MGM Resorts International's stock fell by 3.02% and hit a 20-day low amid mixed market performance, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.10% and the S&P 500 down 0.07%.
The decline is attributed to MGM China's licensing fee doubling from 1.75% to 3.5%, which is expected to significantly impact profitability and has led to a severe market reaction, erasing approximately $1.3 billion in market value. This fee increase represents a substantial burden on projected EBITDA, raising concerns among investors about the company's long-term valuation and profitability outlook.
The implications of this fee hike could lead to a cautious investor sentiment, as the increased costs may hinder MGM's ability to recover in the short term, despite previous gains in gaming tables. Investors are likely to remain vigilant regarding the company's financial health and future growth prospects.
Wall Street analysts forecast MGM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGM is 40.31 USD with a low forecast of 29.00 USD and a high forecast of 56.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MGM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGM is 40.31 USD with a low forecast of 29.00 USD and a high forecast of 56.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 33.480
Low
29.00
Averages
40.31
High
56.00
Current: 33.480
Low
29.00
Averages
40.31
High
56.00
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Underweight
downgrade
$40 -> $33
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$40 -> $33
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Equal Weight -> Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded MGM Resorts to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $33, down from $40. After the recent rally, the firm downgraded several stocks and takes a more balanced view of the gaming, lodging and leisure space heading into 2026. While consumers should benefit from stimulus and businesses appear poised to increase travel, goods are getting renewed interest in a falling rate environment and the cycle is later for services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley is trimming its expose to the group. It cites weaker fundamentals in MGM's core Las Vegas segment along with "tougher sledding" in Macau for the downgrade to Underweight.
Texas Capital
David Bain
Buy
initiated
$56
2026-01-08
Reason
Texas Capital
David Bain
Price Target
$56
2026-01-08
initiated
Buy
Reason
Texas Capital analyst David Bain initiated coverage of MGM Resorts with a Buy rating and $56 price target.
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Texas Capital
Buy
initiated
$56
2026-01-08
Reason
Texas Capital
Price Target
$56
2026-01-08
initiated
Buy
Reason
Texas Capital initiated coverage of MGM Resorts with a Buy rating and $56 price target. The firm believes MGM shares will benefit from improved Las Vegas investor sentiment and fundamentals in 2026, a potential unlocking of BetMGM value and Macau momentum. The analyst also cites expectations for "significant" share repurchases and advancement toward the first integrated casino resort in Japan.
BofA
Shaun Kelley
Neutral
maintain
$35 -> $40
2026-01-05
Reason
BofA
Shaun Kelley
Price Target
$35 -> $40
2026-01-05
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Shaun Kelley raised the firm's price target on MGM Resorts to $40 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The Gaming and Lodging group "appears to be at a crossroads" to start 2026 as the year offers easy comps, OBBB refunds and stimulus, but also still has a stretched consumer after years of inflation, the analyst tells investors. Negative estimate revisions trumped low valuations in 2024 and 2025 and the firm is "fearful this continues in 2026," the analyst added in a note on the group.
About MGM
MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company with national and international locations featuring hotels and casinos, meetings and conference spaces, live and theatrical entertainment experiences, and a range of restaurant, nightlife and retail offerings. The Company’s segments include Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The Las Vegas Strip Resorts segment consists of Aria, Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM. The Regional Operations segment consists of MGM Grand Detroit in Detroit, Michigan; Beau Rivage in Biloxi, Mississippi; Gold Strike Tunica in Tunica; Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey; MGM National Harbor in Prince George’s County, Maryland; MGM Springfield in Springfield, Massachusetts; Empire City in Yonkers, New York, and others. MGM Digital is its online gaming portfolio which is primarily comprised of LeoVegas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
