Source: seekingalpha
- Cocoa Price Collapse: Cocoa prices have fallen 75% from their 2024 peak, nearing 2023 levels, which Morgan Stanley analysts believe will lead to significant margin inflection for Mondelez and Hershey in the second half of the year, indicating market expectations for cost relief.
- Demand and Supply Dynamics: The sharp decline in cocoa prices is driven by deteriorating demand and improving supply expectations, with analysts noting that the market's excessive focus on short-term pricing rollback risks may overlook the potential for medium-term margin recovery.
- Profit Outlook Adjustment: Analysts expect both companies to start experiencing cocoa cost deflation later this year, with a more meaningful margin tailwind anticipated by 2027, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future profitability.
- Investment Opportunity in Mondelez: Morgan Stanley is more bullish on Mondelez, suggesting it offers over 28% upside potential in the current environment, supported by its exposure to higher growth regions and strong brands, presenting a more compelling risk/reward profile.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MDLZ?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MDLZ
Wall Street analysts forecast MDLZ stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.160
Low
62.00
Averages
66.82
High
84.00
Current: 57.160
Low
62.00
Averages
66.82
High
84.00
About MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc. is a snack company. The Company’s core business is making and selling chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks. The Company also has additional businesses in adjacent, locally relevant categories including gum and candy, cheese and grocery and powdered beverages. Its portfolio includes global and local brands such as Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar and Tate’s Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka and Toblerone chocolate. The Company’s segments include Latin America, AMEA, Europe and North America. It sells its products in over 150 countries and has operations in approximately 80 countries, including 147 principal manufacturing and processing facilities across 46 countries. It sells its products to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores and other retail food outlets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Cocoa Prices Plummet, Impacting Food Giants' Margins
- Cocoa Price Collapse: Cocoa prices have fallen 75% from their 2024 peak, nearing 2023 levels, which Morgan Stanley analysts believe will lead to significant margin inflection for Mondelez and Hershey in the second half of the year, indicating market expectations for cost relief.
- Demand and Supply Dynamics: The sharp decline in cocoa prices is driven by deteriorating demand and improving supply expectations, with analysts noting that the market's excessive focus on short-term pricing rollback risks may overlook the potential for medium-term margin recovery.
- Profit Outlook Adjustment: Analysts expect both companies to start experiencing cocoa cost deflation later this year, with a more meaningful margin tailwind anticipated by 2027, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future profitability.
- Investment Opportunity in Mondelez: Morgan Stanley is more bullish on Mondelez, suggesting it offers over 28% upside potential in the current environment, supported by its exposure to higher growth regions and strong brands, presenting a more compelling risk/reward profile.
See More
Analysis of High Dividend Stock Investment Opportunities
- Diageo's Transformation Challenges: Diageo, the world's largest spirits company, has seen its stock price decline due to industry sluggishness and trade tensions, currently valued at $43 billion; despite halving its dividend to free up cash flow, its forward P/E ratio of 12 remains below the decade average, indicating investment potential.
- Campbell's Defensive Investment: With a high dividend yield of 7.2%, Campbell's Company attracts investors despite restructuring challenges; its free cash flow of $2.31 per share over the past four quarters significantly exceeds the $1.56 dividend payout, demonstrating financial robustness.
- Mondelez's Recovery Potential: Mondelez International stands to benefit from a 66% drop in cocoa prices, improving profit margins; with a current dividend yield of 3.5% and an expected earnings growth of 8% annually over the next three to five years, it offers a solid return outlook for long-term investors.
- Market Performance of Consumer Stocks: While many consumer stocks have declined amid the tech boom, Mondelez's stock remains about 30% off its 2023 peak, but is expected to rebound in 2026 as margins recover, making it an ideal choice for long-term investment.
See More
Market Watch: Meta Partners with Nebius for AI Capacity
- Meta and Nebius Partnership: Meta Platforms has signed a five-year deal with cloud company Nebius, potentially worth up to $27 billion, indicating a strategic investment in AI computing capacity as Meta plans to utilize Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform.
- Layoff Plans Impact: Meta's potential 20% workforce reduction aims to balance AI spending, estimated to save between $5 billion and $6 billion, which, while not significantly impacting this year's expenses, is expected to boost earnings next year, reflecting the company's focus on cost control.
- Micron's New Facility: Micron is planning to build a new manufacturing facility for leading-edge DRAM products in Taiwan to address the supply crunch caused by the AI boom, showcasing the company's proactive expansion strategy in the global semiconductor market.
