Avis Budget Group Short Interest Hits Record High of 86.9%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was up 3.7%, the Nasdaq Composite was up 4.3%, the Russell 2000 index was up 4.2, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas up 4.5% and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas up 3.9% in the four-day trading session range through April 9.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSOrtex-reported short interest in Avis Budget Grouphas continued to surge this week, rising from 67.7% to a new record high of 86.9% while days to cover was slipping to 8.2 from 10.7 primarily as a result of a spike in trading volume. We profiled the name two weeks ago, with the rapid gains in the stock price attributed to increased demand at the car-rental counters due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, and the tension between the momentum buyers and the shorts betting on the inevitable pullback has only escalated. This week, in spite of a valuation-driven downgrade by Deutsche Bank, the stock was up another 56% and has now tripled in price in just a three-week period.Ortex-reported short interest in VNET Groupis up notably for the second consecutive week even though the stock appears to have found some support after losing nearly half of its value since mid-February. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float on VNET jumped five percentage points to 30.7% - a new record high. Days-to-cover on the name also nudged higher to 5.7 from 5.6, with the increase in trading activity driving a more subtle increase. Shares of the Chinese data center provider were up about 3% in the four-day period covered, though VNET is flat year-to-date, having shed all of its early 2026 gains.Ortex-reported short interest on Vital Farmstroughed about two weeks ago around 21% but has since shot up while shares are looking for a bottom after the stock lost more than half of its market cap since mid-February. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float on Vital Farms rose two percentage points to 26.6% - the highest level since the last week of February. Days-to-cover on the name were up from 4.1 to 4.4. The stock rose about 3% in the four-day period covered through Thursday, though shares of the pasture-raised egg producer are down 59% year-to-date. The company's Q4 results in late February were especially damaging, earning multiple sell-side downgrades and sending the stock down by double-digits on lower than expected bottom line and below-consensus guidance.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Tripadvisorpeaked just above 31% on March 17th but has since turned decidedly lower, sliding for three consecutive weeks just as the stock went on to erase a two-day decline of over 20% that followed the company's disappointing Q4 results in mid-February. Short-covering has picked up in earnest after the company confirmed earlier reports of activist involvement of Starboard Value – a 9% equity holder – on March 23, and this week the flight among the bears was especially pronounced, with short interest as a percentage of free float falling four percentage points to a two-month low of 25.6%. Days to cover on Tripadvisor was down from 8.5 to 7.8. The stock rallied about 6% over the four-day period through Thursday, though while shares are now up 21% from their mid-March lows, year-to-date return on Tripadvisor – inclusive of Friday's 5% drop - is still down 25%.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on CAR
About CAR
About the author
Car Rental Stocks Retreat as Avis and Hertz Experience Sharp Declines
- Significant Price Decline: On Wednesday, Avis Budget (CAR) fell 7.6% and Hertz Global (HTZ) dropped 9.2%, indicating market pressure and concerns regarding the fundamentals of the car rental industry.
- End of Short Squeeze: Over the past six weeks, Avis (CAR) surged over 250% and Hertz (HTZ) increased more than 50%, but as the short squeeze concluded, investors began to take profits, leading to the recent price pullback.
- High Short Interest Remains: Although short interest has decreased, both stocks still have over 20% of their float shorted, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the weak fundamentals of the rental car sector, particularly regarding EV transitions and thin margins.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: Following the volatility in stock prices, market sentiment has shifted, with Deutsche Bank adopting a cautious stance on Avis Budget, indicating investor reservations about the company's future outlook.
Analysis of CAR Options Contracts and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $370.00 put option is $163.20, and if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $370.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $206.80, which is approximately a 3% discount from the current price of $381.54, making it attractive for those interested in CAR.
- Return Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 44.11% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized return of 16.51%, positioning this contract as an appealing investment choice, particularly in the current market context.
- Call Option Returns: The $510.00 call option has a current bid of $174.00, and if an investor buys CAR shares at $381.54 and sells this call, they could achieve a total return of 79.27% if the stock is called away at the December 2028 expiration, highlighting the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk Assessment: The $510.00 call option has a 29% chance of expiring worthless, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, which enhances the investment's safety margin, while the current implied volatility (82%) and actual volatility (70%) provide a comprehensive risk-reward analysis for investors.
