Carlyle Group Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy CG?
Source: seekingalpha
Carlyle Group's stock rose by 6.04% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, reflecting positive investor sentiment following its recent earnings report.
The company reported Q4 distributable EPS of $1.01, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.99, and total segment revenue reached $1.09 billion, exceeding expectations. This strong performance indicates sustained profitability improvements and robust growth potential in asset management, with total assets under management growing to $477 billion.
The positive earnings report and strong inflows during Q4 have boosted investor confidence, positioning Carlyle Group favorably in the market as it continues to expand its asset management capabilities.
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Analyst Views on CG
Wall Street analysts forecast CG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CG is 67.91 USD with a low forecast of 53.00 USD and a high forecast of 83.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 55.410
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
Current: 55.410
Low
53.00
Averages
67.91
High
83.00
About CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a global investment company. The Company's segments include Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest. The Global Private Equity segment advises the Company's buyout, growth, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds. The segment also includes the NGP Carry Funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management (NGP). The Global Credit segment advises funds and vehicles that pursue investment strategies including insurance solutions, liquid credit, opportunistic credit, direct lending, asset-backed finance, aviation finance, infrastructure credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment advises global private equity programs that pursue secondary purchases and financing of existing portfolios, managed co-investment programs, and primary fund investments. The Carlyle AlpInvest segment helps investors meet their objectives through tailored portfolio construction and investment selection.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
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- Assets Under Management Surge: By the end of 2025, Carlyle's assets under management reached $477 billion, positioning the firm as a leader in sponsor-backed IPOs, thereby solidifying its market dominance.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: The total segment revenue for Q4 reached $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion, and increasing from $782.5 million in the prior quarter and $948.5 million a year ago, reflecting strong market performance.
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- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
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- Record Performance: Carlyle Group achieved a record fee-related earnings of $1.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth that significantly exceeded initial targets, showcasing robust business growth potential.
- Assets Under Management Surge: By the end of 2025, Carlyle's assets under management reached $477 billion, positioning the firm as a leader in sponsor-backed IPOs, thereby solidifying its market dominance.
- Transaction Fees Soar: The firm reported transaction fees of $225 million in 2025, up nearly 40% year-over-year, which not only highlights strong market performance but also lays a solid foundation for future revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates continued growth into 2026, supported by global wealth expansion and improving capital market conditions, and plans to share multi-year financial targets at the upcoming shareholder update, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported Q4 distributable EPS of $1.01, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.99, and rising from $0.96 in Q3 and $0.92 a year ago, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The total segment revenue for Q4 reached $1.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion, and increasing from $782.5 million in the prior quarter and $948.5 million a year ago, reflecting strong market performance.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Carlyle's total assets under management grew to $477 billion, up 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, driven by a 20% increase in Carlyle AlpInvest AUM, showcasing robust growth potential in asset management.
- Strong Inflows: The firm saw $9.2 billion in inflows during Q4, down from $16.9 billion in Q3, yet total inflows for the year grew by 32% to $53.7 billion, indicating strong demand in global credit and asset-backed financing sectors.
See More
Carlyle Group Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Carlyle Group reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.01, exceeding expectations by $0.02, indicating robust performance in investment management and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, with a record date of February 16, 2026, and a payment date of February 20, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Total Annual Distribution: The Board announced an aggregate distribution of $1.40 for common shareholders for the full year 2025, reflecting strong profitability and cash flow management, which enhances shareholder value.
- Investment Management Outlook: Carlyle faces challenges in investment management performance in 2026, necessitating close attention to market dynamics and strategic adjustments to ensure continued growth and competitiveness.
See More
Market Dynamics: Earnings Reports and IPOs Ahead
- Earnings Release: Under Armour is set to announce its Q3 earnings before the market opens on February 6, with analysts predicting a mid-single-digit revenue decline due to ongoing tariff impacts and soft demand, prompting investor interest in the company's strategic repositioning post-split with NBA star Stephen Curry.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the same day, and market participants will closely monitor his insights on balancing cooling inflation against a resilient economy, which could influence expectations for the timing and pace of rate cuts, especially following delays in labor data.
- IPO Developments: Liftoff Mobile is debuting on Nasdaq with a target valuation exceeding $5 billion, representing a test of investor appetite for new companies, particularly with high-profile names like SpaceX and Open AI poised for future listings.
- Market Interest: In addition to Liftoff Mobile, Jennifer Garner's food company Once Upon a Farm is also slated to start trading on the NYSE, further indicating strong market interest in emerging enterprises and investors' risk appetite.
See More
Multiple Companies Set to Report Q4 2025 Earnings
- Philip Morris Earnings Outlook: The expected EPS for Q4 2025 is $1.67, representing a 7.74% increase year-over-year, showcasing the company's ability to consistently exceed market expectations and enhancing its competitive edge in the tobacco industry.
- Cboe Global Markets Performance: The forecasted EPS is $2.93, reflecting a significant 39.52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong recovery and improved profitability that may attract more investor interest.
- Biogen Earnings Warning: The anticipated EPS is $1.60, a substantial 53.49% decrease compared to last year, highlighting significant challenges the company faces, which could impact market confidence and stock performance.
- AerCap's Stability: The expected EPS is $3.31, unchanged from last year, indicating the company's resilience in the transportation sector, maintaining profitability despite industry fluctuations.
See More
