Analyst Upgrades Ulta Beauty Amid Makeup Resurgence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy ULTA?
Source: seekingalpha
Ulta Beauty Inc's stock rose by 3.01%, reaching a 20-day high, despite the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 both experiencing declines.
The increase in Ulta's stock price is attributed to Jefferies analyst Sydney Wagner upgrading the stock rating from Hold to Buy and raising the target price by 26% to $700, reflecting optimism about the company's growth potential amid a resurgence in makeup demand, which accounts for 38% of its sales. Additionally, Ulta's strategic shift towards a more proactive merchandise approach is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and drive sustained growth.
This positive outlook from analysts, combined with the company's strategic initiatives, positions Ulta Beauty favorably in the beauty market, suggesting that the stock may continue to perform well as demand for makeup products increases.
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Analyst Views on ULTA
Wall Street analysts forecast ULTA stock price to rise
22 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 570.160
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
Current: 570.160
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
About ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty United States beauty retailer and the premier beauty destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skincare products, haircare products and salon services. The Company operates approximately 1,451 retail stores across 50 states and distributes products through its Website, which includes a collection of tips, tutorials, and social content. The Company’s business includes a differentiated assortment of approximately 29,000 beauty products across a variety of categories and price points, as well as a variety of beauty services, including salon services, in more than 1,400 stores predominantly located in convenient, high-traffic locations. It also offers digital experiences delivered through its Website, Ulta.com, and its mobile applications. The Company’s brands include Ulta Beauty Collection, about-face, Ariana Grande, CHANEL, FENTY BEAUTY by Rihanna, It Cosmetics, LolaVie, OUAI, PAT McGRATH LABS, Tula, and NYX Professional Makeup.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Customer Loyalty: Ulta Beauty is projected to hold a 9% market share in the $118 billion U.S. beauty market by 2024, and its loyal customer base allows it to raise prices without significant backlash, despite increasing competition.
- International Expansion Strategy: Ulta opened its first stores in Mexico and the Middle East in 2025, aiming to broaden its customer base; this international expansion presents new growth opportunities despite current stock price challenges.
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- New Store Expansion Plans: Walmart plans to open 20 new stores by 2027, which will further solidify its market position and support future revenue growth, despite a high price-to-earnings ratio of 42.3 indicating strong investor expectations for its performance.
- Ulta Beauty's Market Positioning: Ulta Beauty holds approximately 9% market share in the U.S. beauty market, and its loyal customer base mitigates the risk of backlash when raising prices, showcasing its unique pricing power amidst competitive pressures.
- International Expansion Strategy: Ulta Beauty is expanding internationally by opening new stores in Mexico and the Middle East, which, despite challenges, will help attract more customers globally and enhance its brand influence.
See More
Analyst Upgrades Ulta Beauty Amid Makeup Resurgence
- Makeup Market Potential: Jefferies analyst Sydney Wagner highlights that makeup remains the highest-velocity category in beauty, accounting for 38% of Ulta's sales, indicating strong demand and growth opportunities in this sector.
- Stock Rating Upgrade: Wagner upgrades Ulta's stock rating from Hold to Buy and raises the target price by 26% to $700, reflecting optimism about the company's future performance, particularly amid a resurgence in makeup demand.
- Merchandise Optimization: Ulta has recently shifted its merchandise assortment from a “catch-up” strategy to a more proactive approach with relevant brands and trend-led launches, enhancing the pace and relevance of new brand introductions and strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Strengthened Industry Position: As the makeup cycle accelerates, Ulta's status as the most comprehensive beauty destination is expected to drive sustained growth in market share and earnings durability, with analysts generally bullish on its future prospects.
See More
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- Strategic Shift: Ulta Beauty is shifting its corporate strategy to better differentiate itself from rivals and capitalize on the ongoing demand for beauty products, with Jefferies upgrading its rating from hold to buy and raising the price target from $635 to $700, indicating a potential upside of 26.5%.
- Market Growth Potential: The global beauty market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5% through 2030, despite concerns about cooling demand, and Ulta's stock has risen approximately 55% over the past 12 months, reflecting its strong market performance.
- New Brand Introductions: Ulta is enhancing its competitive edge by adding emerging makeup brands, with improved pace and relevance in brand additions since the change in merchandise leadership, leading to a more proactive market approach.
- Importance of Makeup Sales: Makeup accounts for about 38% of Ulta's sales, and analysts believe that a makeup-driven business cycle will support more durable traffic and sales frequency, potentially leading to higher-quality revenue and incremental margin opportunities in the future.
See More
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- American Express's Unique Advantage: American Express accounts for 15.6% of Berkshire's portfolio, with its unique business model attracting high-spending customers through annual fees and premium rewards programs, which are expected to drive profitability and market share growth.
- Apple's Ecosystem: Although Berkshire has reduced its stake, Apple remains its largest holding at 19.2%, with a 23% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales indicating its competitive strength and long-term growth potential in the market.
