Apple Expects 10%-12% Revenue Growth in 2026 Amid AI Bubble Concerns

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

AAPL-0.45%

MSFT-0.79%

AMZN-0.74%

Source: Yahoo Finance

Updated: 1h ago

0mins

Source: Yahoo Finance

Revenue Growth Expectation: Apple anticipates a 10%-12% revenue growth in Q1 2026, driven by strong iPhone sales during the holiday season, showcasing the company's sustained competitiveness in the market.
Impressive Performance: Apple achieved a record revenue of $416 billion in fiscal year 2025, with Q4 revenue hitting $102.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, indicating robust core product performance and a 15% rise in services revenue to $28.75 billion, further solidifying profit sources.
Outstanding Market Performance: Over the past six months, Apple's stock has surged approximately 33%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 11% increase, reflecting investor confidence in its future performance amidst volatility in AI stocks.
Service Business Growth: With a gross margin of 75%, Apple's services segment has become a crucial part of overall revenue, with 2025 service revenue surpassing sales from all non-iPhone products for the first time, demonstrating the company's success in diversifying its income streams.

AAPL

$271.86+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on AAPL

Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAPL is 289.17 USD with a low forecast of 225.00 USD and a high forecast of 345.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

35 Analyst Rating

21 Buy

12 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 273.080

Low

225.00

Averages

289.17

High

345.00

Current: 273.080

Low

225.00

Averages

289.17

High

345.00

Needham

Buy

maintain

$150

2025-12-22

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$150

2025-12-22

maintain

Buy

Reason

Needham keeps a Buy rating and $150 price target on Universal Display (OLED). The firm is also naming the stock its Top Pick for 2026 while adding the name to its Conviction List in place of Montrose Environmental (MEG). Third-party data assume slower growth for the OLED market in 2026, but those forecasts have not always aligned with Universal Display's growth rates, which also offers two main drivers in 2026-27, the analyst tells investors in a research note. First - there is new OLED capacity coming on stream in Korea and China for the emerging IT market as devices increasingly adopt OLED technology, and second - within the smartphone market, which accounts for the bulk of Universal Display revenue, the long-awaited form-factor change appears in sight, with Apple (AAPL) expected to launch several iPhones over the next year, including the first foldable iPhone, Needham added.

Jefferies

Edison Lee

Hold

maintain

2025-12-17

Reason

Jefferies

Edison Lee

Price Target

2025-12-17

maintain

Hold

Reason

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee raised the firm's price target on Apple to $283.36 from $246.99 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm, which raised its Q1 and FY26 iPhone unit estimates by 7% and 3%, respectively, and included a foldable phone as of FY27, believes Apple is highly resilient to memory cost hikes owing to its high average selling prices.

Morgan Stanley

NULL

Overweight

maintain

$305 -> $315

2025-12-17

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$305 -> $315

2025-12-17

maintain

NULL

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Apple (AAPL) to $315 from $305 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Among the IT Hardware group, the firm recommends being overweight cloud capex winners, product-cycle beneficiaries such as Apple, and unique assets, while it suggests being underweight stocks with elevated memory exposure - like Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) - and is "increasingly more cautious" on memory-exposed names as well, the analyst tells investors in a year-ahead note.

Goldman Sachs

James Schneider

Buy

initiated

$420

2025-12-15

Reason

Goldman Sachs

James Schneider

Price Target

$420

2025-12-15

initiated

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider initiated coverage of SiTime (SITM) with a Buy rating and $420 price target. SiTime is viewed as the leading provider of silicon-based precision timing solutions and the only scaled pure-play MEMS timing company positioned to benefit from the industry shift away from quartz, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Growth is expected to be driven by this transition, expanding opportunities at Apple (AAPL), and AI datacenter tailwinds, with consensus estimates underestimating earnings potential, as 2026-2027 EPS is projected to be about 20% above Street expectations, the firm adds.

About AAPL

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV and Apple Vision Pro.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.