Genius Sports Ltd's stock fell 5.19% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting investor concerns despite positive revenue forecasts.
The company projects revenue to reach $1.2 billion by 2028, implying a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years, indicating strong growth potential in the sports data market. Additionally, the media arm is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts suggesting media revenue could reach $300 million by 2028. However, the stock has declined from a 52-week high of $13.73 to below $9, which may have contributed to the recent price drop amid overall market strength.
This outlook highlights Genius Sports' adaptability and potential in the evolving sports data landscape, but the recent stock decline raises questions about market confidence in achieving these ambitious targets.
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GENI is 16.00 USD with a low forecast of 13.00 USD and a high forecast of 20.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GENI is 16.00 USD with a low forecast of 13.00 USD and a high forecast of 20.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.550
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
Current: 9.550
Low
13.00
Averages
16.00
High
20.00
Stifel
Jeffrey Stantial
Hold
initiated
$10
2026-01-21
Reason
Stifel
Jeffrey Stantial
Price Target
$10
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
initiated
Hold
Reason
Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial initiated coverage of Genius Sports with a Hold rating and $10 price target. The longstanding bear case revolves around competition for data rights, though the sector seems to be consolidating into a rational duopoly with Genius' contra-service model creating incremental switching costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that while the fundamental multi-year setup appears attractive, shares have outperformed and the firm believes the risk-reward appears balanced.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$16
2026-01-09
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$16
2026-01-09
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo upgraded Genius Sports to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $16 price target.
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Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$13 -> $16
2026-01-09
Reason
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$13 -> $16
2026-01-09
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
As previously reported, Wells Fargo upgraded Genius Sports to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $16, up from $13. As the firm dove into the media/advertising opportunity presented by Genius' management at its November Investor Day, Wells' first response was the company's NFL relationship seems too good to be true given the company's ability to enable live viewership of NFL games across the company's platform partners. The firm sees potential for upside above and beyond management's long-term guide. Further, Wells believes the implied level of direct NFL advertising and related brand/ad opportunities could prove conservative looking out to 2028 for the self-serve portion of the forecast. The firm thinks the NFL could represent $50M-plus of self-serve ad revenue, and it estimates about $350M of Media revenue by 2028 relative to the company's $300M guidance.
Benchmark
analyst
Buy
maintain
$16
2025-12-30
Reason
Benchmark
analyst
Price Target
$16
2025-12-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark is naming Genius Sports as a 2026 EDM Top Idea, citing accelerating media monetization, improving data-driven engagement, and expanding operating leverage. Genius is differentiated by its ability to monetize live content in real time through data, advertising, and interactive formats rather than relying on traditional content licensing alone, argues the analyst, who has a Buy rating and $16 price target on the shares.
About GENI
Genius Sports Limited is the official data, technology and broadcast partner that powers the ecosystem connecting sports, betting and media. It operates through one segment, which consists of providing access to Betting Content Technology, Content and Services; Media Technology Content and Services; and Sports Technology and Services. It builds and supplies technology and services that allow sports leagues to collect, analyze and monetize their data with added tools to deepen fan engagement. It provides sports leagues with bespoke monitoring technology and education services to help protect their competitions and athletes from the threats of match fixing and betting-related corruption. It offers official data, outsourced bookmaking, trading/risk management services and live audio-visual game content that is derived from its streaming partnerships with sports leagues. Its offerings include Live sports data, Pre-game and in-game odds feeds, and BetVision, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
