Alliance Resource Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6d ago
0mins
Should l Buy ARLP?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Highlights: Alliance Resource Partners reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $535.5 million fell 9.3% year-over-year and missed market expectations, reflecting challenges in the coal market.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 coal sales volume is projected to be between 33.75 million and 35.25 million short tons, with Illinois Basin sales expected at 26.00 to 27.00 million short tons and Appalachia at 7.75 to 8.25 million short tons, showing cautious optimism about future market demand.
- Price and Cost Analysis: The expected coal sales price per ton for the Illinois Basin in 2026 is between $50.00 and $52.00, while Appalachia is projected at $66.00 to $71.00; despite rising sales prices, the adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is also increasing, which may impact overall profit margins.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million for 2026, demonstrating a commitment to future investments, even amid market volatility, while aiming to maintain operations and expand its business.
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Analyst Views on ARLP
Wall Street analysts forecast ARLP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARLP is 31.00 USD with a low forecast of 29.00 USD and a high forecast of 33.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 24.540
Low
29.00
Averages
31.00
High
33.00
Current: 24.540
Low
29.00
Averages
31.00
High
33.00
About ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. is a diversified energy company. It is engaged in the production and marketing of coal to domestic utilities, industrial users and international customers, as well as royalty income from oil & gas mineral interests located across the United States. Its segments include Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties and Coal Royalties. Illinois Basin Coal Operation includes the Gibson County Coal, LLC mining complex; the Warrior Coal, LLC mining complex; the River View Coal, LLC mining complex and the Hamilton County Coal, LLC mining complex. Appalachia Coal Operations include the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex and the MC Mining, LLC mining complex. The Oil & Gas Royalties include oil and gas mineral interests held by Alliance Minerals as well as its equity interests in AllDale III. Coal Royalties segment includes coal mineral reserves and resources owned or leased by Alliance Resource Properties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $191.1 million, a 54.1% increase year-over-year, with net income of $82.7 million translating to $0.64 per unit, reflecting the company's success in reducing operating costs and enhancing investment income.
- Sales and Revenue Dynamics: Total revenues were $535.5 million, showing a decline primarily due to lower coal sales and transportation revenues; however, record oil and gas royalty income partially offset this decrease, indicating resilience in the company's revenue streams.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Coal sales volumes for 2026 are projected between 33.75 million and 35.25 million tons, with expected increases in Illinois Basin and Tunnel Ridge volumes despite a significant decline at Mettiki, showcasing the company's positive market demand expectations.
- Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow: Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $280 million and $300 million, while Q4 free cash flow was $93.8 million, with a distribution coverage ratio of 1.29, demonstrating the company's robust financial health and investment capacity.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Highlights: Alliance Resource Partners reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $535.5 million fell 9.3% year-over-year and missed market expectations, reflecting challenges in the coal market.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 coal sales volume is projected to be between 33.75 million and 35.25 million short tons, with Illinois Basin sales expected at 26.00 to 27.00 million short tons and Appalachia at 7.75 to 8.25 million short tons, showing cautious optimism about future market demand.
- Price and Cost Analysis: The expected coal sales price per ton for the Illinois Basin in 2026 is between $50.00 and $52.00, while Appalachia is projected at $66.00 to $71.00; despite rising sales prices, the adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is also increasing, which may impact overall profit margins.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million for 2026, demonstrating a commitment to future investments, even amid market volatility, while aiming to maintain operations and expand its business.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 2nd
- Earnings Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 2nd before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $556.82 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, ARLP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating challenges in profitability amid the current coal cycle, which may impact investor confidence.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context: With the coal cycle gradually declining, ARLP's income model is under scrutiny, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company maintains its revenue and profit levels in this challenging environment.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Announces Cash Distribution
- Cash Distribution Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Board approved a cash distribution of $0.60 per unit for the 2025 Quarter, reflecting the company's ongoing cash flow stability and commitment to unitholders.
- Payment Schedule: The cash distribution will be paid on February 13, 2026, with a record date of February 6, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and reinforcing confidence in the company's financial health.
- Earnings Report Schedule: ARLP is set to release its financial results for the 2025 Quarter before market opens on February 2, 2026, followed by a conference call at 10:00 AM Eastern, enhancing transparency and investor engagement.
- Tax Compliance Notification: Concurrently, ARLP provided notice to brokers regarding the federal income tax withholding requirements for non-U.S. investors, mandating a withholding rate of the highest applicable rate plus 10%, ensuring compliance and clarity in tax obligations.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Set to Participate in Investor Conference
Panel Discussion Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. will have select management team members participate in a panel discussion at the AllianceBernstein Energy & Natural Resources Study Group in Houston on November 13, 2025, where they will present on the company's business.
Investor Presentation Availability: An investor presentation related to the panel discussion will be posted on ARLP's website in the "Investors" section prior to the event.
Company Overview: ARLP is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., providing energy to major utilities and industrial users, while also generating income from mineral interests in coal and oil & gas regions.
