Arcos Dorados Earnings Preview: Key Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ARCO?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Revenue Performance: Arcos Dorados reported revenues of $1.19 billion last quarter, a 5.2% year-on-year increase, but while it beat EPS estimates, it significantly missed same-store sales expectations, indicating complexities in business growth.
- Market Expectations: This quarter, the market anticipates Arcos Dorados's revenue to grow by 11.2% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with a 2.7% decline recorded in the same quarter last year, reflecting investor optimism about the company's recovery.
- Analyst Confidence: Over the past 30 days, analysts covering Arcos Dorados have generally reaffirmed their estimates, suggesting confidence in the company's stability heading into earnings, despite multiple revenue misses over the past two years.
- Stock Performance: Arcos Dorados's stock has declined by 4.5% over the past month, while traditional fast food stocks have averaged a 2.1% drop, with the current average analyst price target at $9.91, significantly above the current share price of $7.98, indicating potential upside.
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Analyst Views on ARCO
Wall Street analysts forecast ARCO stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 8.090
Low
8.50
Averages
8.50
High
8.50
Current: 8.090
Low
8.50
Averages
8.50
High
8.50
About ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is a McDonald's franchisee. The Company operates or franchises over 2,140 McDonald's-branded restaurants. It divides its operations into four geographical divisions: Brazil; the Caribbean division, consisting of Aruba, Colombia, Curacao, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States Virgin Islands of Saint Croix and Saint Thomas, and Venezuela; the North Latin America division (NOLAD), consisting of Costa Rica, Mexico and Panama, and the South Latin America division (SLAD), consisting of Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay. Its menus feature over three tiers of products: entry-level options, such as its Big Pleasures, Small Prices offerings and Almuerzos Colombianos (Colombian Lunches) in Colombia; core menu options, such as the Big Mac, Happy Meal and Quarter Pounder, and premium options, such as Big Tasty or Angus premium hamburgers and chicken sandwiches and low-calorie or low-sodium products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Brightlight Capital Reduces Stake in Hilton Grand Vacations
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- Ownership Ratio Change: Following this transaction, Brightlight's stake in Hilton Grand Vacations now represents 9.65%, which may affect market confidence in the company, especially as its primary revenue source from vacation ownership sales faces challenges.
- Financial Overview: As of February 13, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations' stock price was $46.22, reflecting a 9.3% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 2.5 percentage points, indicating relative weakness in the market that could influence investor decisions.
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Brightlight Capital Reduces Stake in Hilton Grand Vacations
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- Holding Proportion Change: Following this transaction, Brightlight's stake decreased to 303,200 shares valued at $13.57 million, representing 9.65% of its assets under management, which places it outside the fund's top five holdings, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 13, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations' stock was priced at $46.22, up 9.3% over the past year, yet underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.5 percentage points, reflecting a potential decline in market confidence towards the company.
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Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
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- Earnings Miss: Arcos Dorados reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.12, missing estimates by $0.08, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Strong Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $1.27 billion, reflecting an 11.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $10 million, which underscores its solid sales performance in the Latin American market and strengthens the foundation for future growth.
- Debt Restructuring Plans: Arcos Dorados is planning to refinance its debt to cut financing costs, a strategy that could improve its financial health and free up cash flow for business expansion.
- Market Rating Attention: Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating on Arcos Dorados indicates market interest in its future performance; despite the current earnings report falling short of expectations, there remains potential to attract investor interest.
See More
Arcos Dorados Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results
- Significant Revenue Growth: Total revenue reached $1.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 10.7% year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $4.7 billion, reflecting strong performance in the Latin American market and reinforcing the company's market leadership.
- Robust Comparable Sales: Systemwide comparable sales rose 16.0% in Q4 and 13.0% for the full year, aligning with inflation rates, indicating effective strategies in customer demand and market adaptability, thereby enhancing brand competitiveness.
- Digital Sales Surge: Digital sales accounted for 61% of systemwide sales in 2025, growing 18.7% year-over-year, showcasing the company's success in digital transformation, improving customer experience, and driving sales growth.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.28 per share for 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability, aimed at boosting shareholder confidence and attracting further investment.
