Will Oil Stocks Experience a Decline? Insights from the Charts.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 06 2026
0mins
Source: Barron's
Crude Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices have increased significantly, with the United States Brent Oil Fund rising nearly 25% in a week due to heightened tensions in the Middle East.
Investor Sentiment: Investors are preparing for potential supply disruptions, leading to increased activity in the oil market.
Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, stocks in the oil sector may be due for a pause or a tactical pullback.
Market Outlook: The current market conditions suggest a cautious approach as volatility in the oil sector continues.
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Analyst Views on MPC
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 248.050
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 248.050
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream, and midstream energy company. The Company's segment includes Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, to buyers on the spot market and through long-term supply contracts with dealers who operate locations under the ARCO brand.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US Stocks Close Higher: S&P 500 Hits All-Time High
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.61% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.76%, reaching all-time highs, indicating strong demand for tech stocks amid falling oil prices and progress in US-Iran peace talks.
- Oil Price Volatility: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 2.5-week low as US-Iran negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz progressed, although military actions by US Central Command pressured market sentiment, leading to declines in energy stocks.
- Economic Data Impact: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to a 13-month high of 0.14, surpassing expectations, while a slight decline in the consumer confidence index reflects the complexities of economic recovery, potentially influencing future market trends.
- Earnings Reports: As of Tuesday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies reported earnings above expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, although excluding the tech sector, the increase is only 3%, highlighting disparities across industries.
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- Marathon Petroleum Profit Growth: Marathon Petroleum achieved earnings of $1.73 per share in Q1 2026, which adjusted to $1.65 after removing one-time items, significantly higher than the $0.24 loss per share reported in the same quarter of 2025, reflecting an improvement in the company's refining profitability.
- Phillips 66 Adjusted Earnings: Phillips 66's adjusted earnings for Q1 2026 were $0.49 per share, a notable improvement from a loss of $0.90 per share in Q1 2025, yet a substantial decline from $2.47 in Q4 2025, indicating the impact of seasonal fluctuations on performance.
- Geopolitical Risk Impact: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led Phillips 66 to report an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, highlighting the adverse effects of high oil prices on refining operations, prompting investors to carefully assess the risks of short-term investment strategies.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Recovery: Valero Energy reported Q1 earnings of $4.22 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.90 per share in Q1 2025, and after excluding one-time items, the profit stands at $0.89, showcasing the company's robust performance in a recovering market and boosting investor confidence.
- Marathon Petroleum's Resurgence: Marathon Petroleum's Q1 earnings reached $1.73 per share, with a post-adjustment figure of $1.65, significantly higher than the $0.24 loss reported in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in profitability despite a decline from the previous quarter's $4.07, reflecting the volatility in refining margins.
- Phillips 66's Challenges: Phillips 66 reported adjusted earnings of $0.49 per share in Q1, a notable improvement from a $0.90 loss in the same quarter of 2025, yet it fell sharply from $2.47 in the previous quarter, highlighting the pressure on profitability amid rising energy costs.
- Geopolitical Impact: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher, with Phillips 66 reporting an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, indicating the adverse effects of elevated energy costs on the refining sector and increasing uncertainty for the summer driving season.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Recovery: Valero Energy reported Q1 2026 earnings of $4.22 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.90 per share in Q1 2025, indicating robust recovery in refining operations, although adjusted profit of $0.89 per share reflects ongoing market demand improvements.
- Marathon Petroleum's Bright Performance: Marathon Petroleum achieved Q1 2026 earnings of $1.73 per share, with adjusted earnings of $1.65, significantly up from a loss of $0.24 per share in Q1 2025, showcasing a gradual return to profitability despite a drop from the previous quarter's $4.07.
- Phillips 66's Challenges: Phillips 66's Q1 2026 adjusted earnings were $0.49 per share, a notable improvement from a loss of $0.90 per share in Q1 2025, yet a substantial decline from $2.47 in Q4 2025, highlighting profitability pressures amid high oil prices.
