Rivian Faces Challenges Amid EV Market Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 23 2024
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: Business Insider
Rivian Automotive Inc. shares fell as the company hit a 20-day low, reflecting broader challenges in the electric vehicle market.
The recent report highlights Rivian's focus on the high-end EV market, but with a gross margin of -159.38%, the company is struggling with profitability. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming R2 model launch in 2026 raises concerns about consumer demand, which could impact Rivian's long-term business model. Investors are advised to monitor sales performance closely.
As Rivian navigates these challenges, the market's cautious sentiment towards EV investments, coupled with significant write-downs expected for U.S. automakers, underscores the risks associated with the electric vehicle sector.
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Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 17.730
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 17.730
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rivian's R2 Electric Vehicle Launch Signals Positive Outlook
- R2 Fleet Launch: Rivian is set to deliver its R2 electric vehicle fleet in Q2 2026, starting at $45,000, which is a significant reduction from the $75,000-plus price of its other models, transitioning the brand from luxury to mass market and testing consumer appetite for electric SUVs.
- Significant Delivery Increase: In 2025, Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles, with projections for 2026 deliveries to reach between 62,000 and 67,000, indicating that the R2 fleet is expected to drive substantial sales growth despite a general slowdown in electric vehicle sales.
- Strengthened Financial Position with Volkswagen: Rivian's partnership with Volkswagen has bolstered its financials, achieving $576 million in gross profit from software and services in 2025, leading to an overall gross profit of $144 million, although the automotive segment still reported a loss of $432 million, significantly down from a $1.2 billion loss in 2024.
- Market Volatility and Execution Risks: As of February 13, Rivian's stock has dropped over 10% year-to-date and remains volatile with a beta of 1.77; despite execution risks due to supply chain issues, CEO Scaringe noted that the company has learned to navigate these challenges, and if the R2 fleet meets expectations, clearer paths lie ahead for Rivian.
See More
Rivian Projects Significant Delivery Increase in 2026
- Delivery Projections: Rivian anticipates vehicle deliveries will reach between 62,000 and 67,000 in 2026, a significant increase from 42,247 in 2025, indicating strong sales potential following the launch of its new R2 electric vehicle lineup.
- Profitability Improvement: In 2025, Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million through its joint venture with Volkswagen, despite an automotive segment loss of $432 million, which is a substantial reduction from the $1.2 billion loss in 2024, reflecting progress in profitability.
- Market Position Shift: The R2 fleet starts at $45,000, a considerable drop from over $75,000 for other models, transitioning Rivian from a luxury brand to the mass market, thereby testing consumer appetite for electric SUVs.
- Supply Chain Challenges: While Rivian prepares for the R2 launch, CEO Scaringe highlighted ongoing supply chain issues as execution risks; however, the company has gained valuable experience in navigating these challenges, suggesting a positive outlook ahead.
See More
Tesla Faces Union Lawsuit and Safety Concerns
- Union Legal Battle Escalates: The German metalworkers' union IG Metall has filed a criminal defamation complaint against the manager of Tesla's Berlin factory, accusing him of spreading false claims related to a works-council meeting, potentially increasing legal risks for Tesla's operations in Europe.
- Robotaxi Safety Record Deteriorates: New reports in the U.S. indicate that Tesla's Robotaxi fleet experienced five additional crashes in January 2026, bringing the total to 14, with an accident frequency of one crash every 57,000 miles, significantly worse than the rate Tesla claims for human drivers, which could undermine consumer confidence.
- Brand Strategy Under Scrutiny: Investor Ross Gerber criticized Tesla's brand image as having turned
See More
Tesla's Brand Value Significantly Declines Amid Leadership Shift
- Brand Value Decline: Investor Ross Gerber stated that Tesla's brand value has deteriorated to a negative level, indicating a significant impact on brand image as CEO Elon Musk pivots towards autonomy and robotics, which may lead to decreased investor confidence.
- Investor Concerns: Multiple investors, including ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, have expressed worries about the decline in Tesla's brand image, attributing the negative impact to Musk's political ventures, which could affect future sales and market share.
- Rivian's Rise: Gerber hailed Rivian as the leader in U.S. EVs, with its upcoming R2 Crossover SUV expected to be priced around $45,000 for the base model, highlighting the growing attention on emerging EV brands that may pose competitive pressure on Tesla.
- Cybercab Production Plans: Tesla's Cybercab is set to begin production in April, with Musk confirming a radical change in its manufacturing process, indicating the company's ongoing innovation and adaptability in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Morgan Stanley Reshuffles EV Portfolio Amid Market Volatility
- Nio Stake Reduction: Morgan Stanley cut its Nio stake by approximately 6% in Q4, ending with about 15.3 million shares valued near $75 million, reflecting a cautious approach amid market volatility following new SUV launches.
- Tesla Continued Trim: The firm reduced its Tesla holdings for the third consecutive quarter, finishing with roughly 35.8 million shares, the lowest since 2023, despite maintaining a value exceeding $14 billion, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Rivian Stake Increase: Morgan Stanley boosted its Rivian stake by nearly 47% in Q4, raising holdings to about 12.2 million shares, signaling renewed confidence ahead of the R2 mid-size SUV launch and a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on social media showed Nio as ‘bearish’, Tesla as ‘bullish’, while Rivian garnered ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment, indicating investor optimism about its future performance amidst changing market dynamics.
See More
Market Sentiment Declines Further as Fear Index Rises
- Inflation Data Decline: The annual inflation rate in the U.S. dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% in January, falling short of the 2.5% forecast, marking the lowest level since May 2025, indicating potential economic slowdown that could impact consumer spending.
- Core Inflation Eases: Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, suggesting reduced price pressures that may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: Despite gains in utilities, real estate, and materials sectors on Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.4%, the Dow declined by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite recorded a weekly loss of 2.1%, reflecting fragile market sentiment.