See More
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is set to announce its Q4 earnings on March 19 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.20, reflecting a 28.6% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $1.26 billion, indicating a 10.5% year-over-year growth potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past year, Arcos Dorados has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating a level of stability and reliability in its financial performance that could instill investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and one downward revision, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Expansion Strategy: The company plans to open up to 115 new restaurants by 2026, a strategic move that not only aims to increase market share but also has the potential to lower financing costs by diversifying revenue streams, thereby enhancing the company's financial health.
See More
Brightlight Capital Reduces Stake in Hilton Grand Vacations
- Stake Reduction Impact: Brightlight Capital Management disclosed in a February 17, 2026 SEC filing that it reduced its stake in Hilton Grand Vacations by 79,500 shares, resulting in a $2.43 million decrease in quarter-end position value, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Ownership Ratio Change: Following this transaction, Brightlight's stake in Hilton Grand Vacations now represents 9.65%, which may affect market confidence in the company, especially as its primary revenue source from vacation ownership sales faces challenges.
- Financial Overview: As of February 13, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations' stock price was $46.22, reflecting a 9.3% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 2.5 percentage points, indicating relative weakness in the market that could influence investor decisions.
- Investor Considerations: Hilton Grand Vacations relies heavily on vacation ownership sales and resort operations for revenue; while it has stable recurring income, it still faces consumer credit risk, prompting investors to monitor market demand and credit conditions' impact on sales and profitability.
See More
Brightlight Capital Reduces Stake in Hilton Grand Vacations
- Share Reduction Details: Brightlight Capital Management disclosed in an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, that it sold 79,500 shares of Hilton Grand Vacations, resulting in a $2.43 million decline in quarter-end position value, reflecting both trading activity and stock price movements.
- Holding Proportion Change: Following this transaction, Brightlight's stake decreased to 303,200 shares valued at $13.57 million, representing 9.65% of its assets under management, which places it outside the fund's top five holdings, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 13, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations' stock was priced at $46.22, up 9.3% over the past year, yet underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.5 percentage points, reflecting a potential decline in market confidence towards the company.
- Business Model and Risks: Hilton Grand Vacations relies on revenue from timeshare sales and club management, with approximately 333,000 members; however, its performance is highly dependent on consumer demand and credit risk, suggesting that economic fluctuations could significantly impact profitability.
See More
Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
Arcos Dorados Q4 Earnings Report Misses EPS Estimates
- Earnings Miss: Arcos Dorados reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.12, missing estimates by $0.08, indicating pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Strong Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $1.27 billion, reflecting an 11.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $10 million, which underscores its solid sales performance in the Latin American market and strengthens the foundation for future growth.
- Debt Restructuring Plans: Arcos Dorados is planning to refinance its debt to cut financing costs, a strategy that could improve its financial health and free up cash flow for business expansion.
- Market Rating Attention: Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating on Arcos Dorados indicates market interest in its future performance; despite the current earnings report falling short of expectations, there remains potential to attract investor interest.
See More
Arcos Dorados Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results
- Significant Revenue Growth: Total revenue reached $1.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 10.7% year-over-year, with full-year revenue at $4.7 billion, reflecting strong performance in the Latin American market and reinforcing the company's market leadership.
- Robust Comparable Sales: Systemwide comparable sales rose 16.0% in Q4 and 13.0% for the full year, aligning with inflation rates, indicating effective strategies in customer demand and market adaptability, thereby enhancing brand competitiveness.
- Digital Sales Surge: Digital sales accounted for 61% of systemwide sales in 2025, growing 18.7% year-over-year, showcasing the company's success in digital transformation, improving customer experience, and driving sales growth.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The Board declared a cash dividend of $0.28 per share for 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability, aimed at boosting shareholder confidence and attracting further investment.
See More
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is set to announce its Q4 earnings on March 19 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.20, reflecting a 28.6% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $1.26 billion, indicating a 10.5% year-over-year growth potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past year, Arcos Dorados has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating a level of stability and reliability in its financial performance that could instill investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward and one downward revision, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Expansion Strategy: The company plans to open up to 115 new restaurants by 2026, a strategic move that not only aims to increase market share but also has the potential to lower financing costs by diversifying revenue streams, thereby enhancing the company's financial health.
See More