Future Energy Partnerships: The company is focused on becoming a reliable energy partner by exploring opportunities that support the growth of energy and related infrastructure.
See More
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates for Alliance Resource Partners, Masco, and Warrior Met Coal
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: On 11/7/25, Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), Masco Corp. (MAS), and Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) will trade ex-dividend, with respective dividends of $0.60, $0.31, and $0.08 scheduled for payment on 11/14/25 and 11/24/25.
Expected Price Adjustments: Following the ex-dividend date, ARLP shares are expected to drop by approximately 2.44%, MAS by 0.49%, and HCC by 0.12%, based on their recent stock prices.
Dividend Yield Estimates: The estimated annualized yields for the upcoming dividends are 9.75% for ARLP, 1.97% for MAS, and 0.49% for HCC, indicating varying levels of return for investors.
Current Stock Performance: As of Wednesday trading, shares of ARLP, MAS, and HCC have seen declines of about 1.3%, 1.1%, and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting market fluctuations.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $191.1 million, a 54.1% increase year-over-year, with net income of $82.7 million translating to $0.64 per unit, reflecting the company's success in reducing operating costs and enhancing investment income.
- Sales and Revenue Dynamics: Total revenues were $535.5 million, showing a decline primarily due to lower coal sales and transportation revenues; however, record oil and gas royalty income partially offset this decrease, indicating resilience in the company's revenue streams.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Coal sales volumes for 2026 are projected between 33.75 million and 35.25 million tons, with expected increases in Illinois Basin and Tunnel Ridge volumes despite a significant decline at Mettiki, showcasing the company's positive market demand expectations.
- Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow: Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $280 million and $300 million, while Q4 free cash flow was $93.8 million, with a distribution coverage ratio of 1.29, demonstrating the company's robust financial health and investment capacity.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Highlights: Alliance Resource Partners reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $535.5 million fell 9.3% year-over-year and missed market expectations, reflecting challenges in the coal market.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 coal sales volume is projected to be between 33.75 million and 35.25 million short tons, with Illinois Basin sales expected at 26.00 to 27.00 million short tons and Appalachia at 7.75 to 8.25 million short tons, showing cautious optimism about future market demand.
- Price and Cost Analysis: The expected coal sales price per ton for the Illinois Basin in 2026 is between $50.00 and $52.00, while Appalachia is projected at $66.00 to $71.00; despite rising sales prices, the adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is also increasing, which may impact overall profit margins.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million for 2026, demonstrating a commitment to future investments, even amid market volatility, while aiming to maintain operations and expand its business.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 2nd
- Earnings Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 2nd before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $556.82 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, ARLP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating challenges in profitability amid the current coal cycle, which may impact investor confidence.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context: With the coal cycle gradually declining, ARLP's income model is under scrutiny, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company maintains its revenue and profit levels in this challenging environment.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners Announces Cash Distribution
- Cash Distribution Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Board approved a cash distribution of $0.60 per unit for the 2025 Quarter, reflecting the company's ongoing cash flow stability and commitment to unitholders.
- Payment Schedule: The cash distribution will be paid on February 13, 2026, with a record date of February 6, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and reinforcing confidence in the company's financial health.
- Earnings Report Schedule: ARLP is set to release its financial results for the 2025 Quarter before market opens on February 2, 2026, followed by a conference call at 10:00 AM Eastern, enhancing transparency and investor engagement.
- Tax Compliance Notification: Concurrently, ARLP provided notice to brokers regarding the federal income tax withholding requirements for non-U.S. investors, mandating a withholding rate of the highest applicable rate plus 10%, ensuring compliance and clarity in tax obligations.
See More
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Set to Participate in Investor Conference
Panel Discussion Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. will have select management team members participate in a panel discussion at the AllianceBernstein Energy & Natural Resources Study Group in Houston on November 13, 2025, where they will present on the company's business.
Investor Presentation Availability: An investor presentation related to the panel discussion will be posted on ARLP's website in the "Investors" section prior to the event.
Company Overview: ARLP is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., providing energy to major utilities and industrial users, while also generating income from mineral interests in coal and oil & gas regions.
Future Energy Partnerships: The company is focused on becoming a reliable energy partner by exploring opportunities that support the growth of energy and related infrastructure.
See More
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates for Alliance Resource Partners, Masco, and Warrior Met Coal
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: On 11/7/25, Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), Masco Corp. (MAS), and Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) will trade ex-dividend, with respective dividends of $0.60, $0.31, and $0.08 scheduled for payment on 11/14/25 and 11/24/25.
Expected Price Adjustments: Following the ex-dividend date, ARLP shares are expected to drop by approximately 2.44%, MAS by 0.49%, and HCC by 0.12%, based on their recent stock prices.
Dividend Yield Estimates: The estimated annualized yields for the upcoming dividends are 9.75% for ARLP, 1.97% for MAS, and 0.49% for HCC, indicating varying levels of return for investors.
Current Stock Performance: As of Wednesday trading, shares of ARLP, MAS, and HCC have seen declines of about 1.3%, 1.1%, and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting market fluctuations.
See More
