Chevron's Q4 EPS Forecast Boosts Investor Confidence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 20 2024
0mins
Should l Buy CVX?
Source: Coinmarketcap
Chevron Corp's stock rose by 3.00% as it reached a 20-day high, reflecting positive investor sentiment amid broader market declines.
Analysts at Jefferies projected Chevron's Q4 2025 adjusted EPS at $1.45, which is 2% above consensus, indicating a sustained improvement in profitability. Additionally, the price target was raised from $174 to $189, maintaining a 'Buy' rating, which reflects optimism about the company's future performance and production developments, particularly from its TCO project in Kazakhstan.
This positive outlook comes despite the overall market pressure, as the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices fell by 1.48% and 0.82%, respectively. Investors are likely to focus on Chevron's production updates and developments in Venezuela, which could further influence its market performance.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 189.940
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 189.940
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Export Resumption: Venezuela has resumed exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) for the first time in 15 months, with Chevron shipping 500,000 barrels to the U.S. Gulf Coast this month, a small volume but significant given the current geopolitical tensions.
- Shifting Market Demand: DCO is essential for specific refineries, and with the Iran conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela's oil exports have become a crucial alternative supply, ensuring stability in the U.S. market.
- Strategic Advantage Emerges: Venezuela's oil exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, mitigating current supply risks, with output expected to rise to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day by year-end if sanctions are lifted, significantly impacting the global supply outlook.
- Policy Changes Drive Production: A shift in U.S. sanctions policy has allowed Chevron to operate under an indefinite license, and the new Hydrocarbon Law enhances foreign investment, boosting Venezuela's oil production capabilities.
See More
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- Policy Impact Warning: Chevron has expressed concerns regarding the California Air Resources Board's proposed amendments to the Cap-and-Invest program, stating that these changes could disrupt energy stability and employment, thereby impacting California's economy and energy security.
- Refining Industry Crisis: The company fears that the new regulations could devastate the remaining refineries in California, leading to a collapse of the entire industry, resulting in higher transportation and aviation fuel prices for consumers, substantial job losses, and decreased funding for critical public services.
- Declining Refining Capacity: Chevron highlighted that California's refining capacity has already decreased by nearly 18%, with an increasingly hostile policy environment leading to recent refinery closures, exacerbating the crisis in the industry.
- Rising Fuel Prices: The average gasoline price in California has surpassed $5 per gallon, recently rising to around $5.20 due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, with Chevron executives warning that such policies will make living in California increasingly difficult.
See More
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- Treasury Yield Changes: U.S. Treasury yields fell as the 10-year yield dropped nearly 2 basis points to 4.117%, the 30-year bond yield decreased to 4.734%, and the 2-year note yield declined by almost 3 basis points to 3.563%, reflecting market uncertainty about future economic conditions.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: President Trump warned that Iran would face 'TWENTY TIMES HARDER' consequences if it attempted to halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing market panic and leading to a temporary 10% drop in oil prices.
- G7 Emergency Meeting: G7 energy ministers are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of emergency oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, with previous finance ministers' discussions deemed 'positive' despite no concrete decisions made.
- Role of IEA: The International Energy Agency's Executive Director participated in the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the global economic outlook and the intensifying Middle East conflict, noting that IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks that could be released to alleviate supply pressures.
See More
Oil Prices Decline Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Oil Price Decline: Oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday as investors assessed President Trump's comments about a potential end to the war, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks that could negatively impact the energy sector's profitability.
- Korean Market Recovery: The South Korean Kospi index surged over 5%, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting market optimism in response to Trump's remarks, although overall market uncertainty remains.
- Energy Price Controls: The South Korean government imposed a price cap on fuel products for the first time in 30 years to address soaring gasoline prices, a policy that may affect energy supply chains and consumer spending.
- Bank of England Policy Stalled: The outbreak of war in Iran has hindered the Bank of England's anticipated interest rate cut next week, demonstrating the direct impact of geopolitical events on monetary policy decisions.
See More
Middle East Tensions Boost European Stock Market Open
- European Market Surge: European stock index futures are set to open higher, with the pan-European Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3%, and France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX rising by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively, indicating a positive market sentiment amid Middle East tensions.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Following President Trump's comments about potentially controlling the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plummeted by 10%, with Brent crude falling to $92.25 per barrel; however, prices remain elevated above $100, reflecting concerns over supply chain security.
- U.S. Market Performance: While Asia-Pacific markets rebounded, U.S. stock futures declined, highlighting investor uncertainty regarding future market conditions, particularly in light of oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions.
- Upcoming Earnings Reports: Earnings reports from Saudi Aramco, Volkswagen, and Lindt are on the horizon, with the market closely monitoring these figures to assess corporate performance and outlook in the current economic climate.
See More
Big Oil Stocks Remain Relatively Unchanged Since the Start of the War. What's Behind This?
Oil Price Surge: Oil prices have increased by 37% since the onset of the Iran war, reaching a significant high by Monday's close.
Oil Stocks Performance: Despite the rise in oil prices, major oil companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell have only seen an average stock increase of 1.4% since the war began.
