AppLovin Faces 41% Decline in 2026, Yet Optimism Persists
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 16 2026
0mins
Should l Buy APP?
Source: Marketbeat
Apple's Stock Performance: Apple's stock has seen significant volatility, with a drop of nearly 20% following disappointing earnings and increased competition from Meta Platforms, despite a strong revenue growth of 66% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
Market Reactions and Concerns: The market reacted negatively to Apple's latest earnings report, leading to a sell-off, as investors expressed concerns over competition and the company's future growth potential, particularly in mobile game advertising.
Future Projections: Apple projects a revenue growth of 52% for the next quarter, with expectations of maintaining a high EBITDA margin of 84%, although analysts are seeking more substantial growth indicators.
Investment Outlook: Despite the current volatility, analysts suggest that Apple remains a strong investment opportunity, with a potential upside of 78% based on updated price targets, indicating confidence in the company's long-term recovery and profitability.
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Analyst Views on APP
Wall Street analysts forecast APP stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 387.840
Low
465.00
Averages
745.50
High
860.00
Current: 387.840
Low
465.00
Averages
745.50
High
860.00
About APP
AppLovin Corporation is a marketing platform. The Company provides end-to-end software and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for businesses to reach, monetize and grow their global audiences. Its advertising solutions include a comprehensive suite of tools including AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, Wurl and Axon Ads Manager. AppDiscovery is powered by AXON, its AI-powered advertising engine, and matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions at vast scale and at microsecond-level speeds. MAX is its monetization solution, utilizing an advanced in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher’s advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction, driving more competition, and higher returns for publishers. Adjust is its measurement and analytics marketing platform which provides marketers with the visibility, insights, and data needed to scale their apps marketing and drive more informed results. Wurl is its connected TV (CTV) platform.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Software Stocks: Values or Traps?
- ServiceNow Stock Performance: ServiceNow's shares have dropped 34% over the past year and 32% year-to-date, although analysts have raised earnings estimates three times in the last 60 days for 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the company.
- Salesforce Valuation Analysis: Salesforce's stock has decreased by 12% over the last five years and 29.5% year-to-date, with a forward P/E of 14.1, which is considered a value indicator, and earnings are expected to rise by 4.6% in fiscal 2027.
- Palantir Stock Dynamics: Palantir has surged 528% in the last five years but has seen a 17.7% decline year-to-date in 2026, with a forward P/E of 104.9 indicating it is still perceived as overvalued, despite expected earnings growth of 74.7% in 2026.
- Adobe Price Trends: Adobe's shares have fallen 49% over the past five years and 31% year-to-date, currently trading at a forward P/E of 10.3, with earnings expected to rise by 12.3% in 2026, highlighting its attractiveness in the current market environment.
See More
AppLovin Rated Outperform with $660 Target by Oppenheimer
- Rating Reaffirmed: On March 27, 2026, Oppenheimer reiterated its Outperform rating on AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) with a price target of $660, reflecting confidence in its future growth potential.
- Market Position: Despite recent unfavorable headlines, Piper Sandler confirmed AppLovin's dominant position in the mobile gaming sector during discussions with an advertising monetization expert, indicating the company's resilience.
- Analyst Sentiment: CNN reported that 84% of 32 analysts assigned a Buy rating to AppLovin, with an average one-year upside potential of 74.69%, showcasing optimistic market expectations for its performance.
- AI Platform Challenges: While AppLovin leads the industry, analysts noted significant skepticism surrounding its CloudX platform, citing challenges to widespread adoption and doubts about the practical application of AI in its products, which could hinder market expansion.
See More
Investment Opportunity Analysis for Nasdaq-100 Index
- Historical Return Potential: The Nasdaq-100 has achieved an average five-year return of 103% over the past two decades, with historical data suggesting that it could nearly double investors' money in the next five years, making it an attractive option for investors.
- AI-Driven Growth: The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in AI-related stocks, with top holdings including tech giants like Nvidia and Apple, which are expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI technologies, further enhancing market performance.
- Market Correction Timing: The Nasdaq Composite is currently in a market correction, down over 10% from its all-time high, and historical data indicates that such corrections have led to an average five-year return of 146%, presenting a favorable investment opportunity.
