Analyst Warns of Risks in Tesla-SpaceX Merger
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: stocktwits
- Merger Valuation Risk: Analyst Gary Black warns that if Tesla issues $1.5 trillion in equity to acquire SpaceX, the combined valuation could drop from $3 trillion to $2.25 trillion, implying a potential loss of $750 billion in equity value, representing a 25% downside risk for shareholders.
- Weak Market Reaction: Tesla's shares slipped over 1% in premarket trading on Monday, potentially setting up for a fourth consecutive day of losses, with Friday's close at $367.96 marking the lowest level in over six months.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As discussions of a Tesla-SpaceX merger intensify, retail sentiment for Tesla has shifted from 'bullish' to 'bearish', with a 44% surge in 24-hour message volume indicating growing market concerns about the merger's prospects.
- Potential Gains and Risks: Black suggests that about a quarter of combined profits could stem from space travel and satellite communications, which may raise concerns among institutional investors regarding Tesla's core electric vehicle business, potentially impacting their investment decisions.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 422.240
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 422.240
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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