Okta's RPO Growth Amid Software Market Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 05 2024
0mins
Should l Buy OKTA?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Okta Inc. experienced a price drop of 6.14% as it hit a 5-day low, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the software sector.
Despite the overall market sentiment showing mixed signals, with the S&P 500 slightly up, Okta's recent report indicated a 17% year-over-year increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO) to nearly $4.3 billion in Q3. This growth highlights the rising demand for cybersecurity solutions, as the company adapts its services using AI and machine learning to enhance identity verification. However, the broader software market remains under pressure, leading to a sector rotation that impacts Okta's stock performance negatively.
Investors are closely monitoring Okta's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid a challenging market environment. The company's focus on leveraging AI for improved security solutions positions it well for future opportunities, but current market conditions may continue to pose challenges.
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Analyst Views on OKTA
Wall Street analysts forecast OKTA stock price to rise
31 Analyst Rating
22 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 82.930
Low
75.00
Averages
114.03
High
145.00
Current: 82.930
Low
75.00
Averages
114.03
High
145.00
About OKTA
Okta, Inc. is an independent identity partner. The Company’s Okta Platform and Auth () Platform enable its customers to securely connect the right people to the right technologies and services at the right time. It offers independent and neutral cloud-based identity solutions that allow customers to integrate with nearly any application, service or cloud that they choose through its platforms. Organizations use the Company’s Identity Platform to collaborate with their partners, and to provide their customers with secure experiences in the cloud and via mobile devices. Developers leverage the Workforce Identity Cloud and Customer Identity Cloud, powered by Auth (), to securely and efficiently embed identity into the software they build, allowing them to innovate and focus on their core missions. Its Okta Platform enables its customers to automate and secure access across their ecosystem of employees, contractors and partners, increasing collaboration across their workforces.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Backlog: The company reported a record backlog of $51.2 billion in Q4 2023, indicating robust future demand, particularly bolstered by a power supply agreement with American Intelligence and Power, which will drive future growth.
- Okta's Market Leadership: As a leader in cybersecurity, Okta focuses on zero-trust identity and access management, forecasting revenue of around $2.9 billion in 2026, an 11% increase, demonstrating resilience in a competitive landscape.
- AI Security Solution Innovation: Okta is leveraging AI to enhance its Identity Threat Protection capabilities, detecting behavioral shifts to prevent bot-driven fraud, and despite competition from Microsoft and CrowdStrike, its leadership in AI security continues to strengthen.
See More
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- Investor Concerns: Investors are increasingly worried that advanced AI agents may render traditional user interfaces and subscription models obsolete, raising questions about the future of the software industry.
- Technological Shift: Anthropic highlighted in a blog post that Sonnet 4.6 can use computers like a human, changing the way users interact with traditional software and reducing the need for bespoke connectors, thereby enhancing automation capabilities.
- Industry Impact: With the launch of Sonnet 4.6, the performance threshold for traditional software tasks has been lowered, allowing economically valuable tasks that previously required Opus-class models to be accomplished with Sonnet 4.6, intensifying market competition.
See More
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- Market Rebound Expectations: JPMorgan believes that while the market's outlook on AI disruption in the software sector is overly pessimistic, certain software companies are demonstrating greater resilience, potentially providing rebound opportunities for investors, especially given the current overly bearish sentiment.
- Extreme Price Volatility: Analysts point out that the extreme price action in software stocks has led to unrealistic expectations regarding AI disruption, which may prompt a rotation back into higher-quality companies, thereby improving portfolio performance.
- AI Profitability Gains: Companies in the S&P 500 that have adopted AI have seen net margins expand by approximately 2 to 3 percentage points more than their peers, indicating that AI technology is already delivering productivity gains and reflecting that corporate adoption is enhancing profitability.
- ETF Performance Decline: The State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (NYSE:XSW) is down 20.58% year-to-date, illustrating the overall pessimistic sentiment towards the software sector, despite some companies potentially benefiting from AI infrastructure demand.
See More
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- Current Software Market: Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 and the S&P 500 gaining at least 16% in six of the last seven years, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is nearly 28% below its all-time high, indicating that software stocks are in a bear market, presenting opportunities for value investors.
- Salesforce Growth Potential: Salesforce's Agentforce AI platform generated over $500 million in annual recurring revenue in Q3, up 330% year-over-year, and despite AI competition concerns, its leadership in the CRM market and strategic acquisition capabilities sustain high growth, with a forward P/E ratio of just 14.8, representing a 52% discount to its historical average.
- Adobe's Performance Recovery: Adobe's Digital Media segment achieved $19.2 billion in annual recurring revenue for FY 2025, an 11.5% increase, and despite fears surrounding generative AI, its strong cash flow and share buyback program (30.8 million shares in FY 2025) indicate financial health, with a forward P/E of 10.1, 61% below its historical average.
- Okta's Rising Security Demand: Okta's RPO increased 17% year-over-year to nearly $4.3 billion in Q3, as the shift of enterprise data to the cloud boosts cybersecurity demand; its AI-driven platform provides identity authentication and application authorization, and while facing AI competition, its forward P/E of 24 shows relative attractiveness.
See More
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- Current Software Market Status: Despite the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new highs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has plunged 32% from its all-time high, indicating a bearish trend in software stocks that investors need to navigate cautiously.
- Salesforce's Growth Potential: Salesforce's Agentforce AI platform generated over $500 million in annual recurring revenue in Q3, up 330% year-over-year, and despite AI threats, the company maintains market leadership through strategic acquisitions and high-margin growth.
- Adobe's Financial Performance: Adobe achieved an 11% sales growth in fiscal 2025, with its Digital Media segment's annual recurring revenue reaching $19.2 billion; despite AI competition, Adobe's buyback of 30.8 million shares enhances earnings per share, showcasing strong cash flow.
- Okta's Market Demand: Okta's RPO increased by 17% year-over-year to nearly $4.3 billion in Q3, and as cybersecurity needs rise, the company leverages AI and machine learning to enhance identity verification services, demonstrating robust market adaptability.
See More
Microsoft and 18 Other Software Firms Poised for Resilience
Market Impact: The software sector has experienced a $2 trillion loss due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence technology.
Investment Perspective: Analysts at J.P. Morgan view this downturn as a buying opportunity and have identified several AI-resistant companies, including Microsoft and CrowdStrike.
See More