CAR Stock Soars Amid High Short Interest, Analysts Remain Cautious
- Stock Performance Surge: Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares have experienced a remarkable rally, climbing from $135.56 on March 30 to $411.50 by Tuesday's close, more than tripling in value and reaching new highs, indicating strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Increased Short Pressure: Short interest in CAR stock rose from 21.41% to 23% in April according to Koyfin data, suggesting that bearish sentiment remains high, which could lead to further price volatility, especially in the short term.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Deutsche Bank downgraded CAR from 'buy' to 'hold', primarily based on the company's fundamentals, yet acknowledged that technical factors could drive the stock higher, reflecting a divergence in analysts' views on the current share price.
- Retail Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment has shifted from neutral to bullish, although there is a significant influx of bearish users predicting a 30% decline, illustrating the complex market sentiment surrounding CAR stock that may influence future trading dynamics.
Avis Budget Group Stock Downgraded Amid Valuation Concerns
- Downgrade Impact: Deutsche Bank downgraded Avis Budget Group's stock from 'Buy' to 'Hold', maintaining a $128 price target, indicating approximately 50% downside from current levels, reflecting market concerns over the company's valuation.
- Disappointing Earnings Forecast: Street estimates suggest Avis is expected to report a loss of $7 per share and revenue of $2.4 billion for the quarter ending March 2026, highlighting significant challenges in profitability, with CEO Brian Choi calling the results 'unacceptable'.
- Significant Stock Volatility: Despite gaining over 100% year-to-date, CAR shares fell 11% on Friday, marking the largest single-day loss since February 19, 2026, indicating extreme fluctuations in market sentiment.
- Retail Investor Sentiment: Despite the drop, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'bullish' with extremely high message volumes, as some users still expect the stock to rise to $500, reflecting optimism for a potential rebound.
Avis Budget Group Shares Hit New 52-Week High Amid Short Squeeze
- Stock Surge: Avis Budget Group's stock rose by 15.7% today, reaching a price of $254.78, which marks a 150% increase from its mid-March low and sets a new 52-week high, indicating strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Short Selling Pressure: As of the latest report, 23% of the outstanding shares and 48% of the total float have been sold short, and as the stock continues to rise, short sellers are facing increasing unrealized losses, reflecting heightened market interest and speculative sentiment surrounding the stock.
- Psychological Game: Short sellers are attempting to sway market sentiment by spreading negative news, while proponents of the short squeeze argue that a wave of buying will occur as short sellers close their positions, creating a complex market dynamic that could drive prices higher.
- Investment Risks: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, the uncertainty in the market suggests that investors should proceed with caution, especially considering the disconnect between stock price volatility and the company's fundamentals, leading to a recommendation for investors to remain on the sidelines.
HTZ Stock Rises 10%, Surpasses 200-DMA for the First Time in Over Two Months – Retail Anticipates Additional Growth
Used Vehicle Prices Rise: Wholesale used vehicle prices increased in March, with the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index reaching its highest levels since summer 2023, reflecting strong market demand.
Hertz Stock Surge: Shares of Hertz Global Holdings jumped nearly 10%, reclaiming their 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2022, driven by a significant increase in stock volume.
Retail Demand Remains Strong: Retail conditions improved in early 2026, supported by higher tax refunds and robust consumer demand, leading to a 2% year-over-year increase in used vehicle sales.
Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment on stocks has remained "extremely bullish," with significant buzz around Hertz, as the stock has gained around 10% year-to-date.
Car Rental Stocks Retreat as Avis and Hertz Experience Sharp Declines
- Significant Price Decline: On Wednesday, Avis Budget (CAR) fell 7.6% and Hertz Global (HTZ) dropped 9.2%, indicating market pressure and concerns regarding the fundamentals of the car rental industry.
- End of Short Squeeze: Over the past six weeks, Avis (CAR) surged over 250% and Hertz (HTZ) increased more than 50%, but as the short squeeze concluded, investors began to take profits, leading to the recent price pullback.
- High Short Interest Remains: Although short interest has decreased, both stocks still have over 20% of their float shorted, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the weak fundamentals of the rental car sector, particularly regarding EV transitions and thin margins.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: Following the volatility in stock prices, market sentiment has shifted, with Deutsche Bank adopting a cautious stance on Avis Budget, indicating investor reservations about the company's future outlook.