- Fear & Greed Index: The CNN Fear & Greed Index currently reads 36.3, up from 35.8, remaining in the “Fear” zone, indicating cautious investor sentiment that could lead to further market volatility.
See More
Rivian's R2 Electric Vehicle Launch Signals Positive Outlook
- R2 Fleet Launch: Rivian is set to deliver its R2 electric vehicle fleet in Q2 2026, starting at $45,000, which is a significant reduction from the $75,000-plus price of its other models, transitioning the brand from luxury to mass market and testing consumer appetite for electric SUVs.
- Significant Delivery Increase: In 2025, Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles, with projections for 2026 deliveries to reach between 62,000 and 67,000, indicating that the R2 fleet is expected to drive substantial sales growth despite a general slowdown in electric vehicle sales.
- Strengthened Financial Position with Volkswagen: Rivian's partnership with Volkswagen has bolstered its financials, achieving $576 million in gross profit from software and services in 2025, leading to an overall gross profit of $144 million, although the automotive segment still reported a loss of $432 million, significantly down from a $1.2 billion loss in 2024.
- Market Volatility and Execution Risks: As of February 13, Rivian's stock has dropped over 10% year-to-date and remains volatile with a beta of 1.77; despite execution risks due to supply chain issues, CEO Scaringe noted that the company has learned to navigate these challenges, and if the R2 fleet meets expectations, clearer paths lie ahead for Rivian.
See More
Rivian Projects Significant Delivery Increase in 2026
- Delivery Projections: Rivian anticipates vehicle deliveries will reach between 62,000 and 67,000 in 2026, a significant increase from 42,247 in 2025, indicating strong sales potential following the launch of its new R2 electric vehicle lineup.
- Profitability Improvement: In 2025, Rivian achieved a gross profit of $144 million through its joint venture with Volkswagen, despite an automotive segment loss of $432 million, which is a substantial reduction from the $1.2 billion loss in 2024, reflecting progress in profitability.
- Market Position Shift: The R2 fleet starts at $45,000, a considerable drop from over $75,000 for other models, transitioning Rivian from a luxury brand to the mass market, thereby testing consumer appetite for electric SUVs.
- Supply Chain Challenges: While Rivian prepares for the R2 launch, CEO Scaringe highlighted ongoing supply chain issues as execution risks; however, the company has gained valuable experience in navigating these challenges, suggesting a positive outlook ahead.
See More
Tesla Faces Union Lawsuit and Safety Concerns
- Union Legal Battle Escalates: The German metalworkers' union IG Metall has filed a criminal defamation complaint against the manager of Tesla's Berlin factory, accusing him of spreading false claims related to a works-council meeting, potentially increasing legal risks for Tesla's operations in Europe.
- Robotaxi Safety Record Deteriorates: New reports in the U.S. indicate that Tesla's Robotaxi fleet experienced five additional crashes in January 2026, bringing the total to 14, with an accident frequency of one crash every 57,000 miles, significantly worse than the rate Tesla claims for human drivers, which could undermine consumer confidence.
- Brand Strategy Under Scrutiny: Investor Ross Gerber criticized Tesla's brand image as having turned
See More
Tesla's Brand Value Significantly Declines Amid Leadership Shift
- Brand Value Decline: Investor Ross Gerber stated that Tesla's brand value has deteriorated to a negative level, indicating a significant impact on brand image as CEO Elon Musk pivots towards autonomy and robotics, which may lead to decreased investor confidence.
- Investor Concerns: Multiple investors, including ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, have expressed worries about the decline in Tesla's brand image, attributing the negative impact to Musk's political ventures, which could affect future sales and market share.
- Rivian's Rise: Gerber hailed Rivian as the leader in U.S. EVs, with its upcoming R2 Crossover SUV expected to be priced around $45,000 for the base model, highlighting the growing attention on emerging EV brands that may pose competitive pressure on Tesla.
- Cybercab Production Plans: Tesla's Cybercab is set to begin production in April, with Musk confirming a radical change in its manufacturing process, indicating the company's ongoing innovation and adaptability in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Morgan Stanley Reshuffles EV Portfolio Amid Market Volatility
- Nio Stake Reduction: Morgan Stanley cut its Nio stake by approximately 6% in Q4, ending with about 15.3 million shares valued near $75 million, reflecting a cautious approach amid market volatility following new SUV launches.
- Tesla Continued Trim: The firm reduced its Tesla holdings for the third consecutive quarter, finishing with roughly 35.8 million shares, the lowest since 2023, despite maintaining a value exceeding $14 billion, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Rivian Stake Increase: Morgan Stanley boosted its Rivian stake by nearly 47% in Q4, raising holdings to about 12.2 million shares, signaling renewed confidence ahead of the R2 mid-size SUV launch and a strategic shift in investment focus.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on social media showed Nio as ‘bearish’, Tesla as ‘bullish’, while Rivian garnered ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment, indicating investor optimism about its future performance amidst changing market dynamics.
See More
Market Sentiment Declines Further as Fear Index Rises
- Inflation Data Decline: The annual inflation rate in the U.S. dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% in January, falling short of the 2.5% forecast, marking the lowest level since May 2025, indicating potential economic slowdown that could impact consumer spending.
- Core Inflation Eases: Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, suggesting reduced price pressures that may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: Despite gains in utilities, real estate, and materials sectors on Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.4%, the Dow declined by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite recorded a weekly loss of 2.1%, reflecting fragile market sentiment.
- Fear & Greed Index: The CNN Fear & Greed Index currently reads 36.3, up from 35.8, remaining in the “Fear” zone, indicating cautious investor sentiment that could lead to further market volatility.
See More