- AI Investment Outlook: Apple's $1 billion annual partnership with Alphabet's Gemini for AI development will enhance its capabilities and reduce costs, further solidifying its market position in AI and demonstrating strategic foresight in technological innovation.
See More
UPS Subsidiary Happy Returns Expands to 10,000 Drop-off Locations
- Network Expansion: Happy Returns announced the addition of 1,700 drop-off locations, bringing its total to 10,000, which now serves 79% of the U.S. population, significantly enhancing consumer return convenience and improving economic outcomes for retailers.
- Return Efficiency Improvement: Leveraging UPS's logistics network, consumer return packages reach retailers in an average of 7 days, with some deliveries completed in as little as 3.6 days, helping retailers accelerate inventory turnover and boost sales efficiency.
- Fraud Prevention Technology: Happy Returns has implemented an AI risk scoring system that identifies potential fraudulent activities at the return request stage, reducing losses for retailers and enhancing the security and reliability of the return process.
- Market Competitive Advantage: By offering boxless and label-free return services, Happy Returns not only improves customer experience but also solidifies its leadership position in the returns consolidation market through partnerships with major retailers.
See More
Analysis of Pricing Power in Walmart and Ulta Beauty
- Walmart's Pricing Power: With over 10,900 stores attracting more than 280 million customers weekly, Walmart can exert price pressure on suppliers, enabling it to maintain higher margins amid inflationary pressures.
- Customer Loyalty: Ulta Beauty is projected to hold a 9% market share in the $118 billion U.S. beauty market by 2024, and its loyal customer base allows it to raise prices without significant backlash, despite increasing competition.
- International Expansion Strategy: Ulta opened its first stores in Mexico and the Middle East in 2025, aiming to broaden its customer base; this international expansion presents new growth opportunities despite current stock price challenges.
- Investor Considerations: Although Walmart's forward P/E ratio stands at 42.3, indicating it may be overvalued, its growth potential through advertising and Walmart+ membership services keeps it on investors' radar as a strong retail stock.
See More
Strategic Significance of Retailers' Pricing Power
- Walmart's Pricing Power: Walmart leverages its scale with over 10,900 stores and 280 million weekly visitors to exert pressure on suppliers, allowing it to maintain low prices that attract higher-income consumers and enhance its competitive edge.
- New Store Expansion Plans: Walmart plans to open 20 new stores by 2027, which will further solidify its market position and support future revenue growth, despite a high price-to-earnings ratio of 42.3 indicating strong investor expectations for its performance.
- Ulta Beauty's Market Positioning: Ulta Beauty holds approximately 9% market share in the U.S. beauty market, and its loyal customer base mitigates the risk of backlash when raising prices, showcasing its unique pricing power amidst competitive pressures.
- International Expansion Strategy: Ulta Beauty is expanding internationally by opening new stores in Mexico and the Middle East, which, despite challenges, will help attract more customers globally and enhance its brand influence.
See More
Analyst Upgrades Ulta Beauty Amid Makeup Resurgence
- Makeup Market Potential: Jefferies analyst Sydney Wagner highlights that makeup remains the highest-velocity category in beauty, accounting for 38% of Ulta's sales, indicating strong demand and growth opportunities in this sector.
- Stock Rating Upgrade: Wagner upgrades Ulta's stock rating from Hold to Buy and raises the target price by 26% to $700, reflecting optimism about the company's future performance, particularly amid a resurgence in makeup demand.
- Merchandise Optimization: Ulta has recently shifted its merchandise assortment from a “catch-up” strategy to a more proactive approach with relevant brands and trend-led launches, enhancing the pace and relevance of new brand introductions and strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Strengthened Industry Position: As the makeup cycle accelerates, Ulta's status as the most comprehensive beauty destination is expected to drive sustained growth in market share and earnings durability, with analysts generally bullish on its future prospects.
See More
Ulta Beauty's Strategic Shift Likely to Boost Stock Price
- Strategic Shift: Ulta Beauty is shifting its corporate strategy to better differentiate itself from rivals and capitalize on the ongoing demand for beauty products, with Jefferies upgrading its rating from hold to buy and raising the price target from $635 to $700, indicating a potential upside of 26.5%.
- Market Growth Potential: The global beauty market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5% through 2030, despite concerns about cooling demand, and Ulta's stock has risen approximately 55% over the past 12 months, reflecting its strong market performance.
- New Brand Introductions: Ulta is enhancing its competitive edge by adding emerging makeup brands, with improved pace and relevance in brand additions since the change in merchandise leadership, leading to a more proactive market approach.
- Importance of Makeup Sales: Makeup accounts for about 38% of Ulta's sales, and analysts believe that a makeup-driven business cycle will support more durable traffic and sales frequency, potentially leading to higher-quality revenue and incremental margin opportunities in the future.
See More
