Carlyle Group Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy CG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.01, exceeding expectations by $0.02, indicating robust performance in investment management and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, with a record date of February 16, 2026, and a payment date of February 20, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Total Annual Distribution: The Board announced an aggregate distribution of $1.40 for common shareholders for the full year 2025, reflecting strong profitability and cash flow management, which enhances shareholder value.
- Investment Management Outlook: Carlyle faces challenges in investment management performance in 2026, necessitating close attention to market dynamics and strategic adjustments to ensure continued growth and competitiveness.
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Analyst Views on CG
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CG is 67.91 USD with a low forecast of 53.00 USD and a high forecast of 83.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 58.390
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
Current: 58.390
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
About CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment company. The Company's segments include Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest. The Global Private Equity segment advises the Company's buyout, growth, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds. The segment also includes the NGP Carry Funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management (NGP). The Global Credit segment advises funds and vehicles that pursue investment strategies including insurance solutions, liquid credit, opportunistic credit, direct lending, asset-backed finance, aviation finance, infrastructure credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment advises global private equity programs that pursue secondary purchases and financing of existing portfolios, managed co-investment programs, and primary fund investments. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment helps investors meet their objectives through tailored portfolio construction and investment selection.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Carlyle Group to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 6
- Earnings Announcement: Carlyle Group is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 6, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.99, reflecting a 7.6% year-over-year increase, which could influence investor sentiment positively.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.05 billion, representing a 1.9% year-over-year growth, and achieving this target would help the company maintain a stable market position in the competitive investment management sector.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Carlyle has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating a degree of financial stability that may attract more investor interest.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and eight downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced no upward revisions and one downward revision, reflecting a cautious market outlook on Carlyle's future performance.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.01, exceeding expectations by $0.02, indicating robust performance in investment management and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, with a record date of February 16, 2026, and a payment date of February 20, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Total Annual Distribution: The Board announced an aggregate distribution of $1.40 for common shareholders for the full year 2025, reflecting strong profitability and cash flow management, which enhances shareholder value.
- Investment Management Outlook: Carlyle faces challenges in investment management performance in 2026, necessitating close attention to market dynamics and strategic adjustments to ensure continued growth and competitiveness.
See More
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- Earnings Announcement: Carlyle Group is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 6, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.99, reflecting a 7.6% year-over-year increase, which could influence investor sentiment positively.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $1.05 billion, representing a 1.9% year-over-year growth, and achieving this target would help the company maintain a stable market position in the competitive investment management sector.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Carlyle has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating a degree of financial stability that may attract more investor interest.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and eight downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced no upward revisions and one downward revision, reflecting a cautious market outlook on Carlyle's future performance.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.01, exceeding expectations by $0.02, indicating robust performance in investment management and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, with a record date of February 16, 2026, and a payment date of February 20, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Total Annual Distribution: The Board announced an aggregate distribution of $1.40 for common shareholders for the full year 2025, reflecting strong profitability and cash flow management, which enhances shareholder value.
- Investment Management Outlook: Carlyle faces challenges in investment management performance in 2026, necessitating close attention to market dynamics and strategic adjustments to ensure continued growth and competitiveness.
See More
Market Dynamics: Earnings Reports and IPOs Ahead
- Earnings Release: Under Armour is set to announce its Q3 earnings before the market opens on February 6, with analysts predicting a mid-single-digit revenue decline due to ongoing tariff impacts and soft demand, prompting investor interest in the company's strategic repositioning post-split with NBA star Stephen Curry.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the same day, and market participants will closely monitor his insights on balancing cooling inflation against a resilient economy, which could influence expectations for the timing and pace of rate cuts, especially following delays in labor data.
- IPO Developments: Liftoff Mobile is debuting on Nasdaq with a target valuation exceeding $5 billion, representing a test of investor appetite for new companies, particularly with high-profile names like SpaceX and Open AI poised for future listings.
- Market Interest: In addition to Liftoff Mobile, Jennifer Garner's food company Once Upon a Farm is also slated to start trading on the NYSE, further indicating strong market interest in emerging enterprises and investors' risk appetite.
See More
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- Philip Morris Earnings Outlook: The expected EPS for Q4 2025 is $1.67, representing a 7.74% increase year-over-year, showcasing the company's ability to consistently exceed market expectations and enhancing its competitive edge in the tobacco industry.
- Cboe Global Markets Performance: The forecasted EPS is $2.93, reflecting a significant 39.52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong recovery and improved profitability that may attract more investor interest.
- Biogen Earnings Warning: The anticipated EPS is $1.60, a substantial 53.49% decrease compared to last year, highlighting significant challenges the company faces, which could impact market confidence and stock performance.
- AerCap's Stability: The expected EPS is $3.31, unchanged from last year, indicating the company's resilience in the transportation sector, maintaining profitability despite industry fluctuations.
See More
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- Stock Declines: Shares of Blue Owl, TPG, Ares Management, and KKR fell by double-digit percentages on Tuesday due to fears of AI disrupting industries, highlighting the market's sensitivity to risks associated with private credit holdings.
- Software Sector Impact: Concerns over future growth and profit margins in the software sector have intensified, leading to a 20% decline in the iShares Software ETF this year, including a 5% drop on Tuesday, reflecting a significant loss of investor confidence in tech stocks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS estimates that default rates for private credit firms in the U.S. could rise to 13% if AI triggers major disruptions, compared to just 4% for high-yield bonds, indicating the vulnerability of the private credit market.
- Concentration of Risks: With 25% to 35% of the private credit market exposed to AI disruption risks, UBS analysts emphasize that the lack of diversification in this market is concerning compared to the high-yield corporate bond market, which has only 8% exposure to technology.
See More
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- Successful IPO: Medline went public on December 17, 2025, at Nasdaq, marking the largest private equity-backed IPO in U.S. history by raising over $7 billion, demonstrating strong market demand for medical supplies.
- Stock Performance: Since its debut, Medline's stock has surged nearly 30%, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential and providing a positive signal for future IPOs of private equity-backed companies.
- Private Equity Market Dynamics: The number of global private equity exits rose 5.4% last year to 3,149, yet the total deal value declined by 21.2% year-over-year to $412.1 billion, indicating pressure and recalibration within the industry amid high interest rates.
- Investor Confidence: Due to stalled exits over recent years, private equity fundraising declined by 11% in 2025 to $490.81 billion, leading limited partners to be cautious about reinvesting, reflecting concerns over future investment returns.
See More
