Based on the provided data and recent market information, I'll analyze whether CBOE is overvalued through multiple valuation metrics and recent performance.
Valuation Analysis:
CBOE's current P/E ratio of 27.09x is relatively high compared to its historical average, suggesting a premium valuation. The EV/EBITDA of 15.86x in Q4 2024 indicates the company is trading at a moderate premium to its peers in the exchange sector.
Financial Performance:
Net revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $524.5 million in Q4 2024, while adjusted EPS increased by 2% to $2.10, slightly missing analyst estimates. The company demonstrated strong organic growth across segments, particularly in cash and spot markets (+14%) and Data Vantage (+8%).
Growth and Market Position:
CBOE achieved record volumes in 2024, with SPX options reaching 3.1 million contracts ADV and VIX options hitting 830,000 contracts ADV. The company's expansion into retail through Robinhood and international markets, particularly in APAC, positions it well for future growth.
Market Sentiment:
The stock has crossed above the average analyst target price of $208.25, with analysts having targets ranging from $174 to $245, indicating mixed views on valuation. Recent analyst actions have been cautious, with JPMorgan downgrading the stock.
Conclusion:
CBOE appears moderately overvalued at current levels based on traditional metrics and recent price appreciation. While the company shows strong operational execution and growth potential, the premium valuation and recent analyst downgrades suggest limited upside potential in the near term.