Analysis of Retail Stocks' Recovery Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HD?
Source: Fool
- Home Depot's Strong Performance: Despite facing high inflation and interest rate pressures, Home Depot's stock has risen 18% over the past three years, with annual revenue exceeding $164 billion, indicating strong potential in the housing market recovery.
- Market Share Growth: Home Depot's partnership with Google Cloud to launch AI tools aims to assist consumers in planning remodeling projects, further enhancing its competitive edge and driving e-commerce growth.
- TJX's Resilience: As a leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, TJX reported net sales exceeding $60 billion last year, with comparable sales up 5%, demonstrating its adaptability in economic fluctuations.
- International Expansion Opportunities: TJX's dividend has grown approximately 13% over the past three years, and its low payout ratio of about 34% provides ample room for future growth in international markets.
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Analyst Views on HD
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 329.560
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 329.560
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement specialty retailer. The Company offers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products, in stores and online. It also provides various services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. The Company operates approximately 2,353 retail stores, over 800 branches and more than 325 distribution centers that directly fulfill customer orders across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. Its stores average approximately 105,000 square feet of enclosed space, with approximately 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. The Company serves two primary customer groups, including both do-it-yourself (DIY) and Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) customers and Professional Customers (Pros).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Home Depot Opens New Headquarters in Atlanta
- Headquarters Location: Home Depot's global headquarters is situated in Cobb County, Georgia, just outside Atlanta, at 2455 Paces Ferry Road, conveniently located near Interstate 285 for easy access by employees and clients.
- Facility Features: The headquarters comprises several buildings, with the main office known as the Store Support Center, covering 15,660 square feet and offering flexible workspaces and access to an outdoor patio, aimed at enhancing employee experience.
- Expansion Plans: In September 2025, Home Depot received a tax break for a $140 million investment in expanding its headquarters and two other corporate campuses, projected to be completed by 2030, addressing the underutilization of facilities post-pandemic.
- Child Care Facility: The company also plans to expand its child care facility and construct a new parking deck to meet employee needs, further improving employee benefits and work environment.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Independent Hardware Stores Struggle Against Giants
- Market Share Competition: According to the Numerator Home Improvement Tracker, Home Depot held 28% of the market share in 2025, Lowe's 17%, and Amazon 11%, collectively dominating 56% of sales, which has put immense pressure on smaller hardware stores.
- Store Closure Case: Do it Best Hardware in Chillicothe, Ohio, announced its permanent closure on April 10, 2026, after 49 years of operation, citing an inability to compete with giants like Lowe's, highlighting the survival challenges faced by small retailers.
- Economic Environment Impact: Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail noted that the housing market has remained sluggish since 2023, significantly reducing demand for home improvement projects, which further exacerbates the operational difficulties for smaller hardware stores.
- Historic Store Closures: Several hardware stores that have operated for over 50 years, including Great Lakes Ace Hardware and Harpeth True Value Home Center, closed in 2026, reflecting the overall contraction of the industry and the tough circumstances for small retailers.
See More
ETF Component Trading Dynamics Analysis
- Highest Volume Component: On Thursday, Exxon Mobil traded over 12.9 million shares, declining about 0.2%, indicating market caution that could impact its short-term performance.
- Microsoft's Slight Increase: Microsoft saw over 9.5 million shares traded, with a modest rise of about 0.1%, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term growth potential despite limited gains.
- Corning's Strong Performance: Corning's stock rose approximately 2.5%, making it the best-performing component of the day, suggesting strong market expectations for its product demand that could drive future earnings growth.
- Home Depot's Weakness: Home Depot's stock fell about 2.6%, lagging behind other components in the Bahl & Gaynor Income Growth ETF, potentially reflecting market concerns about its future sales growth.
See More
Indian Markets Rattle Amid Iran War Turmoil
- Foreign Capital Exodus: Amid the turmoil of the Iran war, Indian markets experienced a record foreign investor sell-off exceeding $12 billion in March, resulting in a more than 10% drop in the Nifty 50 index, highlighting significant concerns over future economic growth prospects.
- Diminished Growth Outlook: India's Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran warned that rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions pose considerable downside risks to the forecasted 7.0%-7.4% growth for FY 2027, with expectations of a significant widening of the trade deficit exacerbating fiscal pressures.
- Government Intervention: In response to economic strains, the Indian government implemented two key measures, including limiting banks' currency-hedging positions and cutting excise duties on petrol and diesel by 10 rupees per liter, which will significantly impact tax revenues and potentially hinder government spending capabilities.
- Weak Job Market: While India's consumption narrative continues to attract foreign investment, the lack of white-collar job creation undermines this story, with reports indicating that only a small percentage of graduates secure stable employment within a year of graduation, posing a long-term challenge to economic growth.
See More
The Home Depot Appoints New Chief Technology Officer
- Executive Appointment: The Home Depot has appointed Dr. Franziska Bell as Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, effective April 6, where she will lead the company's technology strategy, product management, and AI integration to enhance customer experience and streamline operations.