- Geopolitical Impact Intensifies: The ongoing Middle Eastern conflict has driven oil prices higher, with Phillips 66 reporting an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, indicating the adverse effects of elevated energy costs on refining operations, prompting investors to carefully assess short-term trading risks.
See More
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- Capacity Expansion: U.S. refiners have ramped up jet fuel production to over 2 million barrels per day, nearing record levels, driven by increased refining capacity and maximized yields, indicating a robust recovery in the refining sector.
- Market Impact: Since the onset of the Iran war, U.S. jet fuel production has surged by nearly 290,000 barrels per day, reflecting market pressures from supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure, leading to soaring fuel prices and higher margins for refiners.
- Marathon Petroleum's Growth: Marathon Petroleum has increased jet fuel capacity by 30,000 barrels per day at its Garyville refinery in Louisiana and plans to further raise capacity at its Robinson refinery in Illinois by 10,000 barrels per day in Q3, demonstrating the company's commitment to the jet fuel market.
- Price Surge: Jet fuel prices at the U.S. Gulf Coast reached an all-time high of $4.73 per gallon on April 2, with overall U.S. jet fuel prices expected to average $3.33 per gallon in 2026, nearly three-quarters above pre-war estimates, reflecting market concerns about future pricing.
See More
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- Board Expansion: Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund has appointed Michael J. Hennigan as an independent director, increasing the board to six members, five of whom are independent, aiming to enhance the board's independence and expertise.
- Rich Industry Experience: Hennigan brings decades of leadership experience in the energy sector, having served as Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum and MPLX, and his extensive industry knowledge is expected to provide strategic guidance to the company.
- Driving Long-Term Value: Chairman Jim Baker stated that Hennigan's addition will enhance the company's competitiveness in the evolving energy infrastructure landscape, helping to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver long-term value for shareholders.
- Clear Investment Objectives: The Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund aims to provide a high after-tax total return, planning to invest at least 80% of its assets in securities of energy infrastructure companies, ensuring cash distributions to shareholders.
See More
US Stocks Close Higher: S&P 500 Hits All-Time High
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.61% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.76%, reaching all-time highs, indicating strong demand for tech stocks amid falling oil prices and progress in US-Iran peace talks.
- Oil Price Volatility: WTI crude oil prices fell to a 2.5-week low as US-Iran negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz progressed, although military actions by US Central Command pressured market sentiment, leading to declines in energy stocks.
- Economic Data Impact: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to a 13-month high of 0.14, surpassing expectations, while a slight decline in the consumer confidence index reflects the complexities of economic recovery, potentially influencing future market trends.
- Earnings Reports: As of Tuesday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies reported earnings above expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, although excluding the tech sector, the increase is only 3%, highlighting disparities across industries.
See More
U.S. Refiners Show Significant Earnings Improvement in Q1 2026
- Valero Energy Recovery: Valero Energy reported earnings of $4.22 per share in Q1 2026, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.90 per share in Q1 2025, and after excluding one-time items, the profit stands at $0.89, showcasing the company's resilience in a complex market environment.
- Marathon Petroleum Profit Growth: Marathon Petroleum achieved earnings of $1.73 per share in Q1 2026, which adjusted to $1.65 after removing one-time items, significantly higher than the $0.24 loss per share reported in the same quarter of 2025, reflecting an improvement in the company's refining profitability.
- Phillips 66 Adjusted Earnings: Phillips 66's adjusted earnings for Q1 2026 were $0.49 per share, a notable improvement from a loss of $0.90 per share in Q1 2025, yet a substantial decline from $2.47 in Q4 2025, indicating the impact of seasonal fluctuations on performance.
- Geopolitical Risk Impact: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led Phillips 66 to report an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, highlighting the adverse effects of high oil prices on refining operations, prompting investors to carefully assess the risks of short-term investment strategies.
See More
U.S. Refiners' Q1 Earnings Review Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Strong Earnings Recovery: Valero Energy reported Q1 earnings of $4.22 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.90 per share in Q1 2025, and after excluding one-time items, the profit stands at $0.89, showcasing the company's robust performance in a recovering market and boosting investor confidence.
