Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) saw its stock price decline by 8.42% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, despite the broader market showing strength with the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 both up over 0.4%.
The decline in Firefly's stock comes amid a backdrop of positive market sentiment, particularly following a recent analyst upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which raised the price target by 22% to $33. However, concerns about the company's cash burn rate and high price-to-sales ratio have led to cautious investor sentiment, overshadowing the optimistic outlook.
This price movement highlights the volatility in the aerospace sector, where investor confidence can be easily swayed by financial metrics and market conditions. As Firefly prepares for its upcoming launches, the market will be closely watching how it manages its financial health and operational efficiency.
Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 34.83 USD with a low forecast of 27.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 34.83 USD with a low forecast of 27.00 USD and a high forecast of 65.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.860
Low
27.00
Averages
34.83
High
65.00
Current: 28.860
Low
27.00
Averages
34.83
High
65.00
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$29 -> $32
2026-01-20
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$29 -> $32
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $32 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.
Morgan Stanley
Kristine Liwag
Equal Weight
maintain
$27 -> $33
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Kristine Liwag
Price Target
$27 -> $33
2026-01-16
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $33 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. In the Launch market of the Space Tech sector, investors are watching the extent to which lift providers can commercialize new offerings and meaningfully increase cadence this year, says the analyst, who raised the firm's target for FireFly as the firm revisits its valuation multiple ahead of Flight 7's launch.
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KeyBanc
initiated
2025-12-18
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
2025-12-18
initiated
Reason
KeyBanc initiated coverage of FireFly Aerospace with a Sector Weight rating.
JPMorgan
Seth Seifman
Overweight
downgrade
$55 -> $28
2025-11-25
Reason
JPMorgan
Seth Seifman
Price Target
$55 -> $28
2025-11-25
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman lowered the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $28 from $55 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm attributes the stock's underperformance to difficulties in ramping up Alpha launches in the near term. It cut estimates o reflect a more gradual ramp in Alpha launches and a more "company-funded approach" to the Golden Dome from the Department of Defense.
About FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company. The Company provides comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers. It has designed, developed, and deployed its vehicles and dynamic spacecraft solutions to support critical customer missions across the space domain. It has a differentiated and scalable platform of Launch and Spacecraft Solutions with flight heritage. Within Launch, it has two offerings built on common technologies: Alpha and Eclipse. Alpha is a United States-based orbital rocket in the 1,000 kilograms class to successfully reach orbit, with four launches completed. Eclipse, a reusable and scaled up version of Alpha. Its Spacecraft Solutions include Blue Ghost lander (Blue Ghost) and Elytra offerings, highlight the heritage of common technologies from its launch vehicles. Blue Ghost Lander and Elytra are highly maneuverable spacecraft enabled by high-performance rocket engine technology.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