- Eaton Acquisition Impact: Jefferies reinstated coverage of Eaton with a buy rating, highlighting that its acquisition of Boyd Thermal will enhance Eaton's exposure to AI-related business, indicating market confidence in electrical equipment suppliers' roles in emerging technologies.
See More
New Production Line Launched at Toblerone Plant in Switzerland
- Production Line Launch: The new production line at the Toblerone plant in Bern, Switzerland, was officially inaugurated on March 10, marking one of Mondelēz International's largest investments in its chocolate production network in the last decade, aimed at enhancing Toblerone's production and innovation capabilities to accelerate global growth in the premium segment.
- Global Center Establishment: The launch of the new production line signifies a critical milestone in creating a global 'Center of Excellence' in Bern, which is expected to better meet the demand for Toblerone in over 120 countries while solidifying its leadership position in the premium chocolate market.
- Commitment to Swiss Production: Swiss Minister of Economic Affairs Guy Parmelin emphasized that approximately 90% of Toblerone products are still produced in Bern, reflecting a strong commitment to Swiss manufacturing and highlighting the brand's deep connection to Swiss history and identity.
- Future Growth Potential: The Toblerone brand has significant growth potential in the global premium market, and with the new production line operational, Mondelēz International aims to leverage its global awareness and uniqueness to enhance its leadership position in the World Travel Retail business.
See More
Toblerone Invests in New Production Line in Switzerland
- Investment Commitment: In 2025, Toblerone's plant in Bern announced an investment of approximately 65 million Swiss Francs to establish a global Center of Excellence, demonstrating a strong commitment to Switzerland while enhancing the brand's competitiveness in the premium chocolate market.
- Production Capacity Boost: The completion of the new production line installation marks one of the largest investments by Mondelēz International in its chocolate production network in the last decade, expected to significantly increase Toblerone's production capacity to meet global demand for this iconic brand.
- Global Market Expansion: Currently, about 90% of Toblerone products are manufactured in Switzerland and exported to over 120 countries, with the new investment poised to further drive the brand's growth in the premium market and strengthen its leadership in the World Travel Retail business.
- Heritage and Innovation: Since its inception in 1908, Toblerone has become a symbol of Switzerland, and the new production line not only enhances production efficiency but also fosters brand innovation, ensuring sustained growth in the global chocolate market.
See More
Toblerone Unveils New Production Line to Boost Global Growth
- Production Capacity Boost: The newly inaugurated modern production line for Toblerone in Bern, Switzerland, is set to significantly enhance production capacity, expected to meet the growing global demand for premium chocolate, thereby driving the brand's global growth strategy.
- Substantial Investment: This investment is regarded as one of the most significant in Mondelēz International's chocolate production network over the past decade, aimed at enhancing production efficiency and innovation capabilities to further solidify Toblerone's leadership in the premium market.
- Brand History and Culture: Since its inception in 1908, Toblerone has become a symbol of Switzerland, with approximately 90% of its global sales produced in Bern; the new production line will further reinforce its status as a cultural icon of Swiss identity.
- Global Market Expansion: Currently exported to over 120 countries, the new production line will support Toblerone's expansion in the global premium chocolate market, leveraging the brand's strong recognition and uniqueness to drive future market share growth.
See More
Cocoa Prices Plummet, Impacting Food Giants' Margins
- Cocoa Price Collapse: Cocoa prices have fallen 75% from their 2024 peak, nearing 2023 levels, which Morgan Stanley analysts believe will lead to significant margin inflection for Mondelez and Hershey in the second half of the year, indicating market expectations for cost relief.
- Demand and Supply Dynamics: The sharp decline in cocoa prices is driven by deteriorating demand and improving supply expectations, with analysts noting that the market's excessive focus on short-term pricing rollback risks may overlook the potential for medium-term margin recovery.
- Profit Outlook Adjustment: Analysts expect both companies to start experiencing cocoa cost deflation later this year, with a more meaningful margin tailwind anticipated by 2027, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future profitability.
- Investment Opportunity in Mondelez: Morgan Stanley is more bullish on Mondelez, suggesting it offers over 28% upside potential in the current environment, supported by its exposure to higher growth regions and strong brands, presenting a more compelling risk/reward profile.
See More
Analysis of High Dividend Stock Investment Opportunities
- Diageo's Transformation Challenges: Diageo, the world's largest spirits company, has seen its stock price decline due to industry sluggishness and trade tensions, currently valued at $43 billion; despite halving its dividend to free up cash flow, its forward P/E ratio of 12 remains below the decade average, indicating investment potential.
- Campbell's Defensive Investment: With a high dividend yield of 7.2%, Campbell's Company attracts investors despite restructuring challenges; its free cash flow of $2.31 per share over the past four quarters significantly exceeds the $1.56 dividend payout, demonstrating financial robustness.
