Bernstein Downgrades Amgen (AMGN) to Market Perform, Predicts 2026 as a 'Waiting Year'
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 21 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AMGN?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade: Bernstein has downgraded Amgen (AMGN) from Outperform to Market Perform, predicting that its stock will fluctuate within 15% of the $335 target price, indicating market caution regarding future growth prospects.
- Drug Outlook: While Amgen's obesity candidate MariTide is expected to exceed consensus expectations, analysts argue that the lack of critical data until Q1 2027 will limit upward revisions, impacting investor confidence.
- Competitive Pressure: Amgen's cholesterol drug Repatha faces competition from Merck's (MRK) oral PCSK9 inhibitor Enlicitide, expected to launch in H2, posing risks to Repatha's future growth amid increasing price competition.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Although analysts have raised non-GAAP earnings forecasts for Amgen for this year and next, they believe the stock may stagnate until meaningful catalysts emerge beyond 2026, reflecting concerns about long-term growth.
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Analyst Views on AMGN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMGN stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 353.280
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
Current: 353.280
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
About AMGN
Amgen Inc. is a biotechnology company. It discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers medicines for the toughest diseases. It focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its expertise to strive for solutions that improve people’s lives. It operates in the human therapeutics segment. Its marketed products portfolio includes EPOGEN (epoetin alfa); Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa); Parsabiv (etelcalcetide); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); KANJINTI (trastuzumab-anns); Otezla; BLINCYTO (blinatumomab); ACTIMMUNE (interferon gamma-1b); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); Sensipar/Mimpara (cinacalcet); Prolia (denosumab); ENBREL; QUINSAIR (levofloxacin); Repatha (evolocumab) and others. It markets ENBREL, a tumor necrosis factor blocker, in the United States and Canada. It markets Otezla, a small molecule that inhibits phosphodiesterase 4, in many countries around the world. It markets Repatha, a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, in many countries around the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Surge in Oil Prices: Crude oil prices surged approximately 10% on Thursday due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with market participants anxious about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, although reports indicated Iran and Oman are working to restore traffic through the strait.
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- Manufacturing Incentives: Drugmakers can reduce or avoid tariffs by relocating production to the U.S. or negotiating deals with the administration, aiming to stimulate domestic manufacturing and potentially leading to a resurgence of investments in the pharmaceutical sector.
- Tariff Implementation Details: The draft proposal includes a 20% tariff for companies planning to onshore production, escalating to 100% in four years, which could significantly influence the long-term strategic positioning of the pharmaceutical industry.
- National Security Considerations: The tariff proposal stems from a Commerce Department investigation that identified certain pharmaceutical imports as a national security risk, highlighting the government's heightened focus on the security of drug supply chains.
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- Clinical Trial Phase: Amgen will sponsor a global Phase 1b study to evaluate the drug combination in patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, which accounts for about two-thirds of SCLC cases, indicating the potential market size of this collaboration.
- Ownership and Supply of Drug: Zai Lab will retain full ownership of zocilurtatug pelitecan and supply the experimental therapy for the Amgen-led study, ensuring control over the development process while potentially enhancing its market competitiveness.
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See More
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- Global Study Launch: Amgen will sponsor a global Phase 1b study while Zai Lab retains full ownership of zocilurtatug pelitecan, which is expected to drive the development of new therapies and enhance the company's competitiveness in the oncology market.
- Efficacy Potential: Zocilurtatug pelitecan has demonstrated a high response rate at the EORTC-NCI-AACR and ASCO meetings, particularly showing significant intracranial activity in heavily pretreated small cell lung cancer patients, potentially offering new treatment options for this challenging disease.
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