Avis Budget Group Short Interest Hits Record High of 86.9%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was up 3.7%, the Nasdaq Composite was up 4.3%, the Russell 2000 index was up 4.2, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas up 4.5% and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas up 3.9% in the four-day trading session range through April 9.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSOrtex-reported short interest in Avis Budget Grouphas continued to surge this week, rising from 67.7% to a new record high of 86.9% while days to cover was slipping to 8.2 from 10.7 primarily as a result of a spike in trading volume. We profiled the name two weeks ago, with the rapid gains in the stock price attributed to increased demand at the car-rental counters due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, and the tension between the momentum buyers and the shorts betting on the inevitable pullback has only escalated. This week, in spite of a valuation-driven downgrade by Deutsche Bank, the stock was up another 56% and has now tripled in price in just a three-week period.Ortex-reported short interest in VNET Groupis up notably for the second consecutive week even though the stock appears to have found some support after losing nearly half of its value since mid-February. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float on VNET jumped five percentage points to 30.7% - a new record high. Days-to-cover on the name also nudged higher to 5.7 from 5.6, with the increase in trading activity driving a more subtle increase. Shares of the Chinese data center provider were up about 3% in the four-day period covered, though VNET is flat year-to-date, having shed all of its early 2026 gains.Ortex-reported short interest on Vital Farmstroughed about two weeks ago around 21% but has since shot up while shares are looking for a bottom after the stock lost more than half of its market cap since mid-February. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float on Vital Farms rose two percentage points to 26.6% - the highest level since the last week of February. Days-to-cover on the name were up from 4.1 to 4.4. The stock rose about 3% in the four-day period covered through Thursday, though shares of the pasture-raised egg producer are down 59% year-to-date. The company's Q4 results in late February were especially damaging, earning multiple sell-side downgrades and sending the stock down by double-digits on lower than expected bottom line and below-consensus guidance.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Tripadvisorpeaked just above 31% on March 17th but has since turned decidedly lower, sliding for three consecutive weeks just as the stock went on to erase a two-day decline of over 20% that followed the company's disappointing Q4 results in mid-February. Short-covering has picked up in earnest after the company confirmed earlier reports of activist involvement of Starboard Value – a 9% equity holder – on March 23, and this week the flight among the bears was especially pronounced, with short interest as a percentage of free float falling four percentage points to a two-month low of 25.6%. Days to cover on Tripadvisor was down from 8.5 to 7.8. The stock rallied about 6% over the four-day period through Thursday, though while shares are now up 21% from their mid-March lows, year-to-date return on Tripadvisor – inclusive of Friday's 5% drop - is still down 25%.
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- Attendance at Shareholder Meeting: Greg Abel's first annual meeting as CEO saw attendance at just over half capacity, indicating a significant drop in draw compared to the Buffett and Munger era, although it still surpassed typical corporate annual meetings.
- Capital Allocation Concerns: Abel's failure to provide clear guidance on the future of Berkshire's equity portfolio and substantial cash reserves has heightened investor concerns regarding the company's capital allocation strategy, potentially impacting market confidence in Berkshire.
- Lackluster Buyback Performance: Despite announcing a resumption of stock buybacks, Berkshire repurchased only $234 million in shares during Q1, falling short of market expectations and possibly undermining investor trust in the company's buyback strategy.
- New CFO Compensation: The new CFO, Charles Chang, will receive an annual salary of $8 million, a significant increase compared to the previous CFO Marc Hamburg's total compensation of $4.3 million, raising potential shareholder concerns about the reasonableness of executive pay.
- Transaction Completion: Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CAPREIT) successfully completed its acquisition of European Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (ERES) at a price of $1.19 per unit for all outstanding ERES units not already owned, marking a significant step in CAPREIT's diversification strategy.
- Increased Ownership: Following the transaction, CAPREIT directly or indirectly owns 93,106,232 ERES units, achieving full control of 100% of ERES's shares, which further solidifies its leadership position in the Canadian real estate market.
- Change in Listing Status: With the completion of the transaction, ERES units are expected to be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange shortly, and ERES has applied to cease being a reporting issuer, demonstrating its commitment to strategic transformation.
- Asset Value Overview: As of December 31, 2025, ERES owned residential suites valued at approximately €310.1 million, including 410 units classified as assets held for sale, reflecting its strong performance in the Dutch market and future growth potential.
Company Overview: Avis Budget Group Inc. is a car rental company that operates under various brands, including Avis and Budget.
Target Price Adjustment: JPMorgan has reduced the target price for Avis Budget Group's stock from $165 to $140.
- Undervalued Stock: Avis Budget CEO Brian Choi stated during the latest earnings call that the stock is undervalued and ruled out issuing new shares at current levels, which bolstered investor confidence despite short interest reaching 25.6%, the highest in nearly six years.
- Guidance Upgrade: The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $850 million to $1 billion after exceeding its internal plan by $50 million, indicating significant operational improvement amid strong rental demand, even though Q1 reported a loss per share of $8.01, wider than expected.
- Investor Sentiment Fluctuation: Recent trading activity from Pentwater Capital, which sold about 4.3 million shares, has drawn market attention and led to a steep decline in stock price; Choi emphasized the company's commitment to reviewing these transactions closely and aggressively pursuing shareholder rights where appropriate.
- Retail Trader Sentiment: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for CAR is deemed 'extremely bearish' with a 122% surge in message volume over 24 hours, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance, despite a 97% increase in stock price over the past year.
- Oil Price Surge Impacts Market: WTI crude oil prices rose over 5% to a two-week high as the US maintains its naval blockade of Iran, leading to increased inflation expectations that negatively affect the stock market.
- Strong Tech Stock Performance: The Nasdaq 100 index increased by 0.09%, primarily driven by strong earnings from NXP Semiconductors and Seagate Technology, both up over 14%, indicating robust demand for AI infrastructure.
- Housing Data Exceeds Expectations: US March housing starts unexpectedly rose by 10.8% to 1.502 million, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 1.380 million, demonstrating resilience in the construction sector that may support the stock market.
- Fed Policy Remains Unchanged: The Federal Reserve decided to keep monetary policy unchanged at the FOMC meeting despite a record number of dissenting votes, with markets anticipating future policy will continue to focus on oil prices and inflation dynamics.
- Oil Price Surge Affects Market: WTI crude oil prices have surged over 4% due to the US maintaining its naval blockade of Iran, reaching a two-week high, which has raised inflation expectations and negatively impacted the stock market.
- Strong Performance in Tech Stocks: The Nasdaq 100 index is up 0.20%, primarily driven by NXP Semiconductors and Seagate Technology, both rising over 10% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings, indicating robust demand for AI infrastructure.
- Housing Data Exceeds Expectations: US March housing starts unexpectedly rose by 10.8% to 1.502 million, significantly surpassing the expected decline to 1.380 million, demonstrating resilience in the construction sector that may support the stock market.
- Stable Fed Policy Expectations: The market anticipates that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, as further developments in oil prices and inflation are still under observation, reflecting a cautious approach to future economic policy.