- Technical Background: Dr. Bell previously drove Ford's transformation towards AI as the Director of Data, AI, and Analytics, and has held executive roles at BP, Uber, and Toyota, bringing extensive technical and managerial expertise to her new role.
- Enhancing Customer Experience: CEO Ted Decker noted that Bell's technical expertise will help eliminate customer pain points in home improvement projects, creating a seamless shopping experience that boosts customer satisfaction and loyalty.
- Strategic Vision: Bell emphasized that the true power of technology lies in its unobtrusive support, and she looks forward to collaborating with the team to leverage AI and digital tools to assist customers in their home renovations, thereby enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market.
See More
Home Depot Opens New Headquarters in Atlanta
- Headquarters Location: Home Depot's global headquarters is situated in Cobb County, Georgia, just outside Atlanta, at 2455 Paces Ferry Road, conveniently located near Interstate 285 for easy access by employees and clients.
- Facility Features: The headquarters comprises several buildings, with the main office known as the Store Support Center, covering 15,660 square feet and offering flexible workspaces and access to an outdoor patio, aimed at enhancing employee experience.
- Expansion Plans: In September 2025, Home Depot received a tax break for a $140 million investment in expanding its headquarters and two other corporate campuses, projected to be completed by 2030, addressing the underutilization of facilities post-pandemic.
- Child Care Facility: The company also plans to expand its child care facility and construct a new parking deck to meet employee needs, further improving employee benefits and work environment.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Independent Hardware Stores Struggle Against Giants
- Market Share Competition: According to the Numerator Home Improvement Tracker, Home Depot held 28% of the market share in 2025, Lowe's 17%, and Amazon 11%, collectively dominating 56% of sales, which has put immense pressure on smaller hardware stores.
- Store Closure Case: Do it Best Hardware in Chillicothe, Ohio, announced its permanent closure on April 10, 2026, after 49 years of operation, citing an inability to compete with giants like Lowe's, highlighting the survival challenges faced by small retailers.
- Economic Environment Impact: Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail noted that the housing market has remained sluggish since 2023, significantly reducing demand for home improvement projects, which further exacerbates the operational difficulties for smaller hardware stores.
- Historic Store Closures: Several hardware stores that have operated for over 50 years, including Great Lakes Ace Hardware and Harpeth True Value Home Center, closed in 2026, reflecting the overall contraction of the industry and the tough circumstances for small retailers.
See More
ETF Component Trading Dynamics Analysis
- Highest Volume Component: On Thursday, Exxon Mobil traded over 12.9 million shares, declining about 0.2%, indicating market caution that could impact its short-term performance.
- Microsoft's Slight Increase: Microsoft saw over 9.5 million shares traded, with a modest rise of about 0.1%, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term growth potential despite limited gains.
- Corning's Strong Performance: Corning's stock rose approximately 2.5%, making it the best-performing component of the day, suggesting strong market expectations for its product demand that could drive future earnings growth.
- Home Depot's Weakness: Home Depot's stock fell about 2.6%, lagging behind other components in the Bahl & Gaynor Income Growth ETF, potentially reflecting market concerns about its future sales growth.
See More
Indian Markets Rattle Amid Iran War Turmoil
- Foreign Capital Exodus: Amid the turmoil of the Iran war, Indian markets experienced a record foreign investor sell-off exceeding $12 billion in March, resulting in a more than 10% drop in the Nifty 50 index, highlighting significant concerns over future economic growth prospects.
- Diminished Growth Outlook: India's Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran warned that rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions pose considerable downside risks to the forecasted 7.0%-7.4% growth for FY 2027, with expectations of a significant widening of the trade deficit exacerbating fiscal pressures.
- Government Intervention: In response to economic strains, the Indian government implemented two key measures, including limiting banks' currency-hedging positions and cutting excise duties on petrol and diesel by 10 rupees per liter, which will significantly impact tax revenues and potentially hinder government spending capabilities.
- Weak Job Market: While India's consumption narrative continues to attract foreign investment, the lack of white-collar job creation undermines this story, with reports indicating that only a small percentage of graduates secure stable employment within a year of graduation, posing a long-term challenge to economic growth.
See More
The Home Depot Appoints New Chief Technology Officer
- Executive Appointment: The Home Depot has appointed Dr. Franziska Bell as Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, effective April 6, where she will lead the company's technology strategy, product management, and AI integration to enhance customer experience and streamline operations.
- Technical Background: Dr. Bell previously drove Ford's transformation towards AI as the Director of Data, AI, and Analytics, and has held executive roles at BP, Uber, and Toyota, bringing extensive technical and managerial expertise to her new role.
- Enhancing Customer Experience: CEO Ted Decker noted that Bell's technical expertise will help eliminate customer pain points in home improvement projects, creating a seamless shopping experience that boosts customer satisfaction and loyalty.
- Strategic Vision: Bell emphasized that the true power of technology lies in its unobtrusive support, and she looks forward to collaborating with the team to leverage AI and digital tools to assist customers in their home renovations, thereby enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market.
See More
