Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the analysis of Intuitive Machines' recent performance and market trends, the stock shows positive momentum following strong Q4 results and a record backlog, but it also faces volatility and high valuation.

Buy or sell LUNR stock: Hold, as the stock is in a transitional phase with growth potential but also faces risks.

LUNR stock is predicted to reach $10-$12 in 2025, driven by strong revenue growth and new NASA contracts, but faces risks from technical mission challenges and market volatility.

The S1 support level for LUNR Stock is $7.07 ,The R1 resistant level for LUNR Stock is $9.11.

As of the end of day on 2025-04-02, the price of LUNR Stock was $8.26.

The target price for LUNR Stock according to analyst rating is 15.71, with the highest price target at 21.00 and the lowest at 12.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on LUNR Stock overall.

The market cap of LUNR is $1.3B.

Analysis and Insights

Valuation Metrics

LUNR's valuation metrics suggest a premium relative to its current financial performance. The stock has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.65 and an EV/EBITDA of 1.91, indicating that investors are pricing in significant future growth expectations. However, the company's inconsistent profitability and high debt levels raise concerns about whether these expectations are realistic.

Financial Performance

LUNR reported Q4 revenue of $54.66 million, a 79% year-over-year increase, but this fell short of analyst estimates. The company also reported a net loss for the quarter, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. While the backlog of $328.3 million is a positive sign, the guidance for 2025 revenue ($250-$300 million) is below consensus estimates, suggesting slower-than-expected growth.

Analyst Sentiment

Analysts have mixed views on LUNR. Some firms, like Canaccord Genuity and Roth MKM, maintain a "Strong Buy" rating but have lowered price targets, citing the company's contracted missions with NASA as a positive. However, other analysts, such as those from B of A Securities, have a "Sell" rating, pointing to execution risks and valuation concerns.

Technical Analysis

The stock's technical indicators, such as the RSI (41.28) and MACD (-2.36), suggest oversold conditions, but the price action remains in a downtrend. The Fibonacci levels indicate resistance at $9.01 and support at $6.75, which could be key levels to watch in the near term.

Event Impact

The recent technical issues with the Athena Nova-C lander and the IM-2 mission have raised concerns about the company's ability to execute on its lunar ambitions. These challenges have led to a significant selloff, with the stock dropping over 60% in the past month. While some analysts believe the selloff is overdone, others highlight the risks of investing in a company with high operational complexity and limited profitability.

Conclusion

LUNR appears overvalued given its high valuation metrics, inconsistent profitability, and recent operational setbacks. While the company has a strong backlog and potential for long-term growth, the risks and uncertainties outweigh the current upside. Investors should exercise caution and consider waiting for clearer signs of execution and profitability before entering the stock.

---

Intuitive Machines, Inc. is a diversified space company focused on space exploration. It is a provider and supplier of space products and services that enable sustained robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Its products and services are offered through its four business units: Lunar Access Services, Orbital Services, Lunar Data Services and Space Products and Infrastructure. Its Orbital Services segment is designed to support satellites and stations in Earth and lunar orbits. Orbital Services consists of leveraging its technologies and government funds to establish a foothold in capturing the growing orbital services market. Lunar Data Services is designed to allow to provide lunar network services to National Aeronautics and Space Administration and commercial clients. Space Products and Infrastructure includes propulsion systems, navigation systems, engineering services contracts, lunar mobility vehicles, power infrastructure, and human habitation systems.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) stock is predicted to reach $40 by 2030 in a bullish scenario, driven by successful lunar missions and NASA contracts. A moderate target of $20 is expected if the company faces technical challenges but maintains growth. In a bearish case, the stock may stabilize at $12 due to mission setbacks.

LUNR has a total of 382 employees.