- Mondelez's Recovery Potential: Mondelez International stands to benefit from a 66% drop in cocoa prices, improving profit margins; with a current dividend yield of 3.5% and an expected earnings growth of 8% annually over the next three to five years, it offers a solid return outlook for long-term investors.
- Market Performance of Consumer Stocks: While many consumer stocks have declined amid the tech boom, Mondelez's stock remains about 30% off its 2023 peak, but is expected to rebound in 2026 as margins recover, making it an ideal choice for long-term investment.
See More
Market Watch: Meta Partners with Nebius for AI Capacity
- Meta and Nebius Partnership: Meta Platforms has signed a five-year deal with cloud company Nebius, potentially worth up to $27 billion, indicating a strategic investment in AI computing capacity as Meta plans to utilize Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform.
- Layoff Plans Impact: Meta's potential 20% workforce reduction aims to balance AI spending, estimated to save between $5 billion and $6 billion, which, while not significantly impacting this year's expenses, is expected to boost earnings next year, reflecting the company's focus on cost control.
- Micron's New Facility: Micron is planning to build a new manufacturing facility for leading-edge DRAM products in Taiwan to address the supply crunch caused by the AI boom, showcasing the company's proactive expansion strategy in the global semiconductor market.
- Eaton Acquisition Impact: Jefferies reinstated coverage of Eaton with a buy rating, highlighting that its acquisition of Boyd Thermal will enhance Eaton's exposure to AI-related business, indicating market confidence in electrical equipment suppliers' roles in emerging technologies.
See More
New Production Line Launched at Toblerone Plant in Switzerland
- Production Line Launch: The new production line at the Toblerone plant in Bern, Switzerland, was officially inaugurated on March 10, marking one of Mondelēz International's largest investments in its chocolate production network in the last decade, aimed at enhancing Toblerone's production and innovation capabilities to accelerate global growth in the premium segment.
- Global Center Establishment: The launch of the new production line signifies a critical milestone in creating a global 'Center of Excellence' in Bern, which is expected to better meet the demand for Toblerone in over 120 countries while solidifying its leadership position in the premium chocolate market.
- Commitment to Swiss Production: Swiss Minister of Economic Affairs Guy Parmelin emphasized that approximately 90% of Toblerone products are still produced in Bern, reflecting a strong commitment to Swiss manufacturing and highlighting the brand's deep connection to Swiss history and identity.
- Future Growth Potential: The Toblerone brand has significant growth potential in the global premium market, and with the new production line operational, Mondelēz International aims to leverage its global awareness and uniqueness to enhance its leadership position in the World Travel Retail business.
See More
Toblerone Invests in New Production Line in Switzerland
- Investment Commitment: In 2025, Toblerone's plant in Bern announced an investment of approximately 65 million Swiss Francs to establish a global Center of Excellence, demonstrating a strong commitment to Switzerland while enhancing the brand's competitiveness in the premium chocolate market.
- Production Capacity Boost: The completion of the new production line installation marks one of the largest investments by Mondelēz International in its chocolate production network in the last decade, expected to significantly increase Toblerone's production capacity to meet global demand for this iconic brand.
- Global Market Expansion: Currently, about 90% of Toblerone products are manufactured in Switzerland and exported to over 120 countries, with the new investment poised to further drive the brand's growth in the premium market and strengthen its leadership in the World Travel Retail business.
- Heritage and Innovation: Since its inception in 1908, Toblerone has become a symbol of Switzerland, and the new production line not only enhances production efficiency but also fosters brand innovation, ensuring sustained growth in the global chocolate market.
See More
Toblerone Unveils New Production Line to Boost Global Growth
- Production Capacity Boost: The newly inaugurated modern production line for Toblerone in Bern, Switzerland, is set to significantly enhance production capacity, expected to meet the growing global demand for premium chocolate, thereby driving the brand's global growth strategy.
- Substantial Investment: This investment is regarded as one of the most significant in Mondelēz International's chocolate production network over the past decade, aimed at enhancing production efficiency and innovation capabilities to further solidify Toblerone's leadership in the premium market.
- Brand History and Culture: Since its inception in 1908, Toblerone has become a symbol of Switzerland, with approximately 90% of its global sales produced in Bern; the new production line will further reinforce its status as a cultural icon of Swiss identity.
- Global Market Expansion: Currently exported to over 120 countries, the new production line will support Toblerone's expansion in the global premium chocolate market, leveraging the brand's strong recognition and uniqueness to drive future market share growth.
See More
