ASML Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Amid Market Downturn
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy ASML?
Source: Benzinga
ASML Holding NV's stock fell 5.00% as it crossed below the 20-day SMA, reflecting broader market weakness with the Nasdaq-100 down 2.21% and S&P 500 down 0.86%.
Despite the stock's decline, ASML reported strong Q4 2025 earnings with €13.15 billion in new bookings, an 88% increase year-over-year, and net sales of €32.6 billion, a 15.5% rise. The company also announced a €12 billion share buyback program, which is expected to enhance investor confidence and support stock price recovery.
The robust demand for ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines underscores its critical role in the semiconductor market. With a strong order backlog and optimistic sales projections for 2026, ASML remains well-positioned for future growth despite current market challenges.
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Analyst Views on ASML
Wall Street analysts forecast ASML stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASML is 1344 USD with a low forecast of 1140 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1350.160
Low
1140
Averages
1344
High
1500
Current: 1350.160
Low
1140
Averages
1344
High
1500
About ASML
ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Nvidia Valuation Surge: Nvidia surpassed a $1 trillion valuation in 2023, becoming the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $4.39 trillion, reflecting the strong demand for its GPU chips driven by AI, thereby solidifying its market leadership.
- Samsung Profit Surge: Samsung's stock has risen 217% over the past 12 months, with operating profit expected to nearly triple in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, benefiting from RAM prices projected to rise over 50%, highlighting its critical role in AI hardware demand.
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- ASML's Market Monopoly: ASML, the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines globally, has a market cap of $542 billion, with a 20.6% revenue increase in 2025 and a 48% growth in orders, showcasing its significant market position and growth potential despite being further from the trillion-dollar mark.
See More
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- Dow Hits Record High: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.47% to reach an all-time high, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery, particularly amid strong rebounds in tech and chipmaker stocks.
- Consumer Confidence Rises: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations of 55.0, indicating enhanced consumer confidence that could drive future spending.
- Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged over 11% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and signaling renewed investor interest and confidence in crypto assets.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
See More
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- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.60%, reaching an all-time high, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by strong tech earnings results.
- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
See More
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- Strong January Performance: The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) surged 12% in January, reflecting robust market confidence in the semiconductor sector, particularly driven by TSMC's earnings and soaring memory prices, highlighting the ETF's significance in diversified investments.
- Memory Price Surge: According to Trendforce, traditional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 90% to 95% compared to the previous quarter, while NAND flash prices are projected to increase by 55% to 60%, indicating strong demand from AI infrastructure development, further boosting stocks like Micron.
- TSMC Capital Expenditure Outlook: Although TSMC is not part of the SOXX ETF, its forecast for capital spending of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026, a 40% increase from 2025, underscores the long-term growth potential of the semiconductor industry, attracting investor interest.
- Market Volatility and Outlook: Despite a 4.6% decline in SOXX in February, capital expenditure forecasts from major cloud companies have exceeded market expectations, suggesting that AI infrastructure development will continue to grow strongly in 2026, positioning semiconductor stocks to benefit from this long-term trend.
See More
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- Samsung Nears Trillion-Dollar Valuation: Samsung Electronics, with a current market cap of $772.8 billion and a 217% increase over the past year, is set to benefit from a projected 50% rise in RAM prices by Q1 2026, which could nearly triple its operating profit in Q4 2024, highlighting its strong potential in the AI market.
- Micron's Rapid Growth: Micron Technology, valued at $469.5 billion, has surged 373% in the past year, with a 57% year-over-year revenue increase and a 180% net income surge in Q1 of fiscal 2026, indicating significant opportunities despite being further from the trillion-dollar mark.
- ASML's Market Monopoly: ASML, with a market cap of $542 billion, is the sole provider of EUV lithography machines, achieving a 20.6% revenue growth and a 32.4% net income increase in 2025, reflecting strong demand in the semiconductor sector.
- Surge in Lithography Orders: ASML's orders for new lithography machines skyrocketed by 48%, from 18.89 million in 2024 to 28 million in 2025, underscoring its critical role in semiconductor production and potential to reach a trillion-dollar valuation.
See More
GM, TRV, and ASML: Three Major Companies Increasing Buybacks in 2026
General Motors Buyback Program: General Motors has announced a significant $6 billion buyback program aimed at reducing its share count and enhancing shareholder value, following a strong performance in 2025 with a total return of 54%.
Travelers Companies Performance: Travelers Companies also reported strong performance in 2025, with a total return of 22% and a $3.1 billion buyback, which helped lower its outstanding share count by approximately 4%.
ASML's Buyback Strategy: ASML has authorized an additional $5 billion share repurchase program, contributing to a total buyback capacity of around 11.1% of its market capitalization, which is expected to support its long-term shareholder value.
Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations: Analysts are optimistic about the future performance of GM, TRV, and ASML, suggesting that these companies represent compelling investment opportunities, with potential for significant share price increases following strong earnings reports.
See More