- Marathon Petroleum's Resurgence: Marathon Petroleum's Q1 earnings reached $1.73 per share, with a post-adjustment figure of $1.65, significantly higher than the $0.24 loss reported in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in profitability despite a decline from the previous quarter's $4.07, reflecting the volatility in refining margins.
- Phillips 66's Challenges: Phillips 66 reported adjusted earnings of $0.49 per share in Q1, a notable improvement from a $0.90 loss in the same quarter of 2025, yet it fell sharply from $2.47 in the previous quarter, highlighting the pressure on profitability amid rising energy costs.
- Geopolitical Impact: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher, with Phillips 66 reporting an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, indicating the adverse effects of elevated energy costs on the refining sector and increasing uncertainty for the summer driving season.
See More
U.S. Refiners' Q1 Earnings Review and Outlook
- Strong Earnings Recovery: Valero Energy reported Q1 2026 earnings of $4.22 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.90 per share in Q1 2025, indicating robust recovery in refining operations, although adjusted profit of $0.89 per share reflects ongoing market demand improvements.
- Marathon Petroleum's Bright Performance: Marathon Petroleum achieved Q1 2026 earnings of $1.73 per share, with adjusted earnings of $1.65, significantly up from a loss of $0.24 per share in Q1 2025, showcasing a gradual return to profitability despite a drop from the previous quarter's $4.07.
- Phillips 66's Challenges: Phillips 66's Q1 2026 adjusted earnings were $0.49 per share, a notable improvement from a loss of $0.90 per share in Q1 2025, yet a substantial decline from $2.47 in Q4 2025, highlighting profitability pressures amid high oil prices.
- Geopolitical Impact Intensifies: The ongoing Middle Eastern conflict has driven oil prices higher, with Phillips 66 reporting an $839 million mark-to-market loss from hedging activities in Q1, indicating the adverse effects of elevated energy costs on refining operations, prompting investors to carefully assess short-term trading risks.
See More
U.S. Jet Fuel Production Near Record Highs Amid Supply Constraints
- Capacity Expansion: U.S. refiners have ramped up jet fuel production to over 2 million barrels per day, nearing record levels, driven by increased refining capacity and maximized yields, indicating a robust recovery in the refining sector.
- Market Impact: Since the onset of the Iran war, U.S. jet fuel production has surged by nearly 290,000 barrels per day, reflecting market pressures from supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure, leading to soaring fuel prices and higher margins for refiners.
- Marathon Petroleum's Growth: Marathon Petroleum has increased jet fuel capacity by 30,000 barrels per day at its Garyville refinery in Louisiana and plans to further raise capacity at its Robinson refinery in Illinois by 10,000 barrels per day in Q3, demonstrating the company's commitment to the jet fuel market.
- Price Surge: Jet fuel prices at the U.S. Gulf Coast reached an all-time high of $4.73 per gallon on April 2, with overall U.S. jet fuel prices expected to average $3.33 per gallon in 2026, nearly three-quarters above pre-war estimates, reflecting market concerns about future pricing.
See More
Kayne Anderson Energy Fund Appoints New Director
- Board Expansion: Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund has appointed Michael J. Hennigan as an independent director, increasing the board to six members, five of whom are independent, aiming to enhance the board's independence and expertise.
- Rich Industry Experience: Hennigan brings decades of leadership experience in the energy sector, having served as Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum and MPLX, and his extensive industry knowledge is expected to provide strategic guidance to the company.
- Driving Long-Term Value: Chairman Jim Baker stated that Hennigan's addition will enhance the company's competitiveness in the evolving energy infrastructure landscape, helping to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver long-term value for shareholders.
- Clear Investment Objectives: The Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund aims to provide a high after-tax total return, planning to invest at least 80% of its assets in securities of energy infrastructure companies, ensuring cash distributions to shareholders.
See More
