Should You Buy Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
115.670
1 Day change
0.50%
52 Week Range
212.810
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. CAR is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages + weakening momentum), insiders are aggressively selling, and options positioning is slightly bearish. Even though the last reported quarter showed strong YoY profit growth, the stock’s current tape and sentiment do not support an “enter now” decision.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish. The moving average stack is negative (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside structure. MACD histogram is -0.792 and negatively expanding, suggesting bearish momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~25.5 signals the stock is oversold/washed-out short term, but oversold alone is not a buy signal in a downtrend. Price (~115.3) is sitting near key supports (S1 ~116.24 and S2 ~112.48); a break below ~112.5 would worsen downside risk, while meaningful trend improvement likely requires reclaiming the pivot (~122.33) and holding above it.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is mildly bearish-to-neutral: put open interest exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.2), while daily put/call volume is roughly balanced (1.01). Implied volatility (30d ~49.6) is above historical volatility (~43.0), but IV percentile (~25) and IV rank (~12) suggest volatility is not elevated versus its own history (i.e., not a panic extreme). Today’s options volume is below the 30-day average (~66%), pointing to limited urgency/conviction today.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are net buyers (buying amount up ~185.6% last quarter), which can be supportive if it continues.
Last reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed strong profitability improvements (Net Income +51.5% YoY, EPS +52.3% YoY) and higher gross margin (+20.7% YoY to ~39.0%), which is fundamentally positive.
Analyst price targets still sit above the current price (e.g., Barclays PT $120; Morgan Stanley PT $142), implying upside if execution and cycle improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Next earnings: 2026-02-18 (After Hours) with an EPS estimate of about -0.12 (QDEC 2025), which introduces near-term uncertainty and suggests the market expects a weak/seasonally pressured quarter.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$3.519B (+1.12% YoY), while profitability accelerated: Net Income ~$359M (+51.48% YoY) and EPS 10.11 (+52.26% YoY). Gross margin improved to ~38.99 (+20.71% YoY). This shows strong margin/profit growth despite modest revenue growth—fundamentally encouraging—but the market is not currently rewarding it in the price trend.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is cautious/neutral. Barclays (2025-11-03) kept Equal Weight but cut the price target to $120 from $150 after Q3, signaling reduced confidence in near-term upside. Morgan Stanley (2025-12-08) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight while raising PT to $142 from $115, framing a more cautious 2026 outlook for the broader autos/shared mobility space. Wall Street pros: (Pros) targets above spot and profitability improved materially in 2025/Q3. (Cons) ratings are neutral, at least one major PT cut occurred post-earnings, and the outlook commentary is more cautious into 2026.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast CAR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAR is 122 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 142 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CAR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAR is 122 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 142 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 115.100
Low
105
Averages
122
High
142
Current: 115.100
Low
105
Averages
122
High
142
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$115 -> $142
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$115 -> $142
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Avis Budget to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $142, up from $115, following a change in analysts. The firm adjusted ratings in the autos and shared mobility group as part of its 2026 outlook. Morgan Stanley is "leaning more cautious" into next year, saying the electric vehicle "winter" will sustain through 2026. This is counterbalanced by a "moderately more positive" outlook on internal combustion engines and hybrids, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Barclays
Equal Weight
downgrade
$150 -> $120
2025-11-03
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$150 -> $120
2025-11-03
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Avis Budget to $120 from $150 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following the Q3 report.
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