Escalation of Violence in Mexico Impacts Silver Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 25 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AG?
Source: Benzinga
First Majestic Silver Corp's stock fell sharply by 11.11% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting concerns over the escalating violence in Mexico following the death of cartel leader El Mencho.
The violence has raised fears of transport blockades and labor intimidation, which could significantly disrupt silver production in Mexico, the world's largest silver producer. This instability threatens the availability of silver globally, impacting First Majestic's operations and market confidence.
Investors are closely monitoring the situation, as ongoing cartel conflicts could lead to further volatility in silver prices and affect the company's supply chain, making it crucial for First Majestic to navigate these challenges effectively.
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Analyst Views on AG
Wall Street analysts forecast AG stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 26.720
Low
19.03
Averages
22.18
High
24.50
Current: 26.720
Low
19.03
Averages
22.18
High
24.50
About AG
First Majestic Silver Corp. is a mining company. The Company is focused on silver and gold production in Mexico and the United States. It owns and operates approximately 350,000 hectares of land package, which include the San Dimas Silver/Gold Mine, the Santa Elena Silver/Gold Mine, the La Encantada Silver Mine, and a 70% joint venture interest in the Cerro Los Gatos Silver Mine as well as a portfolio of development and exploration assets, including the Jerritt Canyon Gold project located in northeastern Nevada, United States. The San Dimas Silver/Gold Mine is located over 130 kilometers (km) northwest of the city of Durango, Durango State, Mexico. The Santa Elena Silver/Gold Mine is located over 150 km northeast of the city of Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. The La Encantada Silver Mine is an underground mine located in the northern Mexico State of Coahuila, 708 km northeast of Torreon. The Cerro Los Gatos Mine is located around 120 kms south of Chihuahua City, Mexico.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Celsius Holdings Struggles: Celsius Holdings, Inc. experienced a 17.86% decline this week, reflecting investor concerns over its profitability, particularly in a challenging overall market environment.
- Pressure on Precious Metals: First Majestic Silver Corp. dropped 17.69% this week, as rising dollar strength and yields exerted greater market pressure on precious metal companies amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.
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- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $25.00 strike put option is $0.95, and if an investor sells this option, they would commit to buying AG stock at a cost basis of $24.05, representing a 15% discount from the current market price of $29.37, making it attractive for those looking to enter at a lower price.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 3.80% cash return, equating to an annualized yield of 32.29%, known as YieldBoost, highlighting the investment's appeal under current market conditions.
- Call Option Returns: Purchasing AG stock at $29.37 and selling the $33.50 strike call option could yield an 18.39% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, although this may leave potential upside gains unrealized if AG shares rise significantly.
- Risk Assessment: Current data indicates a 57% chance that the $33.50 strike call option will expire worthless, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, thereby enhancing the safety of the investment.
See More
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- Surge in Violence: Following the killing of cartel leader El Mencho, violence erupted across approximately 20 states in Mexico, with cartel gunmen setting vehicles ablaze and erecting roadblocks, indicating instability due to the resulting power vacuum.
- Significant Economic Impact: As the world's largest silver producer, Mexico's three key mines produced over 75 million ounces in 2024, accounting for nearly 10% of global supply; thus, cartel conflicts could lead to transport blockades and labor intimidation, affecting global silver availability.
- Avocado Trade Risks: Michoacán, El Mencho's home state, is crucial for the global avocado trade, where cartel competition disrupts shipments and raises insurance costs, impacting nearly one-third of global avocado supply during conflicts.
- Potential Financial Market Threats: Criminal organizations could exploit financial markets by creating short exposure through derivatives and inciting chaos via kidnappings or sabotage, posing a significant risk to highly leveraged junior miners, especially during transitional periods like after El Mencho's death.
See More
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- Tariff Policy Shift: The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariff policy, stating he exceeded his authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), prompting Trump to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which adds to market uncertainty.
- Dollar Index Decline: Following Trump's tariff announcement, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.1%, leading to increased demand for precious metals like gold, which contributed to the price recovery.
- Mining Stocks Rise: Shares of gold miners Newmont Corp. (NEM) and Barrick Gold (B) increased by 1%, while silver miners Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) and First Majestic (AG) gained 1% and 2% respectively, despite retail sentiment remaining in bearish territory.
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