Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of HGV stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing mixed technical signals:

• Currently trading at $48.24, up from recent lows around $40
• RSI-14 at 44.28 indicates neutral momentum
• MACD shows slight bearish divergence with MACD at 0.14 and signal at 0.40
• Trading above all major moving averages (5-day: $41.03, 20-day: $41.66, 200-day: $39.72)

Fundamental Analysis

Recent financial performance shows some concerns:

• Revenue growth slowed: $3.59B in 2023 vs $3.54B in 2022 (+1.5%)
• Net income declined: $313M in 2023 vs $352M in 2022 (-11.1%)
• Margins compressed: Net margin decreased to 8.71% from 9.95%
• Debt levels increased: Debt/Equity ratio rose to 213.48% from 174.48%

Recent Developments

According to recent news, Mizuho Securities maintains a Buy rating on HGV with a price target of $45.20, suggesting moderate upside potential. However, insider sentiment appears negative, with 37 insiders selling shares recently, including a significant sale by EVP Charles R. Jr. Corbin of 50,000 shares.

Valuation

Recommendation

HOLD - While the technical trend shows improvement and analyst sentiment remains positive, several factors suggest caution:

1. Deteriorating fundamentals with margin compression
2. High debt levels
3. Negative insider sentiment
4. Current price above analyst target

For existing holders, maintaining positions may be reasonable given the positive technical momentum. New investors should wait for either:

• A pullback closer to the $45 support level
• Improvement in fundamental metrics
• More positive insider sentiment

Based on the provided data and technical analysis, here's the price prediction for HGV stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

Current Market Position

• Current Price: $42.53 (as of Feb 26, 2025)
• Trading above both 50-day MA ($40.63) and 200-day MA ($39.72)
• RSI-14: 44.28 indicating neutral momentum
• MACD shows slight bullish divergence with MACD (0.14) above signal line (0.40)

Price Target Analysis The stock is expected to reach $45.39 by end of 2025 based on:

1. Fibonacci extension levels showing:

• R3 (Strong resistance): $45.39
• R2 (Moderate resistance): $44.03
• R1 (First resistance): $43.18
• Current pivot: $41.81

2. Technical indicators suggesting:

• Stochastic RSI (14) at 2.77 indicates oversold conditions
• Bollinger Bands show price trading at 26% of the range, suggesting room for upward movement
• Price is above key moving averages, confirming uptrend

Reason for Price Target The stock shows strong technical support with prices consolidating above major moving averages. The oversold stochastic RSI combined with positive MACD divergence suggests potential for upward movement. The Fibonacci extension levels provide clear resistance targets, with $45.39 being the most significant level for 2025.

The S1 support level for HGV Stock is $40.45 ,The R1 resistant level for HGV Stock is $43.18.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of HGV Stock was $42.53.

The target price for HGV Stock according to analyst rating is 45.20, with the highest price target at 51.00 and the lowest at 37.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on HGV Stock overall.

The market cap of HGV is $4.0B.

Based on the financial data and technical indicators, HGV appears fairly valued at current levels. The company's net income declined from $352M to $313M in FY2023, while gross margin significantly dropped from 25.64% to 13.70%, indicating operational challenges. Technical indicators show RSI at 44.28 suggesting neutral momentum, while the stock trades near its 200-day moving average of $39.72, indicating a balanced market view. The current price of $42.53 sits between Fibonacci support of $40.45 and resistance of $43.18, suggesting limited upside potential at these levels. The deteriorating profitability metrics combined with current technical positioning suggests the stock is appropriately priced for its current business performance.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. is a timeshare company. The Company is engaged in developing, marketing, selling, managing and operating timeshare resorts, timeshare plans and ancillary reservation services, primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The Company operates through two segments: Real estate sales and financing and Resort operations and club management. Real estate sales and financing market and sell vacation ownership interests (VOIs). It also sources VOIs through fee-for-service agreements with third-party developers. It provides consumer financing, which includes interest income generated from the origination of consumer loans to customers to finance their purchase of VOIs and servicing the loans. Resort operations and club management segment manage the clubs and earn activation fees, annual dues and transaction fees from member exchanges for other vacation products. Hilton Grand Vacations offers vacation experiences for guests and more than 700,000 club members.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here's a projection for HGV stock price in 2030:

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) stock is projected to reach approximately $85-90 by 2030, driven by its successful integration of Diamond and Bluegreen acquisitions which are expected to generate sustained earnings growth through synergies and steady sales growth. The company's strategic shift to high-credit-quality customers and improved sales force efficiency should support a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 12-13% from current levels.

The projection considers Morgan Stanley's recent bullish outlook on HGV with a $47 price target for the near term, suggesting strong fundamentals for continued growth. However, the company needs to successfully execute its sales force realignment and maintain stable FICO scores in its owner base to achieve this long-term target.

HGV has a total of 15000 employees.