Should I Buy FLY? FLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

28.860

1 Day change

-1.67%

52 Week Range

73.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

FLY is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is unwilling to wait for a better entry. The current setup is technically weak (bearish MACD momentum and price below the key pivot), and fundamentals show improving revenue but worsening losses and shrinking gross margin. While long-term catalysts (Flight 7, defense programs like “Golden Dome,” and the Feb 26 earnings event) could re-rate the stock, the near-term trend and profitability trajectory don’t support an immediate, impatient entry. I would hold off rather than buy today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral. The MACD histogram is negative (-0.341) and expanding lower, signaling weakening momentum. RSI(6) ~50.4 is neutral, not indicating an oversold bounce. Moving averages are converging, implying indecision, but momentum currently favors downside. Key levels: Pivot at 29.599 is overhead resistance; price (~28.30) is below pivot, which is a negative technical posture. First support is S1 25.959 (room for further downside), then S2 23.709. Upside resistance levels are R1 33.239 and R2 35.489. Short-term stats from similar patterns: modest negative bias (next week expected drift -1.74%). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Bullish skew overall. A low open-interest put/call (0.33) suggests positioning is more call-heavy than put-heavy, and the put/call volume ratio (0.58) also leans bullish. Risk/expectations: Implied volatility is very high (30D IV ~110.8%) versus already-high historical volatility (~100.7%), with IV percentile ~64—options are pricing large moves and event risk. Today’s volume is below the 30D average (~55.8%), so the bullish skew is present but not accompanied by a big surge in activity.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Upcoming event catalysts: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) could reset expectations.
Industry/program catalysts: Ongoing interest in U.S. defense/missile-defense initiatives (e.g., “Golden Dome”) is a positive thematic tailwind for space/defense contractors; analysts also point to Flight 7 as a key narrative-changing milestone.
Analyst actions: Recent price target increases from Goldman ($32 from $29, Neutral) and Morgan Stanley ($33 from $27, Equal Weight) indicate improving expectations into upcoming milestones.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technical weakness: Bearish MACD and price below the 29.599 pivot increase the odds of further downside toward 25.959 support.
Execution risk: Multiple analysts have highlighted launch cadence/track-record concerns and prior mishaps as a key overhang; any delay or setback around Flight 7 could pressure shares.
Event risk priced in: Very high implied volatility implies the market expects large moves; disappointing updates can be punished.
No supportive flows: Hedge fund/insider trends are neutral; no notable accumulation signal from these cohorts.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to $30.78M (+37.59% YoY), which is a strong top-line growth signal. Profitability: Net income was -$140.36M (loss widened; -204.18% YoY) and EPS -0.98 (also worse YoY), showing the company is not trending toward profitability yet. Margins: Gross margin fell to 27.58% (-20.61% YoY), a negative quality-of-growth signal (growth is coming with weaker margins). Overall: improving revenue but deteriorating earnings/margins—fundamentals don’t yet justify chasing the stock at this moment.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed but stabilizing/improving at the margin. After significant cuts in late 2025 (e.g., JPMorgan PT down to $28 from $55; Morgan Stanley PT down to $27 from $52), early 2026 saw PT raises (Goldman to $32; Morgan Stanley to $33) while maintaining Neutral/Equal Weight stances. Current Street stance (pros): Bulls (Deutsche Bank Buy; Roth Buy) emphasize Flight 7 visibility, secular growth in launch/spacecraft, and defense program opportunities such as Golden Dome. Current Street stance (cons): Neutrals highlight execution/launch track record risk and the inherent volatility of the launch business; some see the stock needing proof of consistent cadence before earning a premium multiple. Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trend data are neutral (no notable recent buying/selling signals).

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 34.83 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 29.350

Low

Averages

34.83

High

Current: 29.350

Low

Averages

34.83

High

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$29 -> $32

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$29 -> $32

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $32 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.

Morgan Stanley

Kristine Liwag

Equal Weight

maintain

$27 -> $33

2026-01-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Kristine Liwag

Price Target

$27 -> $33

2026-01-16

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $33 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. In the Launch market of the Space Tech sector, investors are watching the extent to which lift providers can commercialize new offerings and meaningfully increase cadence this year, says the analyst, who raised the firm's target for FireFly as the firm revisits its valuation multiple ahead of Flight 7's launch.

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FLY Should I Buy

FLY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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