Will Usiminas' Write-Down and Diminished Outlook Alter Ternium's (TX) Investment Story?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 30 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TX?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Ternium's Financial Results: Ternium S.A. reported third-quarter 2025 sales of US$3.96 billion and a net loss of US$270 million, largely due to a US$405 million write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas, alongside weaker revenue and earnings compared to the previous year.
Dividend and Future Outlook: The company announced a US$0.90 per ADS interim dividend, reaffirming its commitment to shareholder returns despite near-term profitability pressures, while forecasting $18.4 billion in revenue and $828.7 million in earnings by 2028.
Investment Considerations: Investors are encouraged to assess Ternium's ability to navigate challenges such as global steel oversupply and margin pressures, which could impact free cash flow and capital project returns, while also considering varying fair value estimates for the stock.
Research and Analysis: Simply Wall St provides a comprehensive analysis of Ternium's financial health, highlighting key rewards and risks, and emphasizes the importance of independent research in making investment decisions.
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Analyst Views on TX
Wall Street analysts forecast TX stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 38.760
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
Current: 38.760
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
About TX
Ternium S.A. is a producer of steel products. The Company produces finished and semi-finished steel products and iron ore, which are sold either directly to steel manufacturers, steel processors or end users. The Company operates through two segments: Steel and Mining. The Steel segment includes the sales of steel products, and the Mining segment includes the sales of iron ore products, which are primarily inter-company. The Steel segment comprises three operating segments: Mexico, the Southern Region, and Other Markets. In the steel segment, steel products include slabs, billets, and round bars (steel in its basic, semi-finished state), hot-rolled coils and sheets, bars and stirrups, wire rods, cold-rolled coils and sheets, tin plate, hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets and pre-painted sheets, steel pipes and tubular products, beams, roll-formed products, and other products. In the mining segment, iron ore is sold as concentrates (fines) and pellets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
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- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
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- Dividend Proposal: Ternium's board has proposed an interim dividend of $1.80 per ADS, totaling $353 million, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability amid trade-driven market challenges, indicating resilience despite external pressures.
- Annual Dividend Plan: The company plans to pay an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, amounting to $530 million based on total outstanding shares, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and stable cash flow amidst market volatility.
- Interim Dividend Details: The interim dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite Ternium's GAAP EPS of $0.62 missing estimates by $0.28 and revenue of $3.77 billion falling short by $10 million, the company's ability to maintain dividend payments highlights its resilience in a challenging market environment.
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Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
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Ternium to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
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- Revenue Expectations: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $3.78 billion, representing a 2.3% year-over-year decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Ternium has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a high level of reliability in earnings forecasts, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
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- Investment Opportunities: Analyst Tyler Crowe emphasizes that while many investors focus on large companies, significant investment opportunities still exist within smaller firms, particularly those that are not widely recognized.
- Market Potential: Crowe points out that certain lesser-known stocks could evolve into larger businesses in the future, suggesting that investors willing to look beyond mainstream options may reap substantial rewards.
- Investment Strategy: By focusing on these undervalued stocks, investors can uncover unique opportunities in a competitive market, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and potential returns.
- Long-Term Perspective: Crowe's analysis indicates that while these stocks may not be valued in the short term, they have the potential to become market leaders in the long run, making them worthy of investor attention.
See More
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
See More
Contrarian Capital Reduces Stake in Core Natural Resources
- Stake Reduction Details: Contrarian Capital Management reduced its stake in Core Natural Resources by 187,676 shares in Q4 2026, resulting in a decrease to 0.7359% of the fund's 13F assets, indicating a waning market confidence in the stock.
- Financial Impact Analysis: This reduction led to a decline in the quarter-end value of Core Natural Resources by approximately $15.51 million, highlighting how both market price movements and share sales have affected the company's market performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: As of February 13, 2026, Core Natural Resources shares were priced at $91.51, reflecting an 8.03% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.76 percentage points, suggesting insufficient market competitiveness.
- Investor Outlook: The coal market has stabilized post-global energy shock, and Core's future earnings will depend on whether coal prices remain above production costs, making it crucial for investors to monitor this gap to assess the sustainability of the company's cash flow.
See More
Ternium Proposes $1.80/ADS Interim Dividend Amid Market Challenges
- Dividend Proposal: Ternium's board has proposed an interim dividend of $1.80 per ADS, totaling $353 million, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability amid trade-driven market challenges, indicating resilience despite external pressures.
- Annual Dividend Plan: The company plans to pay an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, amounting to $530 million based on total outstanding shares, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and stable cash flow amidst market volatility.
- Interim Dividend Details: The interim dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite Ternium's GAAP EPS of $0.62 missing estimates by $0.28 and revenue of $3.77 billion falling short by $10 million, the company's ability to maintain dividend payments highlights its resilience in a challenging market environment.
See More
Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
See More
Ternium to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Date: Ternium is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 18 before the market opens, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.77, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 283.3%, indicating significant improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $3.78 billion, representing a 2.3% year-over-year decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Ternium has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a high level of reliability in earnings forecasts, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Exploring Undervalued Potential Stocks
- Investment Opportunities: Analyst Tyler Crowe emphasizes that while many investors focus on large companies, significant investment opportunities still exist within smaller firms, particularly those that are not widely recognized.
- Market Potential: Crowe points out that certain lesser-known stocks could evolve into larger businesses in the future, suggesting that investors willing to look beyond mainstream options may reap substantial rewards.
- Investment Strategy: By focusing on these undervalued stocks, investors can uncover unique opportunities in a competitive market, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and potential returns.
- Long-Term Perspective: Crowe's analysis indicates that while these stocks may not be valued in the short term, they have the potential to become market leaders in the long run, making them worthy of investor attention.
See More