Market Expectations: The minimal movement in big oil stocks contrasts with the common expectation that stock prices of leading oil companies would rise in tandem with oil price increases.
Investor Sentiment: This discrepancy raises questions about investor sentiment and market dynamics in the oil sector amidst geopolitical tensions.
See More
Venezuela Resumes Oil Exports Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Oil Export Resumption: Venezuela has resumed exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) for the first time in 15 months, with Chevron shipping 500,000 barrels to the U.S. Gulf Coast this month, a small volume but significant given the current geopolitical tensions.
- Shifting Market Demand: DCO is essential for specific refineries, and with the Iran conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela's oil exports have become a crucial alternative supply, ensuring stability in the U.S. market.
- Strategic Advantage Emerges: Venezuela's oil exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, mitigating current supply risks, with output expected to rise to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day by year-end if sanctions are lifted, significantly impacting the global supply outlook.
- Policy Changes Drive Production: A shift in U.S. sanctions policy has allowed Chevron to operate under an indefinite license, and the new Hydrocarbon Law enhances foreign investment, boosting Venezuela's oil production capabilities.
See More
Chevron Raises Concerns Over California's Cap-and-Invest Program
- Policy Impact Warning: Chevron has expressed concerns regarding the California Air Resources Board's proposed amendments to the Cap-and-Invest program, stating that these changes could disrupt energy stability and employment, thereby impacting California's economy and energy security.
- Refining Industry Crisis: The company fears that the new regulations could devastate the remaining refineries in California, leading to a collapse of the entire industry, resulting in higher transportation and aviation fuel prices for consumers, substantial job losses, and decreased funding for critical public services.
- Declining Refining Capacity: Chevron highlighted that California's refining capacity has already decreased by nearly 18%, with an increasingly hostile policy environment leading to recent refinery closures, exacerbating the crisis in the industry.
- Rising Fuel Prices: The average gasoline price in California has surpassed $5 per gallon, recently rising to around $5.20 due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, with Chevron executives warning that such policies will make living in California increasingly difficult.
See More
U.S. Treasury Yields Decline as Oil Prices Plummet
- Treasury Yield Changes: U.S. Treasury yields fell as the 10-year yield dropped nearly 2 basis points to 4.117%, the 30-year bond yield decreased to 4.734%, and the 2-year note yield declined by almost 3 basis points to 3.563%, reflecting market uncertainty about future economic conditions.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: President Trump warned that Iran would face 'TWENTY TIMES HARDER' consequences if it attempted to halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing market panic and leading to a temporary 10% drop in oil prices.
- G7 Emergency Meeting: G7 energy ministers are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of emergency oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, with previous finance ministers' discussions deemed 'positive' despite no concrete decisions made.
- Role of IEA: The International Energy Agency's Executive Director participated in the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the global economic outlook and the intensifying Middle East conflict, noting that IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks that could be released to alleviate supply pressures.
See More
Oil Prices Decline Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Oil Price Decline: Oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday as investors assessed President Trump's comments about a potential end to the war, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks that could negatively impact the energy sector's profitability.
- Korean Market Recovery: The South Korean Kospi index surged over 5%, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting market optimism in response to Trump's remarks, although overall market uncertainty remains.
- Energy Price Controls: The South Korean government imposed a price cap on fuel products for the first time in 30 years to address soaring gasoline prices, a policy that may affect energy supply chains and consumer spending.
- Bank of England Policy Stalled: The outbreak of war in Iran has hindered the Bank of England's anticipated interest rate cut next week, demonstrating the direct impact of geopolitical events on monetary policy decisions.
See More
Middle East Tensions Boost European Stock Market Open
- European Market Surge: European stock index futures are set to open higher, with the pan-European Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3%, and France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX rising by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively, indicating a positive market sentiment amid Middle East tensions.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Following President Trump's comments about potentially controlling the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plummeted by 10%, with Brent crude falling to $92.25 per barrel; however, prices remain elevated above $100, reflecting concerns over supply chain security.
- U.S. Market Performance: While Asia-Pacific markets rebounded, U.S. stock futures declined, highlighting investor uncertainty regarding future market conditions, particularly in light of oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions.
- Upcoming Earnings Reports: Earnings reports from Saudi Aramco, Volkswagen, and Lindt are on the horizon, with the market closely monitoring these figures to assess corporate performance and outlook in the current economic climate.
See More
Big Oil Stocks Remain Relatively Unchanged Since the Start of the War. What's Behind This?
Oil Price Surge: Oil prices have increased by 37% since the onset of the Iran war, reaching a significant high by Monday's close.
Oil Stocks Performance: Despite the rise in oil prices, major oil companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell have only seen an average stock increase of 1.4% since the war began.
Market Expectations: The minimal movement in big oil stocks contrasts with the common expectation that stock prices of leading oil companies would rise in tandem with oil price increases.
Investor Sentiment: This discrepancy raises questions about investor sentiment and market dynamics in the oil sector amidst geopolitical tensions.
See More