- Concentration Risk Warning: While the Invesco QQQ Trust has a reasonable expense ratio of 0.18%, its top ten holdings account for nearly 50% of its performance, prompting investors to carefully consider the concentration risk and potential price volatility.
See More
Nasdaq-100 Expected to Perform Well in Future
- Historical Returns: The Nasdaq-100 has achieved a 103% average five-year total return over the past two decades, indicating that investors could potentially double their money in the next five years, thus drawing increased investor interest.
- Market Correction Opportunity: The Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory last month, which historically has been viewed as a good time to invest; after 13 market corrections, the Nasdaq-100's five-year total returns averaged 146%, suggesting a favorable outlook.
- AI-Driven Growth: The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in AI-related stocks, with over 80% of its assets concentrated in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which are expected to perform well due to the rise of artificial intelligence, enhancing its investment appeal.
- Reasonable Expense Ratio: The Invesco QQQ Trust has an expense ratio of 0.18%, meaning shareholders pay $18 annually for every $10,000 invested; despite concentration risks, the current buying opportunity remains attractive for long-term investors.
See More
AppLovin's Fundamentals Strong Despite Stock Decline, Says Evercore ISI
- User Acquisition Insights: Evercore ISI's interviews with 10 user acquisition operators reveal that AppLovin is expected to increase its market share over the next 6-12 months, with 8 out of 10 respondents indicating budget expansion for APP, anticipating a share gain of 3-5 percentage points, highlighting the company's potential in user acquisition.
- Positive Product Changes: The analyst noted that product changes made late in Q4 are viewed positively, including adjustments to retargeting windows and successful creative clustering, indicating the company's ongoing commitment to product innovation.
- Budget Allocation Optimization: Among the 10 respondents, 5 highlighted that earlier product changes have driven improved budget allocation, particularly the shift from CPI to CPM campaign objectives, showcasing enhanced advertising spend efficiency.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Evercore ISI maintains an Outperform rating on AppLovin with a price target of $750, reflecting the analyst's confidence in the company's future growth prospects despite the current stock price decline.
See More
Underrated AI Companies Show Growth Potential Amid Stock Sell-Offs
- SoundHound AI Rapid Growth: SoundHound AI is projected to nearly double its revenue by 2025, nearing adjusted EBITDA profitability, indicating strong growth potential in AI voice technology, especially after acquiring Amelia, which enhanced its customer service platform capabilities.
- Significant Market Opportunities: Despite SoundHound's stock dropping nearly 40% this year, its substantial opportunities in the multi-industry customer service market could provide investors with a favorable entry point by leveraging AI voice technology and virtual agents.
- AppLovin's Strong Performance: AppLovin's revenue surged 66% last quarter, with gross margins increasing by 420 basis points to 88.9%, while reducing sales and marketing expenses by 21%, showcasing the success of its Axon-2 adtech platform.
- Future Growth Potential: AppLovin anticipates continued strong growth from its core mobile gaming customers and plans to attract more small and medium-sized advertising clients through a self-serve ad manager, while also expanding into e-commerce and other new areas to drive further growth.
See More
Analysis of Software Stocks: Values or Traps?
- ServiceNow Stock Performance: ServiceNow's shares have dropped 34% over the past year and 32% year-to-date, although analysts have raised earnings estimates three times in the last 60 days for 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the company.
- Salesforce Valuation Analysis: Salesforce's stock has decreased by 12% over the last five years and 29.5% year-to-date, with a forward P/E of 14.1, which is considered a value indicator, and earnings are expected to rise by 4.6% in fiscal 2027.
- Palantir Stock Dynamics: Palantir has surged 528% in the last five years but has seen a 17.7% decline year-to-date in 2026, with a forward P/E of 104.9 indicating it is still perceived as overvalued, despite expected earnings growth of 74.7% in 2026.
- Adobe Price Trends: Adobe's shares have fallen 49% over the past five years and 31% year-to-date, currently trading at a forward P/E of 10.3, with earnings expected to rise by 12.3% in 2026, highlighting its attractiveness in the current market environment.
See More
AppLovin Rated Outperform with $660 Target by Oppenheimer
- Rating Reaffirmed: On March 27, 2026, Oppenheimer reiterated its Outperform rating on AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) with a price target of $660, reflecting confidence in its future growth potential.
