Analysis of Rigetti Computing's Stock Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 25 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Fluctuation: Since going public via SPAC four years ago, Rigetti Computing's stock has dropped from an initial $9.75 to about $17, down from a record high of $56.34 last October, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Revenue Dependency: Although Rigetti's business model appears promising, it still generates most of its revenue from government and research contracts rather than sales of its quantum processing units (QPUs), which limits its profitability and market expansion potential.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Rigetti faces intense competition from newer quantum computing companies that utilize technologies not requiring cooling, potentially undermining Rigetti's market position, especially as its older electron-based systems encounter technological limitations.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While analysts project Rigetti's revenue to rise from $7.1 million to $110.8 million between 2025 and 2028, its market cap exceeds 50 times its projected 2028 sales, and it is expected to remain unprofitable, which diminishes investor confidence in its future.
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Analyst Views on RGTI
Wall Street analysts forecast RGTI stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 19.690
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
Current: 19.690
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
About RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a full-stack quantum computing company. The Company operates quantum computers over the cloud and serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. The Company’s quantum-classical infrastructure provides high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing. It has developed a multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems. Through the Company’s Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platform, its machines can be integrated into any public, private or hybrid cloud. It is also engaged in the sale of quantum processing units (QPUs) and custom computing components, and development contracts and other services. Its QPUs contain fabricated silicon-based chips featuring superconducting qubits. The Company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, an integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Government Invests in Quantum Computing Firms
- Government Investment Context: The U.S. government announced up to $100 million in equity investments in quantum computing firms, including D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing, marking an unconventional investment strategy aimed at enhancing national security and reducing reliance on foreign competitors during economic pressures.
- Rigetti's Development Challenges: Rigetti is set to receive $100 million for R&D, yet its superconducting quantum computing technology, while fast, significantly lags in accuracy compared to other techniques, leading to delays in its new system release and exclusion from DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.
- D-Wave's Technological Edge: D-Wave Quantum will also receive $100 million to focus on its 100,000-qubit annealing system and 10,000-qubit gate-model system, excelling in optimization problem-solving, but still needs to advance in traditional gate-based quantum computing.
- Diverse Investment Analysis: The investments span various quantum computing technologies, including superconducting, annealing, and neutral-atom methods, indicating a broad government bet on competing technologies rather than validation of individual stocks, suggesting that both D-Wave and Rigetti remain highly speculative investment choices.
See More
Government Investments in Quantum Computing Amidst Technical Challenges
- Government Support: The U.S. government announced equity investments of up to $100 million each in Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum to support their quantum computing technologies, marking a proactive governmental approach in the quantum sector, typically seen during economic distress.
- Significant Technical Challenges: Rigetti's superconducting quantum computing technology, while fast, achieved only 99.1% 2-qubit gate fidelity, falling short of the targeted 99.5%, leading to delays in the release of its new system, highlighting major accuracy issues facing the company.
- D-Wave's Progress: D-Wave Quantum will also receive $100 million to accelerate the development of its 100,000-qubit annealing system and 10,000-qubit gate-model system, showcasing its strength in optimization problems, yet it still needs breakthroughs in traditional gate-model quantum computing.
- Diverse Investment Landscape: The government's investments span various quantum computing technologies, including Rigetti's superconducting approach and D-Wave's dual-rail qubit architecture, indicating a broad bet on competing technologies rather than validation of individual stocks, suggesting a highly speculative market environment.
See More
Quantum Computing May Become Key Future Technology
- Optimistic Quantum Outlook: Bernstein analyst Mark Newman stated that quantum processors will work alongside CPUs and GPUs, indicating that quantum computing will play a crucial role in future computing systems, driving technological advancements.
- Market Opportunities Emerge: Stocks of Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion rose over 2% following Bernstein's optimistic forecast, reflecting market recognition of both companies' growth potential in the quantum computing sector.
- Funding Support and Tech Progress: Rigetti recently secured a non-binding agreement for up to $100 million in funding through the CHIPS Act, while its 108-qubit processor became widely available via Amazon's cloud services, enhancing its market competitiveness.
- International Expansion and Collaboration: Infleqtion quickly opened a quantum research and manufacturing center in Oxford, UK, after receiving $100 million in CHIPS Act funding, further solidifying its position within the rapidly growing quantum ecosystem.
