Agency Business Reports $81.0 Million Revenue for Q4 2025
For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, the Agency Business generated revenues of $81.0 million, compared to $81.1 million for the third quarter of 2025. Gain on sales, including fee-based services, net on the Agency business was $20.9 million for the quarter, reflecting a margin of 1.36%, compared to $23.3 million and 1.15% for the third quarter of 2025. Income from mortgage servicing rights was $19.9 million for the quarter, reflecting a rate of 1.24% as a percentage of loan commitments, compared to $15.5 million and 0.78% for the third quarter of 2025.
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- Investor Caution: As of the end of March, short positions in small to mid-cap financial stocks have significantly increased, particularly for companies linked to housing, credit cycles, and transaction-driven businesses, indicating investor concerns regarding earnings visibility and funding conditions.
- High Short Ratios: For instance, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) has a short interest of 23.89%, while Better Home & Finance Holding Company (BETR) and DeFi Development (DFDV) stand at 21.50% and 21.20%, respectively, reflecting heightened market vigilance regarding these companies' profitability and interest rate sensitivity.
- Stable Banks: In contrast, lower short interest in regional banks and traditional lenders suggests a more optimistic investor outlook, as these firms typically benefit from stable deposit bases and less volatile revenue streams.
- Impact of Market Uncertainty: The fluctuations in short positions reveal investor sensitivity to financial market risks, particularly concerning interest rate movements and funding conditions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Transaction Overview: Arbor Realty Trust has successfully closed a $762.6 million collateralized loan obligation (CLO).
Purpose of the CLO: The CLO is aimed at securing financing for various real estate investments and obligations.
- Stock Movement: Arbor Realty Trust closed at $8.50, reflecting a 2.19% decline from the previous day, which underperformed the S&P 500's gain of 0.83%, indicating market concerns regarding its short-term performance.
- Earnings Forecast: The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings of $0.22 per share, a year-over-year decline of 21.43%, with revenue expected at $234 million, down 2.78% from the previous year, potentially impacting investor confidence negatively.
- Analyst Ratings: Arbor Realty Trust currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating a pessimistic outlook from analysts regarding its future profitability, with no changes in EPS estimates over the past month, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
- Valuation Insights: The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8.99, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 7.99; however, the REIT sector ranks 223 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 9%, suggesting overall poor industry performance.
- Short Selling Trends: As of early March, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) leads with a short interest of 24.46% among financial stocks with market caps under $2 billion, indicating investor caution towards credit-sensitive companies, which may negatively impact its stock performance.
- Comparative Short Interest: DeFi Development (DFDV) and Better Home & Finance Holding Company (BETR) follow closely with short interests of 23.62% and 22.21%, respectively, reflecting a lack of confidence in these firms, potentially leading to financing challenges and market volatility.
- Least Shorted Stocks: Among the least shorted financial stocks, Republic Bancorp (BRCAA) and First Bank (FRBA) have short interests of only 0.50% and 0.51%, suggesting stronger investor confidence, which may contribute to more stable stock performance.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Overall, while some small-cap financial stocks exhibit high short interest, the relatively low short interest in regional banks and credit-focused investment firms suggests steadier investor sentiment, potentially providing support for the market.
- Dividend Payment History: Arbor Realty Trust Inc's 6.25% Series E Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (ABR.PRE) showcases a stable dividend payment record, reflecting the company's robust capital management.
- Market Performance Comparison: In Wednesday trading, ABR.PRE shares fell approximately 0.7%, while common shares (ABR) rose about 5.8%, indicating a divergence in market reactions between preferred and common stocks, which may influence investors' asset allocation decisions.
- High-Yield Preferred Stock: The preferred stock's dividend yield has attracted investor attention, ranking among the 50 highest-yielding preferreds in the market, indicating its investment appeal in the current interest rate environment.
- Investor Perspectives: Although the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, they provide investors with a deeper understanding of Arbor Realty Trust's dividend policy, aiding in more informed investment decisions.
- Insider Buying Ratio: The Kingsbarn Dividend Opportunity ETF (DVDN) shows that 18.0% of its weighted holdings have experienced insider buying in the past six months, indicating management's confidence in future growth, which may attract more investor interest in the ETF.
- Arbor Realty Trust Activity: Arbor Realty Trust Inc (ABR), making up 7.24% of DVDN, has seen 4 directors and officers purchase shares in the past six months, reflecting optimism among insiders about the company's future performance, potentially boosting market confidence in the stock.
- Dynex Capital Purchases: Dynex Capital Inc (DX), the fifth largest holding in DVDN, has $185,144 worth of shares held in the ETF, representing approximately 6.05% of total assets, with 2 directors and officers recently filing Form 4s, indicating insider optimism that could influence the stock's price trajectory.
- ETF Investment Strategy: The increase in insider buying activity within the Kingsbarn Dividend Opportunity ETF's portfolio may enhance its overall investment appeal, especially in the current market environment where investors are likely to favor stocks that insiders are optimistic about.






