Tilray stock rises on optimism from regulatory changes
Tilray Brands Inc. saw a price increase of 4.38%, reaching a 20-day high, amid positive market conditions with the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 both up slightly.
This surge is attributed to President Trump's consideration of loosening marijuana regulations, which has sparked optimism in the cannabis industry. The potential reclassification of marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug could significantly enhance research opportunities and attract institutional investments, despite the stock's ongoing profitability challenges since 2018.
The implications of these regulatory changes could lead to a transformative period for Tilray and the broader cannabis market, as increased demand and reduced tax burdens may open new avenues for growth and investment.
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- Market Expansion Opportunity: Tilray Brands has signed a multi-year licensing agreement with Danish brewing giant Carlsberg, effective January 1, 2027, allowing Tilray to brew and distribute Carlsberg and several of its brands in the U.S., which is expected to deliver immediate scale and revenue.
- Strategic Partnership Benefits: The deal includes an initial five-year term with an option to renew for another five years if performance targets are met, enabling Tilray to leverage its brewing facilities and sales teams to strengthen distributor relationships and broaden national chain offerings, enhancing its position in the U.S. beverage market.
- Positive Stock Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Tilray's stock traded over 4% higher by Wednesday mid-morning, indicating a positive market response to the partnership, despite a decline of over 12% in the stock price over the past 12 months.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment around Tilray shifted from 'bearish' to 'bullish' within 24 hours, with message volume increasing from 'low' to 'high', reflecting optimistic expectations regarding the partnership.
- Exclusive Partnership: Tilray Brands has entered into a multi-year licensing agreement with Carlsberg Group, allowing Tilray to produce, market, and distribute several Carlsberg-branded beers in the U.S., thereby enhancing its position in the beverage market.
- Market Expansion Plan: Under the agreement, Tilray will produce and distribute Carlsberg, Carlsberg Elephant, 1664, and Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc beers in the U.S. starting January 1, 2027, which is expected to boost Carlsberg's market share in the U.S., the second-largest beer market globally.
- Strategic Growth Objectives: Tilray Beverages' Chief Growth Officer, Prinz Pinakatt, stated that Carlsberg's portfolio aligns well with Tilray's expanding platform, indicating Tilray's capability to brew at scale and effectively commercialize, thus supporting Carlsberg's growth objectives.
- Market Performance Analysis: Tilray shares rose 0.40% to $7.54 during Wednesday's premarket trading, although the stock remains below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.
- Exclusive Licensing Agreement: Tilray Brands has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Carlsberg Group, effective January 1, 2027, granting the rights to produce, market, and distribute Carlsberg-branded beers in the U.S., marking a strategic expansion into the beer market.
- Market Share Enhancement: The initial five-year term of the agreement includes an automatic renewal for another five years based on performance criteria, with Tilray leveraging its brewing facilities and marketing team to boost Carlsberg's market share in the U.S., the world's second-largest beer market.
- Strategic Synergy: Tilray's Chief Growth Officer noted that Carlsberg's portfolio aligns well with Tilray Beverages' expanding platform, indicating that the collaboration is expected to create significant long-term value and strengthen Tilray's position in the beverage industry.
- International Expansion Outlook: With accelerated international expansion, Tilray anticipates a global medical cannabis revenue run rate of $150 million by 2026, showcasing the company's positive outlook on diversifying its business and enhancing competitiveness in new markets.
- Exclusive Licensing Agreement: Tilray Brands has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Carlsberg Group, granting Tilray the rights to produce, market, and distribute Carlsberg beers starting January 1, 2027, which is expected to significantly enhance Tilray's market share and revenue in the U.S.
- Market Expansion Potential: By leveraging Tilray's brewing facilities and sales team, Carlsberg's globally recognized brands are anticipated to drive volume growth in the U.S., the world's second-largest beer market, further solidifying Tilray's market leadership.
- Cost Efficiency Improvement: The agreement will enable Tilray to optimize its brewing, sourcing, and logistics infrastructure, thereby enhancing asset utilization, strengthening supply chain resilience, and expanding margin contributions, which is expected to positively impact the company's overall financial performance.
- Long-Term Growth Strategy: Tilray's CEO stated that this partnership not only combines the strengths of both companies but also aims to expand Carlsberg's presence in the U.S. market, driving long-term growth and reflecting Tilray's strategic goal of partnering with top-tier brands.
- Analyst Coverage Initiation: Canaccord analyst Kenric Tyghe initiated coverage on Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) on January 27, 2026, with a C$13 price target and a Hold rating, indicating that despite legislative hurdles, the Canadian cannabis industry continues to set the standard for legal cannabis commerce globally.
- Market Challenges: Although Tilray is ranked as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the US and the largest cannabis company in Canada by revenue, Canaccord's Hold rating reflects challenges in the beer market, highlighting vulnerabilities in its diversified business model.
- Future Outlook: Following Tilray's second-quarter results, Roth Capital maintained a Neutral rating and lowered its price target from $20 to $10, citing signals of growing momentum from CC Pharma's inflection, Canadian adult-use results, and foreign sales.
- Legislative Risks: Analysts noted that Tilray's vulnerability to intoxicating hemp products could lead to a prohibition on November 13, 2026, if not addressed, posing significant risks to the company's future.
- Market Size Projection: The global functional food and beverage market is projected to reach approximately $438 billion by 2026, expanding at an annual rate of 10.65%, indicating a significant consumer shift away from conventional delivery formats.
- New Product Launch: Doseology Sciences recently initiated pilot production of caffeine-based energy pouches in January 2026, marking the Feed That Brain brand's entry into the rapidly growing oral pouch category, which is expected to attract demand for portable alternatives.
- Strategic Acquisition: Doseology Sciences acquired the Feed That Brain brand for $400,000 in August 2025, fully paid through stock issuance, aiming to leverage its strengths in functional product design to drive new product commercialization.
- Market Trend Support: The global energy drinks market is expected to grow from $79.4 billion in 2024 to $125.1 billion by 2030, reflecting rising consumer demand for alternative caffeine delivery methods, which further supports Doseology's market strategy.