Analysis of CAR Options Contracts and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $370.00 put option is $163.20, and if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $370.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $206.80, which is approximately a 3% discount from the current price of $381.54, making it attractive for those interested in CAR.
- Return Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 44.11% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized return of 16.51%, positioning this contract as an appealing investment choice, particularly in the current market context.
- Call Option Returns: The $510.00 call option has a current bid of $174.00, and if an investor buys CAR shares at $381.54 and sells this call, they could achieve a total return of 79.27% if the stock is called away at the December 2028 expiration, highlighting the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk Assessment: The $510.00 call option has a 29% chance of expiring worthless, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, which enhances the investment's safety margin, while the current implied volatility (82%) and actual volatility (70%) provide a comprehensive risk-reward analysis for investors.
CAR Stock Soars Amid High Short Interest, Analysts Remain Cautious
- Stock Performance Surge: Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares have experienced a remarkable rally, climbing from $135.56 on March 30 to $411.50 by Tuesday's close, more than tripling in value and reaching new highs, indicating strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Increased Short Pressure: Short interest in CAR stock rose from 21.41% to 23% in April according to Koyfin data, suggesting that bearish sentiment remains high, which could lead to further price volatility, especially in the short term.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Deutsche Bank downgraded CAR from 'buy' to 'hold', primarily based on the company's fundamentals, yet acknowledged that technical factors could drive the stock higher, reflecting a divergence in analysts' views on the current share price.
- Retail Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment has shifted from neutral to bullish, although there is a significant influx of bearish users predicting a 30% decline, illustrating the complex market sentiment surrounding CAR stock that may influence future trading dynamics.
Avis Budget Group Stock Downgraded Amid Valuation Concerns
- Downgrade Impact: Deutsche Bank downgraded Avis Budget Group's stock from 'Buy' to 'Hold', maintaining a $128 price target, indicating approximately 50% downside from current levels, reflecting market concerns over the company's valuation.
- Disappointing Earnings Forecast: Street estimates suggest Avis is expected to report a loss of $7 per share and revenue of $2.4 billion for the quarter ending March 2026, highlighting significant challenges in profitability, with CEO Brian Choi calling the results 'unacceptable'.
- Significant Stock Volatility: Despite gaining over 100% year-to-date, CAR shares fell 11% on Friday, marking the largest single-day loss since February 19, 2026, indicating extreme fluctuations in market sentiment.
- Retail Investor Sentiment: Despite the drop, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'bullish' with extremely high message volumes, as some users still expect the stock to rise to $500, reflecting optimism for a potential rebound.
Avis Budget Group Shares Hit New 52-Week High Amid Short Squeeze
- Stock Surge: Avis Budget Group's stock rose by 15.7% today, reaching a price of $254.78, which marks a 150% increase from its mid-March low and sets a new 52-week high, indicating strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Short Selling Pressure: As of the latest report, 23% of the outstanding shares and 48% of the total float have been sold short, and as the stock continues to rise, short sellers are facing increasing unrealized losses, reflecting heightened market interest and speculative sentiment surrounding the stock.
- Psychological Game: Short sellers are attempting to sway market sentiment by spreading negative news, while proponents of the short squeeze argue that a wave of buying will occur as short sellers close their positions, creating a complex market dynamic that could drive prices higher.
- Investment Risks: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, the uncertainty in the market suggests that investors should proceed with caution, especially considering the disconnect between stock price volatility and the company's fundamentals, leading to a recommendation for investors to remain on the sidelines.
HTZ Stock Rises 10%, Surpasses 200-DMA for the First Time in Over Two Months – Retail Anticipates Additional Growth
Used Vehicle Prices Rise: Wholesale used vehicle prices increased in March, with the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index reaching its highest levels since summer 2023, reflecting strong market demand.
Hertz Stock Surge: Shares of Hertz Global Holdings jumped nearly 10%, reclaiming their 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2022, driven by a significant increase in stock volume.
Retail Demand Remains Strong: Retail conditions improved in early 2026, supported by higher tax refunds and robust consumer demand, leading to a 2% year-over-year increase in used vehicle sales.
Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment on stocks has remained "extremely bullish," with significant buzz around Hertz, as the stock has gained around 10% year-to-date.