See More
Promising Stocks in Quantum Computing Sector
- Quantum Computing Outlook: Bernstein's analyst team believes quantum computing will represent a significant step in computing, driving future technology profits through a tri-processor architecture (CPUs, GPUs, and QPUs), highlighting its strategic importance.
- Investment Opportunities: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Infleqtion (INFQ) are identified as having a more attractive risk-reward ratio, with current market share expectations of only 4% and 2% respectively, indicating substantial upside potential if they capture larger market opportunities.
- Rigetti's Growth Potential: Mizuho analysts noted that Rigetti has approximately $590 million in cash and equivalents, and its newly launched 9-qubit Novera QPU could drive technological advancements, with a price target of $33 implying nearly 60% upside from current levels.
- Infleqtion's Partnership Advantage: Infleqtion's collaboration with Nvidia is seen as a key validation of technology, with Citi and BTIG assigning price targets of $20 and $22 respectively, suggesting 37% and 51% upside potential, showcasing its dual advantages in quantum computing and artificial intelligence sectors.
See More
Quantum Stocks Plummet Following Quantinuum's Lackluster IPO Performance
- Quantinuum IPO Performance: Quantinuum's IPO debuted at $60 on Nasdaq, but shares fell 8% on the second day, raising concerns about its high valuation, which exceeded $15 billion after generating nearly $1.7 billion, reflecting investor caution in the quantum computing sector.
- Market Reaction: Following Quantinuum's debut, IonQ and D-Wave Quantum shares dropped 12%, while Rigetti Computing fell 12.5% and Quantum Computing declined by 9%, indicating significant pressure on quantum stocks and a bearish investor sentiment.
- Overall Market Impact: The Nasdaq index fell nearly 3%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.8%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.7%, suggesting that the decline in quantum stocks aligns with the broader market trend, influenced by negative investor sentiment.
- Tech Sector Performance: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 8%, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 3.5%, highlighting increasing pressure on the tech industry and diminishing investor confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Quantum Stocks Decline While Consumer Staples Rise
- Quantum Stocks Struggle: Quantinuum's debut on Nasdaq was lackluster, closing flat and subsequently dropping over 8% on Friday, falling below its IPO price of $60 per share, indicating market caution towards the quantum computing sector which may impact future funding and investor confidence.
- Consumer Staples Surge: Amid Friday's market sell-off, the consumer staples sector rose 2%, with companies like Colgate-Palmolive, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble gaining over 3%, reflecting investor preference for defensive stocks, which could lead to a shift in capital towards these stable industries.
- Strong Performance in Medical Devices: Cooper Companies reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share, exceeding the $1.10 consensus estimate, with revenue of $1.08 billion surpassing the $1.05 billion forecast, showcasing robust performance in the medical device sector that may attract more investor interest.
- Software Stocks Outlook Weakens: Docusign's outlook failed to impress, with shares slipping 6% as it projected second-quarter revenue between $865 million and $869 million, slightly below consensus, potentially affecting its future market performance and investor confidence.
See More
U.S. Government Invests in Quantum Computing Firms
- Government Investment Context: The U.S. government announced up to $100 million in equity investments in quantum computing firms, including D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing, marking an unconventional investment strategy aimed at enhancing national security and reducing reliance on foreign competitors during economic pressures.
- Rigetti's Development Challenges: Rigetti is set to receive $100 million for R&D, yet its superconducting quantum computing technology, while fast, significantly lags in accuracy compared to other techniques, leading to delays in its new system release and exclusion from DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.
- D-Wave's Technological Edge: D-Wave Quantum will also receive $100 million to focus on its 100,000-qubit annealing system and 10,000-qubit gate-model system, excelling in optimization problem-solving, but still needs to advance in traditional gate-based quantum computing.
- Diverse Investment Analysis: The investments span various quantum computing technologies, including superconducting, annealing, and neutral-atom methods, indicating a broad government bet on competing technologies rather than validation of individual stocks, suggesting that both D-Wave and Rigetti remain highly speculative investment choices.
See More
Government Investments in Quantum Computing Amidst Technical Challenges
- Government Support: The U.S. government announced equity investments of up to $100 million each in Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum to support their quantum computing technologies, marking a proactive governmental approach in the quantum sector, typically seen during economic distress.
- Significant Technical Challenges: Rigetti's superconducting quantum computing technology, while fast, achieved only 99.1% 2-qubit gate fidelity, falling short of the targeted 99.5%, leading to delays in the release of its new system, highlighting major accuracy issues facing the company.