- Market Position: Despite recent unfavorable headlines, Piper Sandler confirmed AppLovin's dominant position in the mobile gaming sector during discussions with an advertising monetization expert, indicating the company's resilience.
- Analyst Sentiment: CNN reported that 84% of 32 analysts assigned a Buy rating to AppLovin, with an average one-year upside potential of 74.69%, showcasing optimistic market expectations for its performance.
- AI Platform Challenges: While AppLovin leads the industry, analysts noted significant skepticism surrounding its CloudX platform, citing challenges to widespread adoption and doubts about the practical application of AI in its products, which could hinder market expansion.
See More
Investment Opportunity Analysis for Nasdaq-100 Index
- Historical Return Potential: The Nasdaq-100 has achieved an average five-year return of 103% over the past two decades, with historical data suggesting that it could nearly double investors' money in the next five years, making it an attractive option for investors.
- AI-Driven Growth: The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in AI-related stocks, with top holdings including tech giants like Nvidia and Apple, which are expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI technologies, further enhancing market performance.
- Market Correction Timing: The Nasdaq Composite is currently in a market correction, down over 10% from its all-time high, and historical data indicates that such corrections have led to an average five-year return of 146%, presenting a favorable investment opportunity.
- Concentration Risk Warning: While the Invesco QQQ Trust has a reasonable expense ratio of 0.18%, its top ten holdings account for nearly 50% of its performance, prompting investors to carefully consider the concentration risk and potential price volatility.
See More
Nasdaq-100 Expected to Perform Well in Future
- Historical Returns: The Nasdaq-100 has achieved a 103% average five-year total return over the past two decades, indicating that investors could potentially double their money in the next five years, thus drawing increased investor interest.
- Market Correction Opportunity: The Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory last month, which historically has been viewed as a good time to invest; after 13 market corrections, the Nasdaq-100's five-year total returns averaged 146%, suggesting a favorable outlook.
- AI-Driven Growth: The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in AI-related stocks, with over 80% of its assets concentrated in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which are expected to perform well due to the rise of artificial intelligence, enhancing its investment appeal.
- Reasonable Expense Ratio: The Invesco QQQ Trust has an expense ratio of 0.18%, meaning shareholders pay $18 annually for every $10,000 invested; despite concentration risks, the current buying opportunity remains attractive for long-term investors.
See More
AppLovin's Fundamentals Strong Despite Stock Decline, Says Evercore ISI
- User Acquisition Insights: Evercore ISI's interviews with 10 user acquisition operators reveal that AppLovin is expected to increase its market share over the next 6-12 months, with 8 out of 10 respondents indicating budget expansion for APP, anticipating a share gain of 3-5 percentage points, highlighting the company's potential in user acquisition.
- Positive Product Changes: The analyst noted that product changes made late in Q4 are viewed positively, including adjustments to retargeting windows and successful creative clustering, indicating the company's ongoing commitment to product innovation.
- Budget Allocation Optimization: Among the 10 respondents, 5 highlighted that earlier product changes have driven improved budget allocation, particularly the shift from CPI to CPM campaign objectives, showcasing enhanced advertising spend efficiency.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Evercore ISI maintains an Outperform rating on AppLovin with a price target of $750, reflecting the analyst's confidence in the company's future growth prospects despite the current stock price decline.
See More
Underrated AI Companies Show Growth Potential Amid Stock Sell-Offs
- SoundHound AI Rapid Growth: SoundHound AI is projected to nearly double its revenue by 2025, nearing adjusted EBITDA profitability, indicating strong growth potential in AI voice technology, especially after acquiring Amelia, which enhanced its customer service platform capabilities.
- Significant Market Opportunities: Despite SoundHound's stock dropping nearly 40% this year, its substantial opportunities in the multi-industry customer service market could provide investors with a favorable entry point by leveraging AI voice technology and virtual agents.
- AppLovin's Strong Performance: AppLovin's revenue surged 66% last quarter, with gross margins increasing by 420 basis points to 88.9%, while reducing sales and marketing expenses by 21%, showcasing the success of its Axon-2 adtech platform.
- Future Growth Potential: AppLovin anticipates continued strong growth from its core mobile gaming customers and plans to attract more small and medium-sized advertising clients through a self-serve ad manager, while also expanding into e-commerce and other new areas to drive further growth.
See More