- D-Wave's Progress: D-Wave Quantum will also receive $100 million to accelerate the development of its 100,000-qubit annealing system and 10,000-qubit gate-model system, showcasing its strength in optimization problems, yet it still needs breakthroughs in traditional gate-model quantum computing.
- Diverse Investment Landscape: The government's investments span various quantum computing technologies, including Rigetti's superconducting approach and D-Wave's dual-rail qubit architecture, indicating a broad bet on competing technologies rather than validation of individual stocks, suggesting a highly speculative market environment.
See More
Quantum Computing May Become Key Future Technology
- Optimistic Quantum Outlook: Bernstein analyst Mark Newman stated that quantum processors will work alongside CPUs and GPUs, indicating that quantum computing will play a crucial role in future computing systems, driving technological advancements.
- Market Opportunities Emerge: Stocks of Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion rose over 2% following Bernstein's optimistic forecast, reflecting market recognition of both companies' growth potential in the quantum computing sector.
- Funding Support and Tech Progress: Rigetti recently secured a non-binding agreement for up to $100 million in funding through the CHIPS Act, while its 108-qubit processor became widely available via Amazon's cloud services, enhancing its market competitiveness.
- International Expansion and Collaboration: Infleqtion quickly opened a quantum research and manufacturing center in Oxford, UK, after receiving $100 million in CHIPS Act funding, further solidifying its position within the rapidly growing quantum ecosystem.
See More
Promising Stocks in Quantum Computing Sector
- Quantum Computing Outlook: Bernstein's analyst team believes quantum computing will represent a significant step in computing, driving future technology profits through a tri-processor architecture (CPUs, GPUs, and QPUs), highlighting its strategic importance.
- Investment Opportunities: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Infleqtion (INFQ) are identified as having a more attractive risk-reward ratio, with current market share expectations of only 4% and 2% respectively, indicating substantial upside potential if they capture larger market opportunities.
- Rigetti's Growth Potential: Mizuho analysts noted that Rigetti has approximately $590 million in cash and equivalents, and its newly launched 9-qubit Novera QPU could drive technological advancements, with a price target of $33 implying nearly 60% upside from current levels.
- Infleqtion's Partnership Advantage: Infleqtion's collaboration with Nvidia is seen as a key validation of technology, with Citi and BTIG assigning price targets of $20 and $22 respectively, suggesting 37% and 51% upside potential, showcasing its dual advantages in quantum computing and artificial intelligence sectors.
See More
Quantum Stocks Plummet Following Quantinuum's Lackluster IPO Performance
- Quantinuum IPO Performance: Quantinuum's IPO debuted at $60 on Nasdaq, but shares fell 8% on the second day, raising concerns about its high valuation, which exceeded $15 billion after generating nearly $1.7 billion, reflecting investor caution in the quantum computing sector.
- Market Reaction: Following Quantinuum's debut, IonQ and D-Wave Quantum shares dropped 12%, while Rigetti Computing fell 12.5% and Quantum Computing declined by 9%, indicating significant pressure on quantum stocks and a bearish investor sentiment.
- Overall Market Impact: The Nasdaq index fell nearly 3%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.8%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.7%, suggesting that the decline in quantum stocks aligns with the broader market trend, influenced by negative investor sentiment.
- Tech Sector Performance: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 8%, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 3.5%, highlighting increasing pressure on the tech industry and diminishing investor confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Quantum Stocks Decline While Consumer Staples Rise
- Quantum Stocks Struggle: Quantinuum's debut on Nasdaq was lackluster, closing flat and subsequently dropping over 8% on Friday, falling below its IPO price of $60 per share, indicating market caution towards the quantum computing sector which may impact future funding and investor confidence.
- Consumer Staples Surge: Amid Friday's market sell-off, the consumer staples sector rose 2%, with companies like Colgate-Palmolive, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble gaining over 3%, reflecting investor preference for defensive stocks, which could lead to a shift in capital towards these stable industries.
- Strong Performance in Medical Devices: Cooper Companies reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share, exceeding the $1.10 consensus estimate, with revenue of $1.08 billion surpassing the $1.05 billion forecast, showcasing robust performance in the medical device sector that may attract more investor interest.
- Software Stocks Outlook Weakens: Docusign's outlook failed to impress, with shares slipping 6% as it projected second-quarter revenue between $865 million and $869 million, slightly below consensus, potentially affecting its future market performance and investor confidence.
See More
